Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices rose sharply in early and mid September. Since late September, DOP prices fluctuated steadily and plasticizer prices tended to stabilize. As of September 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7950.00 yuan/ton, up 8.41% from 7 333.33 yuan/ton on September 1, and down 15.72% from the same period last year. DOP prices tended to be stable from a sharp rise to shock, and began to decline slightly at the end of September. The downward pressure of DOP increased after the market.

II. Market Analysis

In September, DOP’s external quotation rose sharply, and DOP’s market was good. In September, the price of DOP external disc in China rose sharply, but in late September, the price of DOP external disc was 970.00 yuan/ton, which declined slightly. In Southeast Asia, the price of DOP external disc was 1200 dollars/ton on September 27. The price of DOP external disc rose sharply, and the price of plasticizer DOP external disc rose sharply. The start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises maintained, overall. The market of plasticizer DOP has weakened.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose sharply in September, the price of octanol rose slightly, the overall cost of DOP rose sharply, the pressure of DOP rose sharply, and the price of DOP rose sharply. However, with the slow growth of DOP raw materials, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell slightly in different ranges at the end of September, and the momentum of DOP post-market rise weakened, and the pressure of decline increased.

In terms of downstream demand, the recent volatility of PVC market adjusted in September, rising first and then falling. Since late September, the volatility of PVC prices has fallen. Downstream PVC market shocks fell, overall DOP market in the future negative, DOP downward pressure increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that in September, DOP prices rose sharply due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the revival of the PVC market, the rise in DOP costs, the rise in demand for DOP, the rise in DOP prices and the sharp rise in DOP prices. Since late September, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride and isooctanol has stabilized, and there has been a slight fluctuation drop, which is negative for DOP market. At the same time, the demand for downstream PVC is not good, and the price fluctuation has decreased, which has increased DOP downward pressure. Although DOP cost is still high and the space for decline is limited, the downward trend of plasticizer DOP market has now been realized. Plasticizer market downward pressure increased. DOP market is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate remained stable this week. The price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was quoted 4375.00 yuan/ton in the week, and the current price fell by 4.63% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market remains stable, the market trading atmosphere is flat, the attitude of potassium nitrate manufacturers is general, the goods are still available, the starting rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is low, so the overall stock of potassium nitrate is low, there is no sales pressure, downstream purchasing is just in need, basically no stock, potassium nitrate prices are stable. Domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks that the market of potassium nitrate is stable this week, and the end of September is approaching. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is inadequate. With the coming of the eleventh long vacation, it is still mainly a smooth transition, and the market will recover after the festival, mainly due to the demand-side-led price trend.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the price of n-butanol in domestic market rose slightly this week. As of September 20, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6 800 yuan/ton (including tax). The price in mainstream areas increased slightly by 33 yuan/ton (including tax) compared with September 16, up 0.49%. At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6 700-7 100 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic butanol market remained stable as a whole. Beginning in mid-week, it was strongly supported by the cost of butanol. The downstream demand was good, the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved, and the barycenter of the butanol market rose. At the beginning of this week, the opening rate was higher than last week, the overall market supply increased, and in some areas. Shipment prices rose slightly. Until September 20, the price of Wanhua chemical n-butanol remained stable in North China and East China this week. The ex-factory quotation in North China was 6900 yuan/ton, the ex-factory quotation in East China was 7100 yuan/ton, the price in South China was increased by 100 yuan/ton and the ex-factory quotation was 7300 yuan/ton. Shandong Luxi plant load this week is medium, inventory is still low, n-butanol quotation than last week callback 100.00 yuan/ton, quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Influenced by the sharp decrease of international crude oil production and the sharp rise of international oil price this week, propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, began at the beginning of this week. The market price of propylene in Shandong Province has been greatly increased by 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7950 yuan/ton. The market of propylene is in good condition. It is obvious that propylene market is expected to have an upward momentum in the near future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that the recent high-level consolidation of the butanol market, the mainstream market delivery is still stable, the market is changing rapidly, and is closely related to the ups and downs trend.

Price Trend

Potassium sulphate prices have remained stable this week, according to business community price monitoring. Potassium sulphate trade is not hot, demand has not been significantly positive warming up.

II. Market Analysis

The trading atmosphere of potassium sulfate is still flat, and the quotation of enterprises is supported by the cost side and intends to be strong. Mannheim Enterprise Northeast 50% of the mainstream powder factory quoted 2800 ~ 2900 yuan, 52% of the powder 2900 ~ 3000 yuan, 50% of the particle quoted 3000 ~ 3100 yuan. Resource-based potassium sulfate enterprises in Xinjiang Guotuo Luo Potassium 52% offer stable, currently the mainstream out of warehouse 2750 ~ 2800 yuan, northwest water and salt 50% powder outward mainstream inbound offer 2550 ~ 2600 yuan.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic potassium sulphate market is mainly stable in the short term.

Price Trend

From September 15 to 24, the propane market rose sharply and then fell back. On September 15, the average price of propane in Shandong was 3705 yuan/ton, on September 19 it was 3975 yuan/ton, and on September 24 it rose 7.29% and then fell. As of September 24, the average price of propane in Shandong was 3872.5 yuan/ton, which was 2.58% lower than on September 19 and 29.3% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

September is the traditional sales peak season of propane, the industry also inherently “gold, nine silver and ten” saying, into September, the industry’s expectations of future demand are generally good, early September manufacturers tentative rise, but due to the small temperature changes, propane market demand is not obvious, the increase is limited. The sharp rise of international crude oil led by the Saudi Arabian incident in the latter period opened up an upward channel for the propane market. Influenced by the sharp rise of international crude oil, the international spot price rose rapidly, which led to the wide rise of propane price, and helped boost the trend of “gold, silver and ten”. In addition, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, downstream inventory demand, active market entry, smooth shipment of manufacturers, low inventory, hot market atmosphere, prices continue to rise, Shandong market prices rise 300-500 yuan, most manufacturers prices exceed 4000 yuan.

However, with the continuous decline of international crude oil on the 18th and 19th, the cost of imported gas was reduced broadly, and the market mentality was negative, and the market gradually returned to rationality. The downstream wait-and-see mood increased, the mentality was more cautious, the shipment of manufacturers was not smooth, and the trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than the previous period. Although upstream has a mentality of protecting the market, but the international market trend is weak, the momentum of rise is insufficient, 20 began to fall, manufacturers continue to yield mainly, most prices fell below the 4000 yuan mark. At present, domestic market prices are quite high, there is still room for a short-term downward trend, but it is difficult to fall to the low level before the price rise. In October, the expected rise in CP prices has supported the market. With the arrival of the Eleventh mini-long holiday, the demand for inventory in the lower reaches of the market may change the situation of decline.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts believe that although the market demand fluctuations in September are not obvious, the international crude oil boom boosted Jinjiu, and the propane market rose more than expected. At present, the market is weak and the downstream wait-and-see mood still exists. In October, the expectation of CPI increase is still in place, which supports the market to a certain extent. Although there is a decline in the short term, there is little room for it. Later, with the cool weather and the drop of temperature, the market demand will rise. In addition, with the Eleventh mini-long holiday coming, the downstream inventory is expected before and after the festival, and the propane market is expected to usher in a new wave of rising prices in October.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average quotation of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week was 4800 yuan/ton, and the quotation was stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. produces 10,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan per ton with tax. The price of the manufacturer is firm, and the demand of downstream resins and pesticides is general.

Industry chain: Upstream methanol situation, according to the business community price monitoring, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2098 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2180 yuan/ton, up 3.91%. The downstream demand for polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

The price of raw material methanol has risen, and the market demand for polyformaldehyde is general. Polyformaldehyde analysts of business associations believe that the momentum of price rise of polyformaldehyde is weak.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5414 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 5400 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 0.26% during the week, rising by 0.37% annually, and falling by 2.99% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic alcohol market fluctuated slightly in some areas, and returned to the northeast after the festival. This week, the quotation of enterprises was stable, the enterprises executed more contracts and orders, the inventory situation of enterprises was still acceptable, and the market performance was stable. The production of enterprises in Henan was stable, the shipment situation of enterprises was improved, and the market price was rising. This week, the price of the region remained stable, the production of threol plant, the downstream ethyl acetate plant returned to normal, basically maintained just in need of purchase; Haiying and Luocheng Chao devices of molasses alcohol production enterprises in South China were normal, supported by good supply side, prices remained firm, cassava alcohol enterprise shipment mentality was positive, the price was small. In Guangdong Province, the supply of goods is stable. Lower prices are available downstream. Local enterprises maintain a small supply. Market prices are kept in order. There is a phenomenon of low prices in anhydrous areas.

Industry chain: Upstream, corn: corn prices fluctuate little. Recent market arrivals are general. Processing enterprises wait for new maize to be listed in North China. They consume more part of the inventory and the market price fluctuates little. Due to the insufficient supply of maize and the weak growth of demand, we expect that the overall price of maize will continue to decline steadily, moderately and weakly in the near future, and the market trend will be weaker in September. After the closure of the auction in October and the “gap period” before the new season of Maize in the main northern production areas will be concentrated on the market, the price of maize will be periodic. Upward space.

In terms of downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is weak this week. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic suppliers started to work steadily, and the new Taixing Jinjiang plant has entered the operational stage. The market supply is sufficient. Considering the stock pressure of the National Day in the later period, some ethyl acetate suppliers voluntarily let profits to ship and push the market transaction to go one after another. Low. In the short term, the air is still clear in the market, the downstream demand is stable, the market supply is increasing, and the situation of oversupply is more obvious. Considering the transportation and inventory of ethyl acetate during the later National Day, it is expected that the domestic market of ethyl acetate will remain weak in the near future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Corn alcohol raw materials have been listed one after another, the cost is negative, the enterprise equipment remains basically stable, orders continue to be executed, and the short-term market is expected to remain in order; cassava alcohol raw material prices are difficult to have a significant downward trend, cost pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, a small number of start-up enterprises, downstream to maintain rigidity. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term and the price of molasses alcohol will remain firm in the short term, supported by the favorable supply. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the alcohol market to be stable and small before National Day.

On September 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices were temporarily stable on the 12th, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate manufacturer shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with the impact of environmental protection control, domestic downstream civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer start limited, the price maintained low on-site. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporary.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market has risen. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1 650 yuan/ton, and the price has risen by 50 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1650 yuan per ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650-1700 yuan/ton, price trend is rising. The situation of nitric acid shipment has not changed much, the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the trend of ammonium nitrate price is temporarily stable; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream maintains a low level, and the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 333.33 yuan/ton, and the liquid ammonia is affected by the lower cost in the upstream, together with the production plants. Most of the households have increased inventory pressure compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid ammonia is low. Ammonium nitrate Market has a negative impact. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 1994 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2090 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.81%, a rise of 0.19% annually and a decrease of 33.04% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week, driven by the rise in futures prices. The trading atmosphere in the Mainland is good. Prices are pushed up by the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week. North China, Shandong and other places have followed the trend. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. Influenced by the upstream methanol market, some formaldehyde enterprises in Henan and Shandong markets raised their offer, while others stabilized temporarily. At present, construction in downstream areas is different. The market demand in the south is better than that in the north. On the whole, the demand side is general, and the support for the formaldehyde market is limited.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid Market regionally callback. After the previous period of continuous rise, the offer price of some regions is on the high side, and the market price difference is widening. With the supply of goods increasing, the offer of suppliers in Northwest China has taken the lead in declining continuously, falling to the mainstream negotiation area in North China and then holding a wait-and-see period. Although the bearish sentiment of all parties in the market is obvious, the equipment in East China has not been restored yet, and the mainstream of acetic acid market is strong. Since mid-week, Henan Shunda has fallen three days in a row, aggravating market hollowness, and East China parking facilities have been restored, some traders have high supply prices, for the latter period of sustained bearish, high acetic acid Market shocks, market stage vulnerability is obvious.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether market turnover prices fell first and then rose. At present, the overall start-up rate of domestic enterprises is about 21.78%, which is 2.41% higher than that of last week and 12.44% higher than that of last week. Overall, the domestic supply of goods is excessive as a whole, while the terminal market demand is limited, and prices continue to decline, which aggravates the mood of market buy-up and not buy-down, leading traders and end-users to prudent procurement, trading on demand procurement-based. This week, raw material methanol prices continued to rise due to the impact of peripheral and futures. This week, the average price of raw material methanol reached 2,000 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, the market price of methanol is relatively low, most of the market price is near the production line of methanol; on the methanol to olefin plant, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plant resume full-load production. This week, shipments were smooth in the main production areas of Northwest China, and most factories in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were closed down. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, with more than 1 million tons arriving in August and 90-950,000 tons estimated in September. New domestic methanol plants are being constructed in an orderly manner, including 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin, which is scheduled to be put into operation in October; Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, which is scheduled to be put into operation in September; Yingde, Jingmen, which has already produced its products in late August. Near National Day, environmental protection supervision in North China has been strengthened, and formaldehyde trade unions in North China are expected to decline in September. Market participants diverge greatly on the trend of the latter period; in the sensitive period before National Day, the delivery of methanol MA1909 is approaching, market uncertainty increases, and policy, financial and capital flows will guide the trend of methanol in a certain period of time; next week, the methanol market is expected to show regional market, and the stable trend of rise and fall will be reflected; Methanol fundamentals have not improved, and environmental protection and safety monitoring efforts have not decreased. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the trend of methanol near National Day is likely to show a weak oscillation.

Price Trend

According to business association monitoring, the price of power coal slightly declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of power coal was maintained at 582 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price of power coal was 581 yuan/ton, with the overall price falling by 0.17%. On September 5, the power coal commodity index was 70.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.02% from 103.01 points in the cycle (2011-11-15), and up 56.67% from 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

This week, the main domestic producer of power coal slipped slightly. From the basic point of view, there are two main reasons:

On the one hand, supply is steadily tightening, which supports the price of power coal. With the National Day approaching, all kinds of inspections will continue to be stringent, passive and active production reduction or shutdown of domestic power coal mines will increase, and coal supply will gradually tighten. In addition, port coal prices are relatively strong due to the support of TRADERS’shipping costs and the reduction of the number of shipments.

On the other hand, the daily consumption of power coal in downstream power plants has fallen and the price of power coal has been suppressed. According to business associations, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants fell to 650.07 million tons in early September. With the passing of high summer temperatures, the procurement rhythm of coastal power plants slowed down gradually, creating a negative impact on the power coal market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, the supply of power coal is steadily tightening, on the other hand, the daily consumption of power plants has fallen, comprehensive forecast of the future power coal market upstream and downstream game will continue, mainly price shocks.