From October 9th to 16th, the domestic methanol market in East China port prices continued to decline from 4846 yuan/ton to around 3966 yuan/ton, with a significant drop of 18.16% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.83%, and a year-on-year increase of 70.68%. Recently, the downstream of the coastal methanol market has been mainly affected by losses and insufficient raw material inventory, leading to expectations of equipment storage and shutdown, which has brought negative feedback to the methanol market and resulted in a rapid decline in prices.
As of the close on October 16th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2611, opened at 3355 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3410 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3310 yuan/ton. It closed at 3366 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 51 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1350861, the position is 229182, and the daily increase is 33217.
On the cost side, the deepening of the supply-demand game in the coal market, coupled with terminal resistance to high priced coal, continues to fluctuate at high levels, providing support for methanol. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the negative feedback of downstream olefins is particularly evident; At the same time, some measures to suspend production of olefin takeaway raw materials still exist, dragging down the market’s mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and overall a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a reduction in output. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on October 15th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $649.5-650.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 162-164 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 501.5-502.5 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, downstream demand is still average, coupled with some olefin companies continuing to take out raw materials, and the overall supply in mainland China gradually becoming more relaxed. Overall, buying in the middle and lower reaches is still cautious in pursuing gains. Overall, analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market may mainly consolidate.