According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5375.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5475.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86%. The current price has dropped by 6.81% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In November, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, and it can be seen from the above chart that the potassium nitrate market has mainly risen in recent months. This month, the market has continued to fluctuate upwards, with the increase greater than the decrease. The raw material potassium chloride fluctuated and rose, with good cost support. Potassium nitrate followed the cost increase, and manufacturers shipped normally. The potassium nitrate market slightly rose. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 5200-5500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in November was fluctuating and rising. As of the end of the month. The self pickup price of 62% Russian white potassium in border trade is around 2900 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, creating a favorable market atmosphere. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market is on the rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market slightly increased this week (November 17th to November 24th), and the market price in East China was 13750 yuan/ton on November 24th, up 0.36%.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market has been operating weakly this week, with downstream buyers buying on dips. Market trading has been relatively active, but overall transactions have been limited. Recently, there have been more concentrated arrivals to ports, and ports have generally been actively shipping, resulting in a slight decline in market prices. In terms of price, Tianjin Port’s South African semi carbonates are priced at 30-30.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to last week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June. The antimony ingot market has experienced narrow fluctuations since mid August, and the market has remained stable for the time being in November.

The overall price of electrolytic manganese in the market has not changed much this week, with mainstream prices ranging from 12100 to 12300 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged from last week. There have been no substantial and significant changes in supply and demand this week, but manufacturers have increased their reluctance to sell. The atmosphere in the spot market has been weak recently, with a lack of clear guidance and limited overall trading. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the overall situation is weak. Overall, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and downstream demand has always been difficult to increase, with limited support for the upstream market. In the future, the market is somewhat wait-and-see and will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in August 2023 was about 21544.947 tons, a decrease of about 15.97% compared to the previous month (export volume in July was 25639.34 tons), an increase of about 8.7% year-on-year (export volume in August last year was 19820.931 tons). In August 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 4000.015 tons, a decrease of about 34.43% compared to the previous month (6100 tons in July), and an increase of about 300% compared to last year (about 1000.01 tons in August last year).

On November 26th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were dysprosium oxide (4.17%), dysprosium metal (3.06%), and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.04%). There are a total of 13 products that have experienced a month on month decline, with nickel (-4.28%), cobalt (-3.87%), and tin (-3.49%) being the top three products with the largest decline. The average increase and decrease this week is -0.84%.

This week, the acrylic acid market experienced narrow fluctuations and consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in the East China region is 6125.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on November 23rd, the reference price of propylene was 7063.25, an increase of 0.18% compared to November 1st (7050.75). Recently, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has shown a narrow upward trend, and the cost side pressure of the acrylic acid market is relatively high.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the week, the follow-up of downstream inquiries into the market was average, with some holders offering discounts to ship. As some devices were shut down for maintenance, the market supply of goods decreased, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream demand was mainly followed up.

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that cost pressure still exists at present, and the supply side has some support for the market. However, downstream only requires rigid procurement, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region increased from 11220.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11280.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.53%, and the weekend price increased by 21.73% year-on-year. On November 20th, the isooctanol commodity index was 83.09, an increase of 0.15 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 136.39% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7203.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7198.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.45% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP decreased from 11383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11259.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.09%, and the weekend price increased by 11.48% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

The price of ortho xylene has stopped falling and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 20th, the price of ortho xylene was 7800 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of ortho xylene on November 15th last week, which was 7800 yuan/ton. The price of mixed xylene stabilized after falling, while the cost of adjacent xylene stabilized; Downstream demand has stabilized, and the price of ortho xylene has stabilized after falling this week.

Raw material mixed with xylene stabilizes after decline

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of November 20, the price of mixed xylene was 7120 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.79% compared to the price of mixed xylene of 7250 yuan/ton on November 13 last week. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, while the cost of mixed xylene has decreased. The price of mixed xylene has stabilized after falling, and the cost of raw materials for ortho xylene has stabilized. The downward pressure on ortho xylene prices has weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stabilizes after falling

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of November 20th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7487.50 yuan/ton, which stabilized after a drop of 7525 yuan/ton from November 13th last week, with a decrease of 0.50%. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remains at 60%, and the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized after a decline, resulting in weak demand for ortho benzene.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that the price of mixed xylene has stabilized after falling this week, and the cost of adjacent xylene has decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after falling, and the market for phthalic anhydride was weak, resulting in weak downstream demand for neighboring benzene. In the future, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride have stabilized, the cost and demand of ortho benzene are weak, the profit of ortho benzene is approaching zero, and the space for ortho benzene price decline is limited. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin has remained stable with minor fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to Monday’s price.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market has experienced narrow fluctuations, with stable prices of raw materials such as glycerol. The cost side is generally supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side has decreased, and the tight spot supply situation has continued to provide some support to the market. Downstream wait-and-see for bargains is still necessary to follow up, but the demand side is still weak. The main downstream epoxy resin has been affected by the weak supply and demand since November, and the market continues to decline. There is insufficient support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, on November 16, the reference price of epoxy resin was 13433.33, Compared to November 1st (13933.33), it decreased by 3.59%.

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that in the short term, some devices may restart or meet expectations, but market supply support still exists and demand may still be weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34%. The price has increased by 6.05% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has fluctuated slightly in the past month, with a slight decline in the market this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, with poor cost support. Downstream demand has not improved, and spot transactions of styrene have been weak, causing market volatility to decline.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with weaker purchasing intentions from downstream customers and sluggish spot transactions. The pure benzene market continued to decline. The main listing has been lowered, and the Shandong Refinery’s quotation continues to decline. After the price drop, traders took advantage of bargains to purchase and deliver orders within the week, resulting in a warmer transaction.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with a range of 80-100 yuan/ton. The significant decline in crude oil has driven down pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS ordinary materials has also fallen, with a temporary decrease less than that of the upstream. Merchants mainly sell at a profit margin and negotiate with actual orders, with some low level transactions.

The EPS market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 10125.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall, the transaction is average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly on demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced slight fluctuations, and the high load in the ABS industry has continued. As of the end of last week, the average weekly operating rate was around 72%. The production of the enterprise is stable, with a slight increase in weekly total production and a significant increase in inventory positions. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

Recently, Russia and Saudi Arabia have reduced production, international oil prices have slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. In the near future, styrene supply may weaken, and under the dual positive situation, it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will be mainly higher.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8228 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 8268 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.49%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9112 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 9175 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 8637 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.14% during the period.

Starting from November, the price of polyethylene has fluctuated, lacking effective benefits, and the space for polyethylene to rise is limited. Worried about the global economic outlook, the international crude oil market has declined, and the cost side support for polyethylene is insufficient. Polyethylene prices were relatively low in October, and companies began to have a slight upward trend in early November. There is a trend of upward pricing, but there is little room for upward growth. Some companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude and offer stable prices. The demand in the agricultural film market is flat, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, with cautious procurement and insufficient follow-up on new orders.

On November 10th, the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8177 yuan and closed at 8162 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.11%.

After November, the peak season for agricultural film has ended, and the demand side’s boost is limited; Enterprise parking and maintenance have decreased compared to the previous period, and there is still pressure on the supply of polyethylene products. Fundamentals are expected to be empty, and polyethylene may be mainly weak due to fluctuations, with insufficient upward mobility.

The price of plasticizer DOP rebounded in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of DOP was 11450 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.00% compared to the price of 11225 yuan/ton on November 1st. Strong support for raw materials, weak downstream demand remains, and DOP prices fluctuated and rose in November.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the quotations from major isooctanol manufacturers, it can be seen that the price of isooctanol continued to decline last week, with major isooctanol manufacturers’ quotations plummeting. This week, the prices of isooctanol manufacturers stopped falling and rebounded. On November 8th, the prices of isooctanol surged, with some isooctanol manufacturers experiencing a surge of 600 yuan/ton. Propylene prices have rebounded and surged, while the cost of isooctanol has increased. Downstream plasticizer companies have not started production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In November, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilizes after falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remains at 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and nefa phthalic anhydride is approaching, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is favorable. The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after falling, and the cost of plasticizers increased; The plastic market has declined, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and downstream demand for plasticizers remains weak. In the future, cost support is difficult to sustain, and demand remains weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and consolidate in a weak manner.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 6th): 262.00 yuan/ton

On November 6th, the domestic sulfuric acid market price slightly increased, with a price increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to November 3rd, an increase of 1.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 35.78%. The upstream sulfur market has recently slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, but the sulfuric acid market has slightly increased.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may continue to rise slightly, with an average market price of around 270 yuan/ton.