1、 Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on August 21, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6577.50 yuan / ton, which was 2.21% higher than that of 6435.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (17th), 1% on a month on month basis, and 2.63% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the PVC market rose rapidly and then ran smoothly. The trend of PVC futures was strong and volatile. It began to rise sharply at the beginning of the week, driving up the price of spot market. The mainstream prices of PVC all rose to varying degrees, with the increase range of 100-200 yuan. However, the actual transaction situation did not significantly improve. The PVC spot market entered a stable stage with the consolidation of futures in the middle and late part of the week. At present, the PVC market is gradually out of the off-season, some downstream product enterprises have slightly increased their start-up, and their inquiries have slightly increased, but they still focus on just in demand procurement. They are cautious about the rapid price rise of PVC and follow up is general. In August, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and other mainstream enterprises. Due to the influence of flood season, the output of manufacturers in some areas has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the pressure on the supply side is not great. At the same time, the price of calcium carbide at the raw material end has risen, which has strong support for PVC, improved mentality of manufacturers, actively shipped goods and better pre-sale. August is about to pass and will enter the traditional peak season. PVC will continue to fluctuate in the short term without major contradiction in the fundamentals. The market center of gravity will move up and the trend will continue to be strong.
In terms of spot goods, as of August 21, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide was around 6350-6650 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6600-6630 yuan / ton, that in Changzhou is 6570-6650 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, the mainstream is 6420-6470 yuan / ton; the price of Inner Mongolia is 6200-6250 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 type calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 6550-6650 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6630-6730 yuan / ton The center of gravity of the quoted price has moved up.
In terms of futures, v2101 contract opened at 6660 on Friday with a maximum of 6675 and a minimum of 6600, and closed at 6615, down 20% or 0.3%. The turnover was 106000, with a decrease of 38000. The position was 184000 hands, decreased by 2661 hands.
National Bureau of Statistics: from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7532.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of January June. Among them, residential investment was 5568.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%, and a growth rate of 1.5 percentage points. Real estate investment has turned positive in the first half of the year, but the newly started area, land purchase area and sales index of commercial housing are still in the declining range. Therefore, we should observe the trend of real estate in the second half of the year.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
Crude oil, on August 20, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was $42.82/barrel, down $0.29. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at $44.90/barrel, down $0.47. International oil prices fell on Thursday, mainly due to the need for OPEC + oil producers to address over 2 million barrels / day of excess supply, and an unexpected increase in the number of us initial jobless claims, indicating the slow economic recovery.
Ethylene, ethylene is on the decline in the near future. Asian ethylene market price fell, as of the 20th, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 725-735 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 665-675 USD / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 680-687 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 671-679 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fluctuated and consolidated, and the FD US Gulf quoted 389-416 US dollars / T. generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is in a downward trend, the demand of the whole ethylene market is poor, and the trading atmosphere is cold and clear.
Calcium carbide, in mid August, the price of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. As of the 21st, the price of calcium carbide was around 2730 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Future forecast calcium carbide prices will rise slightly.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts believe that the current volatility of PVC futures consolidation, PVC spot market followed the rise, but the off-season factors are still in, the actual transaction situation is not as expected, and the continued rise of motivation is insufficient. It is expected that PVC will continue to fluctuate in the short term without major contradiction in fundamentals, but will soon enter the traditional peak season. The future market will be better and there is no lack of rising expectations.
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