The overall polyethylene market in April showed a weak and fluctuating pattern of “rising and falling, and weak recovery at the end of the month”. According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8716 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 8425 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 3.35%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11483 yuan/ton on April 1st and 11350 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 1.16%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 1st was 10212 yuan/ton, and on April 29th it was 10082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%.

Supply side: Tighten first and then loosen, gradually releasing pressure. Early October: Partial device maintenance/load reduction, low social inventory, strong willingness of traders to raise prices, and temporary tight supply. In the second half of the year, with the concentrated resumption of early maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, coupled with an increase in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has continued to suppress prices. At the end of the month, some devices entered maintenance again, coupled with the low prices in the early stage suppressing the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, the supply pressure slightly eased, supporting a slight rebound in prices.
Demand side: Overall weak. Downstream industries such as plastic weaving, agricultural film, and packaging have weak order follow-up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand use and procurement, lacking large-scale stocking power. Although the low prices at the end of the month have stimulated some essential demand replenishment, they have not formed a sustained increase in demand, and overall it is still difficult to effectively drive prices.
Cost aspect: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, providing strong cost support for the market and driving up prices. In the second half of the year, crude oil experienced a pullback due to macroeconomic concerns and inventory data, leading to loose cost support and weak supply and demand, accelerating the decline in PE prices. At the end of the month, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the cost side showed marginal recovery, driving PE prices to recover at a low level.
Short term: There are still expectations of resuming production on the supply side, and there is no significant increase on the demand side. The fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side remains the core variable, and prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.