1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On January 31, the price of mixed xylene was 4350 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (February 7), the price was 4530 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton or 4.14% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene mix increased by 200-450 yuan / ton. The demand for xylene is weak, but the willingness of the holder to support the price remains unchanged. As the Spring Festival approaches, the lower reaches leave the market one after another, the demand weakens and the actual transaction is limited. In terms of external market, as of February 5, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 636 US dollars / ton, up 37 US dollars / ton or 6.18% in the week compared with January 29; the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 645 US dollars / ton, up 32 US dollars / ton or 5.22% in the week compared with January 29. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 82200 tons, up 5300 tons on the previous week.

In terms of crude oil, due to bad weather in the United States, energy demand is expected to increase. In February, OPEC + cut production, global crude oil supply is expected to tighten, and the market is optimistic about the demand outlook. Brent crude oil rose nearly $60 / barrel. On January 29, Brent rose $4.64/barrel, or 8.42%; WTI rose $4.62/barrel, or 8.87%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose slightly this week, the weekend average price was 5300 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 15.87%. This week, the domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $718-720 / T, FOB Korea and US $736-738 / T, CFR China. This week, PX’s external price rose, international crude oil price rose, and domestic PX market price rose.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated and rose this week. On February 7, the price was 3995 yuan / ton, up 0.35% compared with last week and down 14.27% year on year. Domestic PTA started at 87.29%. The 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng new materials is planned to be put into operation by the end of March 2021; the 2.2 million T / a PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical will be shut down on January 6, and the restart time is to be determined.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 4700 yuan / ton. The import of o-benzene in the port area has increased, the inventory of o-benzene in the port has increased recently, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been adjusted. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. The downstream market is getting warmer and the demand is getting warmer. The turnover of o-benzene increased, and the market of o-benzene rose.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The downstream terminals are shut down one after another, the logistics is reduced, and the mixed xylene market is expected to enter a stable price consolidation period. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.