1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 18 was 8360 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from last Tuesday (11th), 0.48% from the beginning of the month and 20.07% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Looking back on last week, the PVC market was restrained first and then raised. The price continued to rise in the middle and late weeks of the week, breaking the situation of continuous decline for more than a month, bringing a trace of vitality to the deadlocked market. Moreover, the rise has continued to this day, rising by 1.09% in seven days. Recently, the rise of the market is mainly driven by the disk. The rebound of futures prices drives the rise of spot market prices. In addition, there are unexpected parking in some areas, and there is some support at the supply end. At the same time, there is still just need to purchase in the downstream before the Spring Festival, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly good. Some PVC enterprises said that the orders during the Spring Festival are basically saturated, and the PVC prices stop falling and rising under the support of multiple benefits. At present, the overall supply side of the market is limited, and the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, and the continuous action force of PVC is insufficient. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8000-8700 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone in Tianjin is 8350-8450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 8650-8750 yuan / ton. There is little fluctuation in the market price in various parts of China.

According to the weekly rise and fall from October 25, 2021 to January 16, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuation has been small, and the range is within 3%. In the cycle, there are few bullish and many falling, and the market is weak.

For the external price, CFR China maintains US $1330 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia maintains US $1340 / ton, and CFR India maintains US $1550 / ton.

International crude oil prices rose on January 17. On Martin Luther King’s anniversary, the U.S. futures market was closed, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at US $86.48/barrel, up US $0.42 or 0.5%.

Ethylene, on January 17, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $948-966 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On January 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1580-1591 / ton, up US $6 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1437-1446 / ton, up US $4 / ton. On January 17, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $921-931 / ton, down US $25 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $961-971 / ton, and the international crude oil price rose. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

For calcium carbide, on January 17, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4566.67, a decrease of 1.08% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide mainly fluctuated and fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials is expected to decline, and the market supply is relatively abundant. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak, and the continuous upward action force is insufficient. It is expected to be mainly adjusted slightly in the short term.