According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP market fluctuated strongly in the third week of August, and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 21, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.14% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, with a weekly increase of 0.84%.

Cause analysis

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the recent price fluctuation of propylene is cyclical, and the recent fluctuation price range has broken through. In the third week of August, the domestic propylene market price rose slightly, with the weekly low price of 6956 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the weekly high price of 6978 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of only 0.33%. At the beginning of August, the prices of some enterprises were at a high level in the range. On the 4th, the prices of some enterprises went down slightly, and on the 5th, they held steady. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month was started. On the 11th, the prices of some enterprises went down. On the 14th, the prices of some enterprises continued to decline. On the 17th, the prices of some low-cost enterprises began to rise. Some low-cost enterprises went up, and the prices were flat again today, At present, the market transaction is still between 6950 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory pressure is small. On the whole, there is no pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price dropped slightly, most of the profit margins in the downstream sector rebounded, and the overall market purchasing enthusiasm was good. At present, the market situation of propylene is fair, but the price is already at a high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly flat.

The upstream propylene breaks through the recent price fluctuation range and tends to be strong, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, in the third week of August, the market performance of PP (drawing) was stable, and the spot price was adjusted slightly. At present, the monthly high point was still about 8000 yuan / ton on August 5. In terms of inventory, PP production enterprises including two barrels of oil this week had a decline in inventory, while social inventory decreased by a small margin. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In addition, the recent extreme weather has affected the arrival of cargo, and the port inventory has also declined. In the middle and late August, there was a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply was not obvious. In June, the apparent consumption of PP also increased year on year, indicating that the consumption demand was acceptable. It is expected that the price of PP (wire drawing) will continue to be stronger.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 21, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7916.67 yuan / ton. 71% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. Previously reported Baolai petrochemical, Zhongke refining and chemical, Quanzhou, etc. are expected to be put into production at the end of August, and their impact on PP price is still small. The recent extreme weather has led to a decrease in the number of ships arriving at Hong Kong and a stronger futures market. Although the current situation has declined, it still has a positive effect on the spot market. At present, the supply and demand of domestic PP fiber material and drawing material are stable, and the operation situation is similar. It is expected that PP (fiber) will continue to be strong finishing in the near future.

The market weakness of PP melt blown materials continued, the price of domestic PP melt blown materials continued to fall, the domestic epidemic situation was generally stable, the demand for epidemic prevention products fell more seriously, the current market supply exceeded demand, and the price of PP melt blown materials continued to decline. Although the overseas demand is not decreasing, but with the collapse of several large export factories in China, the atmosphere of export market is affected and the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is intensified. The number of domestic mask factories increased by 1200% to 74000. The industry competition was strong and the profit was diluted seriously. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the news that Sinopec’s Yanshan Petrochemical and Yizheng Chemical fiber changed from directional supply to national customer sales also impacted the current market. At present, the epidemic prevention materials are more diversified, and the demand for meltblown materials is also scattered. The demand for PP (melt blown) has not improved, the business mentality is negative, and there are still many departures. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: August third week domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) rose steadily, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to fall back. At present, although news of new equipment put into production is bad for the supply side, there are also extreme weather hindering shipping, and news such as rising futures are good for spot prices. Downstream factory stock situation is general, merchants actively shipping. It is expected that the spot price of PP will continue to be stronger in the near future.