Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.56%, 4.09% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide fell slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 77.73 on October 11.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China dropped slightly this week: Ovidiang quoted 2950 yuan/ton this week, the price was stable temporarily; Shaanxi Coal Industry quoted 2800 yuan/ton this week, the price was stable temporarily; Inner Mongolia China Federation quoted 3000 yuan/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell 50 yuan/ton; Ningxia Xingping this week quoted 2950 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the price is stable temporarily.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 26.68% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC fell from 6725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6695.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.45%, down 1.69% from the same period last year. Downstream PVC market slightly declined, downstream customers on the procurement of calcium carbide in general, the overall view of this week’s slight decline in PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. The price of PVC in the downstream has slightly fallen, and the purchase enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is general. Later, the market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in mid-October, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at around 2950 yuan/ton.