Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 1994 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2090 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.81%, a rise of 0.19% annually and a decrease of 33.04% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week, driven by the rise in futures prices. The trading atmosphere in the Mainland is good. Prices are pushed up by the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week. North China, Shandong and other places have followed the trend. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. Influenced by the upstream methanol market, some formaldehyde enterprises in Henan and Shandong markets raised their offer, while others stabilized temporarily. At present, construction in downstream areas is different. The market demand in the south is better than that in the north. On the whole, the demand side is general, and the support for the formaldehyde market is limited.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid Market regionally callback. After the previous period of continuous rise, the offer price of some regions is on the high side, and the market price difference is widening. With the supply of goods increasing, the offer of suppliers in Northwest China has taken the lead in declining continuously, falling to the mainstream negotiation area in North China and then holding a wait-and-see period. Although the bearish sentiment of all parties in the market is obvious, the equipment in East China has not been restored yet, and the mainstream of acetic acid market is strong. Since mid-week, Henan Shunda has fallen three days in a row, aggravating market hollowness, and East China parking facilities have been restored, some traders have high supply prices, for the latter period of sustained bearish, high acetic acid Market shocks, market stage vulnerability is obvious.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether market turnover prices fell first and then rose. At present, the overall start-up rate of domestic enterprises is about 21.78%, which is 2.41% higher than that of last week and 12.44% higher than that of last week. Overall, the domestic supply of goods is excessive as a whole, while the terminal market demand is limited, and prices continue to decline, which aggravates the mood of market buy-up and not buy-down, leading traders and end-users to prudent procurement, trading on demand procurement-based. This week, raw material methanol prices continued to rise due to the impact of peripheral and futures. This week, the average price of raw material methanol reached 2,000 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, the market price of methanol is relatively low, most of the market price is near the production line of methanol; on the methanol to olefin plant, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plant resume full-load production. This week, shipments were smooth in the main production areas of Northwest China, and most factories in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were closed down. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, with more than 1 million tons arriving in August and 90-950,000 tons estimated in September. New domestic methanol plants are being constructed in an orderly manner, including 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin, which is scheduled to be put into operation in October; Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, which is scheduled to be put into operation in September; Yingde, Jingmen, which has already produced its products in late August. Near National Day, environmental protection supervision in North China has been strengthened, and formaldehyde trade unions in North China are expected to decline in September. Market participants diverge greatly on the trend of the latter period; in the sensitive period before National Day, the delivery of methanol MA1909 is approaching, market uncertainty increases, and policy, financial and capital flows will guide the trend of methanol in a certain period of time; next week, the methanol market is expected to show regional market, and the stable trend of rise and fall will be reflected; Methanol fundamentals have not improved, and environmental protection and safety monitoring efforts have not decreased. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the trend of methanol near National Day is likely to show a weak oscillation.