Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, the broken line of pure benzene this month is higher than that at the end of the month. On August 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5200-5300 yuan/ton, and on September 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5500-5900 yuan/ton. Overall, it rose by 9.14% compared with the end of last month. On the 2nd, 11th and 18th, there was a significant increase, and prices began to fall on the 23rd.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude Oil: On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in a suspension of more than 5 million barrels/day production capacity. Saudi oil output and exports were greatly affected. International oil prices jumped by more than 10%. Pure benzene rose sharply from 16 to 18 days as international oil prices soared and commodity markets improved. This month, WTI oil prices rose by 1.64% compared with last month, while Brent oil prices rose by 5.75%.

2. Products: At the beginning of the month, due to the lower inventory of pure benzene in East China and the lower market supply, the price of pure benzene has an obvious rise. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. This month, the total spot of pure benzene is on the low side, and the port inventory keeps falling, which supports the high price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident subsided, the crude oil outer disk declined, the price gap between domestic and foreign decreased, and the high price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, near 11, downstream environmental protection inspection, parking restrictions in some factories, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

3. Downstream: At the beginning of this month, downstream styrene rose by 7.9%, which supported the price of pure benzene. The aniline Market has been rising all the way this month, with a monthly increase of more than 20%, forming a favorable support.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: In the latter part, international oil prices will reorganize the volatile range. Saudi Arabia’s resumption of crude oil production, trade war, the situation in the Middle East and the reduction of oil demand are intertwined.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: Likon: The recent blue sky defense battle has strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the recovery of pure benzene market. And near eleven pure benzene just needs to be reduced. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that pure benzene market or stalemate operation will dominate after the festival.