1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton on January 27, up 140 yuan / ton compared with 8320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 1.68% during the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In January, the PVC market fluctuated downward, the price rose sharply in the middle of the month, remained basically stable in the latter ten days, and the overall trend in the month was roughly in the shape of √ by the end of the year. This month, the PVC market was mainly driven by the favorable interest rate cut of the central bank, crude oil and coal. The disk surface was strong, and the equipment in some areas was shut down for maintenance. There was some support at the supply side. The PVC market broke the continuous falling market for more than a month, and the futures price continued to rise above 8800, boosting the offer of the spot market. In the first week after returning from New Year’s day, the disk was strong, PVC opened and rose slightly, superimposing the problems of Zhonggu mining equipment in Inner Mongolia, so as to strengthen the confidence of cargo holders in offering. In the second week, PVC futures rebounded strongly, driving the spot market to actively follow the rise. The enterprise’s offer rose about 100-200 yuan / ton within the week, and the market rose. In the third week, the rise did not stop, and the transaction atmosphere was good. The pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival was good. Most of them had completed their tasks and made firm offers. Near the end of the month, the Spring Festival is approaching, the transportation capacity is limited, and the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode. The demand is reduced. There is basically no market in the market, and the price is mainly sorted out.
By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4150-4450 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8100-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide delivered in Tianjin was 8600-8650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8750-8850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, Market prices all over the country have risen.
According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell during the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price has fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It is now falling and then rising in January.
| Thiourea |
region workmanship 1 / 27 (yuan / ton) 12 / 31 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 8650-8850 8300-8500 + 350/+350 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 8750-8900 8400-8650 + 350/+250 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8700 8150-8400 + 400/+300 Deliver
southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8800 8350-8500 + 250/+300 Deliver
For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.
International crude oil prices continued to rise on January 26. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.
In January, the price of ethylene in the external market fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1245.25 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1262.00 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.35%. The current price increased by 0.90% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.73% year-on-year.
On January 26, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4316.67, a decrease of 6.5% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide mainly fluctuated and fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation, the downstream PVC market weakened, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that PVC was first restrained and then raised in January, and rose strongly in the second half of the month. Near the Spring Festival holiday, transportation capacity is limited, downstream demand is reduced, there is little market trading, and the market is in a situation of price without market. It is expected that the PVC market will be stable and small in the short term, mainly consolidation.
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