1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell slightly this week. As of August 20, the nickel price fell slightly by 4.09%, the spot price was 142050 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 148100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 10.86% from the beginning of the week and up 22.74% year-on-year.

Macro factors: this week, as the macroeconomic data in July showed that the downward pressure on the domestic economy increased and the domestic economic data were not optimistic, which triggered the demand for risk avoidance, the US dollar index rose sharply and suppressed the copper price. In addition, the market’s concern about the resurgence of the epidemic and future economic development has led to the continued decline of international oil prices and dragged down non-ferrous metals.

Supply: in June, the import volume of nickel ore and concentrate was 4.8383 million tons, with a month on month increase of 31% and a year-on-year increase of 40%; From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 16.4917 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 32.8%. The Philippine rainy season ended and the import volume continued to recover. Under the tight overall supply pattern of nickel mines, the FOB price of nickel mines in the Philippines is high.

Downstream: Although the output of stainless steel has declined slightly, it has high production enthusiasm under the stimulation of profits, and pays attention to the news of production restriction; The price of nickel sulfate was slightly corrected, and the demand for nickel by new energy vehicles was still boosted.

To sum up: dragged down by macro factors this week, nonferrous metal prices are under overall pressure. After the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply is slightly loose and the downstream price has been corrected. However, LME nickel inventory continues to decline, which supports the nickel price. Nickel price is expected to maintain a wide shock pattern in the short term.