Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6182 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On September 22nd, the PVC spot market prices weakened and declined, resulting in a bearish atmosphere on the market. In terms of raw materials, the factory prices of upstream calcium carbide have weakened. In terms of futures, futures continued to decline today. Overall, there was a lack of confidence on the market, which suppressed the mentality of the PVC market. Manufacturers lowered their factory prices, while downstream product manufacturers sought bargains to restock, resulting in a slight improvement in transaction performance.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will undergo narrow consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business News, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. Last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in the four countries was 16866.67 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 17183.33 yuan/ton. This week’s price increase was 1.88%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. On September 18th, Longqi took the lead in promoting price increases, and other manufacturers followed suit one after another. According to incomplete statistics, currently 18 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices. Overall, the increase in domestic titanium dioxide prices this time is mostly between 700 to 1000 yuan/ton, while the increase in foreign trade sales prices is mostly between 100 to 150 dollars/ton.

At present, the international foreign trade order situation is good, and the domestic terminal market situation is still good. At present, some domestic manufacturers are waiting and sealing orders, while some manufacturers are implementing new order quotations. The inventory of titanium dioxide on the market is low, and manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand. The focus of the new order transaction price has shifted upwards. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 16700-18600 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton; The quotation for titanium backup by chloride method is 19600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiated separately.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has temporarily stabilized this week. At present, the operating situation of the titanium ore market is average, and there is not much inventory on site. The spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight, and the market quotation is firm and operating. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have active trading activities, but under cost pressure, they still prioritize on demand and purchase with caution. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2220-2260 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly stable and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid this week was 310 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a slight decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide has stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society titanium dioxide analysts believe that this week’s high consolidation of sulfuric acid market prices, the temporary stability of titanium concentrate prices in the Panxi region, and the cost support for titanium dioxide powder is still acceptable. The situation of foreign trade orders is good, with tight on-site inventory and an upward focus on market transactions. It is expected that in the short term, titanium dioxide powder will be stronger and will be sorted and operated, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiated separately.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 20th, the average spot market price of nickel was 16983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% from the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 16.45%. The overnight London nickel fluctuated higher, closing at $20000 per ton, up $110 or 0.55%.

The news stated that Indonesia will no longer issue new mining quotas or further increase them in 2023, which will support nickel mining costs. However, the continued loose supply of pure nickel and weak demand for secondary nickel terminals will drag down nickel prices. Downstream, some steel mills have recently reduced production through maintenance, but stainless steel production was still at a high level in September. The country continues and optimizes the policy of reducing and exempting taxes on the purchase of new energy vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have warmed up, and some nickel sulfate has been converted to electrowinning nickel. The demand for nickel sulfate is still expected to boost. The frequent occurrence of domestic economic and real estate policies has yet to be verified in terms of improving demand. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate widely.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On September 18th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 712 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 34.85% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.50%, and the weekend price decreased by 7.83% year-on-year. On September 17th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 87.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 57.40% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

The upstream blue charcoal market is temporarily stable, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100-1230 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 6366.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6280.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.35%. Weekend prices fell by 2.48% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late September, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late September, with consolidation being the main trend.

Price trend

In September, the domestic PA6 market in China was positive, with spot prices generally rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of September 15th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14775 yuan/ton, a decrease of+4.79% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has increased significantly recently. There has been a significant increase in upstream pure benzene, and the cost of caprolactam has been boosted. In addition, the market trading remained relatively active in the early stage, and under the dual benefits, caprolactam continued to rise. The overall fundamentals are improving, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term, providing strong support for the PA6 market.

On the supply side:

The production enterprises have been operating horizontally in terms of load in this cycle, with an average operating rate of around 75% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, but the inventory position continues to decline, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable. The factory price has increased and the price has been increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has basically increased slightly, but has remained stable, with an overall load position of around 65%. The actual transaction level is still acceptable, but the buyer’s acceptance of the increased price has decreased, and the circulation speed of some sources of goods has been affected. The wait-and-see atmosphere for terminal stocking has increased, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing has loosened.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market saw a significant increase in mid September. The price of caprolactam has risen strongly, and the cost support for PA6 has strengthened. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load, abundant supply, and inventory has been digested. In terms of demand, it is average, but downstream stocking enthusiasm is constrained by high prices. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be strong in the short term due to strong support from the cost side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on September 8th was 5350 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5466 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 2.18% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to an increase in cost-effectiveness. Under cost pressure, the price of chlorinated paraffin has increased. Downstream on-demand procurement, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side, and the overall market trading performance is average. As of September 14th, the environmentally friendly factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is around 6000 yuan/ton, while the national standard factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is around 5200-5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and after a significant increase, the trend began to slow down. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased this week, leading to a stronger market situation and increased market trading volume.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin believe that the recent trend in raw material prices is good, and the cost support for chlorinated paraffin is strong. However, terminal demand remains weak and market transactions are relatively low. It is expected that in the short term, the price of chlorinated paraffin will mainly be slightly adjusted and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.54%. On September 11th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 64.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly increased this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2750 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market increased slightly this week, from 7450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7590.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.88%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.89% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly increased this week, rising from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.75%. The weekend price decreased by 17.65% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, and the market atmosphere is good. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From September 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3776 yuan/ton to 3804 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75%, a month on month increase of 0.75%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%. Driven by international crude oil, the cost has significantly increased, leading to a rise in mainstream refinery prices. In addition, low price resources have decreased at the beginning of the month, resulting in an increase in high market prices and relatively firm prices. Some regions are in the stage of accelerating construction, and downstream terminal demand has been boosted, with significant price increases.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have continued to rise, boosted by expectations of supply tightening due to prolonged production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and coupled with the rise in US diesel futures, oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on September 8th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.73 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demands from different regions. The overall demand is somewhat differentiated, with some projects in the northern region being supported, while the overall demand in the southern region is relatively flat. Some areas are affected by typhoons and road construction is hindered. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of September 11th, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 3873 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3879 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3834 yuan/ton. It closed at 3858 yuan/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.39% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 189013 lots, the position was 264406 lots, and the daily increase was -10458 lots.

In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will fluctuate at high levels, with some support for asphalt costs. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly maintain stability in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8450 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 8485 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.42%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on September 4th was 9600 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 8th was 9670 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.73%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9212 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 9312 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 1.09%.

The overall increase in polyethylene prices this week is the main trend. The strong cost side oil price has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyethylene. This week, there were many temporary shutdowns of the equipment, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a slight decrease in supply; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and demand is expected to increase; The operating rates of downstream products such as agricultural film and packaging film have shown an increasing trend.

Next week, there will be a start-up of enterprise equipment, and the expectation of polyethylene supply side will gradually increase; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and the expected increase in demand has boosted market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate slightly, but the upward space is limited.