1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market fell slightly in the first half of the week, and began to stabilize in the second half week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3340 yuan / ton, down 2.05% month on month.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, the price of toluene fell slightly, affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene declined, and the superimposed flood led to poor logistics, inactive market transactions and weak prices. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. Due to the demand doubts brought about by the increase of new crown cases and the deepening of international relations confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil caused by the economic restart, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.
Upstream, crude oil, this week’s international oil prices fluctuated higher from Monday to Thursday, fell back on Friday to adjust. At present, the crude oil price is generally in the oscillation range. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.815/barrel, or 1.86%, to close at $42.895. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.
In terms of TDI downstream, the market rebounded slightly. For domestic goods with bills of lading, the reference for outbound offer of domestic goods is 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10400-10500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geographical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the demand for crude oil for economic restart, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the impact of poor logistics caused by the flood situation. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.