The price of ethylene glycol stopped falling in June
In June 2026, the price of ethylene glycol remained stable, interrupting the previous unilateral downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 12th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 4723.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% from the average price of 4760 yuan/ton on June 1st.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In June 2026, the price of paper cargo ethylene glycol at the port slightly increased. As of the 12th, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons). Today’s spot contract basis price is operating within the range of+115 to+123, with a slight decrease in the intraday basis price, ranging from 5-8 yuan/ton. As of the close, the basis price of the contract next week (before June 18th) will be+123 to+125, and the basis price of the contract in June will be+130 to+135.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4030-4150 yuan/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in June 2026:
On June 11, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 611000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 606000 tons on June 1.
Summary of the reasons for the halt in the decline of ethylene glycol prices in June 2026:
In June 2026, the price of ethylene glycol stopped falling, with the core being that after experiencing a significant premium squeeze in May, the actual transaction price of ethylene glycol spot (Huadong Oil Manufacturing) was around 4400 yuan/ton, receiving strong support. Considering the shutdown and maintenance of multiple main equipment in June, combined with the reduction in import volume in May, and the rebound in raw coal prices, the market has provided impetus for the price of ethylene glycol to stop falling and rise. The main trigger point is the financial sentiment driven by the unstable news in the Middle East, and the futures market has shown a significant upward trend.

Reasons for not being overly optimistic in the future:
1. Weak demand; Polyester off-season, poor terminal orders, low willingness to replenish inventory, and continuous negative feedback;
2. Supply side; After maintenance, the pressure of resuming production and imports gradually increased;
3. Cost side: High oil prices have loosened, and coal prices are under pressure to adjust.
1、 On the demand side: The off-season remains weak, with negative feedback remaining unbroken
Polyester production is low and there is still a risk of decline
Approximately 80% of polyester production started in June, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year; The major filament factories continue to reduce production to maintain prices, and the demand for bottle chips is weaker, leading to an increase in voluntary production cuts. Multiple institutions estimate that polyester production may decrease to 76% -77% by the end of June.
Insufficient orders for terminal textile services and weak weaving load
Only 61% of the weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have started production, mainly for small orders and fast reverse orders, without large-scale centralized replenishment. The PMI of European and American manufacturing industries continues to be below the boom bust line, and weak external demand is suppressing textile exports.
Low inventory of polyester raw materials, only for essential purchases
The MEG inventory of polyester factories is about 7.5 days (the lowest in the same period of the past three years), and replenishment is mostly a phased and passive behavior, with weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. The surge in polyester production and sales is mostly a short-term replenishment of inventory, rather than a substantial rebound in the terminal market.
The sluggish real estate market is dragging down downstream
The weak real estate market has affected the consumption of polyester related to building materials, home appliances, and indirectly suppressed MEG demand.

2、 Supply side: After maintenance, the pressure of resuming production and the gradual recovery of imports
Domestic maintenance is concentrated but not permanently suspended, with an increase in production resuming in June and July
The maintenance in June is mostly planned for short-term maintenance (10-45 days), and will be gradually restarted from late June to July to increase supply pressure. At present, the profit of coal production facilities is still acceptable, with a high operating rate of over 80% and sufficient power to resume production.
Expectations of geopolitical easing in the Middle East, with imports gradually recovering at ports
As the United States and Iran engage in negotiations, if the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the restart of Middle Eastern facilities and a significant increase in port arrivals will be achieved. The expected arrival of ethylene glycol in May is the lowest of the year, with an estimated arrival of 200000 to 250000 tons in June and 300000 to 350000 tons in July. Some Iranian facilities have been restarted, and offshore facilities have resumed production, resulting in increased pressure upon arrival at the port.
Oil production equipment operates at low load, with potential supply for the long term
Despite the loss pressure and low load operation of oil based MEG; If oil prices fall and profits improve, there is room for a rebound in load.
3、 Cost side: High oil prices loosen, coal prices face downward pressure
Risk of a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil
The US Iran negotiations have been repeated, and once the geopolitical conflict cools down, oil prices will sharply decline and cost support will weaken.
The cost of coal production is not an ‘iron bottom’
At present, the price of thermal coal is at a high level, and the upward trend caused by the events at the end of May has been offset by the supply guarantee policy. If coal mine safety inspections are relaxed and the summer electricity peak is passed, there is room for coal prices to fall, and MEG cash cost support will move downwards.