1、 Price data
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1221.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1235 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.11% and a year-on-year increase of 0.83%. The commodity index of light soda ash on August 27 was 76.41, up 1.71 points compared with yesterday, 35.17% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 21.00% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price trend of local refining petroleum coke is fair, mainly due to the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and rising, the price of medium and high sulfur coke prebaked anode is stable, and the resource of medium and high sulfur coke is limited, and the market price is rising.
Upstream: in the near future, the oil price may continue to consolidate at a high level. On the one hand, under the influence of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the shutdown of oil plants will reduce the impact, and on the other hand, it will be a good support for the decline of inventory for several weeks. However, in the medium term, the oil price does not have a fundamental basis for a substantial upward trend. In addition, under the OPEC + production reduction agreement, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease and the supply side will be medium and long In the future, there are certain risks; more importantly, there are still great risks in the epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia, and the pace of demand recovery may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. Therefore, it is difficult to make a substantial breakthrough in oil prices in the medium and long term.
Downstream: the overall trend of domestic float glass market is stable and slightly upward, with slight differences in different regions. In the Shahe area of North China, manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the willingness of manufacturers to support prices is relatively strong. The market turnover in East China is good and stable. The quotation of some manufacturers has been increased by 0.2-0.3 yuan / m2, while other manufacturers are mainly stable. The overall trend of the spot glass market in South China was general, and some manufacturers’ quotations rose slightly, about 0.3 yuan / m2, to boost market confidence. The transaction price in Central China is flexible. The market transaction prices in southwest, northwest and Northeast China are mainly stable.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 33rd week of 2020 (8.17-8.21), with coke (3.01%), dimethyl ether (2.38%) and WTI crude oil (1.93%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling month on month, and the top three products were liquefied natural gas (- 2.56%), MTBE (- 1.34%) and diesel (- 0.58%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.22%.
3、 Future forecast
The price of petroleum coke in the market of refining petroleum coke by analysts of business agency rose due to the shortage of resources, and the trading atmosphere was good. It is understood that Sinopec still has a plan for shutdown and maintenance. At that time, the production of Petroleum Coke will be small, and the transaction situation may still be in a good condition. With the rise of raw material price, the profits of carbon enterprises have shrunk. However, due to the demand from downstream, carbon enterprises still keep good shipment. Overall, it is expected that the short-term petroleum coke market will remain stable and good, with the specific demand of downstream market.