This week (September 20-26), the price of domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.76% this week. As of Sunday, the price of liquid ammonia has increased by 26.92% since September. At present, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached 4700-4800 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the boost of high cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer.

On the supply side, the market supply remains tight. The units in northwest, Hubei, Hebei, Shandong and other main producing areas were shut down for maintenance or started with load reduction, the market supply continued to decline, the domestic urea output decreased significantly, and the price began to rise continuously. However, some ammonia enterprises switched to urea, which exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia also rose moderately, Especially from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and other regions continuously raised their ex factory prices, and the market was stable at the weekend.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of power coal at the beginning of the week was about 1407.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1525 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 8.35% and a year-on-year increase of 155.98%. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the recent dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines are still in the shutdown stage, and the overall supply of power coal is tight. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, and the available coal storage days of the power plant are at a low level. The power plant just needs to purchase and passively accepts the high price. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of frequent maintenance by downstream urea manufacturers and significant decline in daily average urea output, large plants in Xinjiang and Shandong have been overhauled or reduced load this week, affecting the daily output of more than 4000 tons. The shortage of supply has led to the soaring price of urea. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 9.27% this week. Although there is no fundamental improvement in downstream demand, the shortage of goods in the market leads to tight terminal procurement. The domestic compound fertilizer market is generally stable, but the “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” has affected the market mentality to a certain extent. The rise of urea price slowed down over the weekend, and the market rigidity is expected to be mild before the festival.

In terms of export, the import and export quarantine policy with high market attention has an obvious impact on the market. The change of China’s export inspection mode has an adverse impact on China’s exporters’ enthusiasm for purchasing ports, and the export increment in the later stage may be restrained.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the short-term market is still good. Although the recent resumption of work by enterprises will bring new output, it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year in the short term, and the downstream procurement is expected to rise near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, which will make the price of liquid ammonia easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply under the background of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, In particular, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, and the market is expected to maintain a high and narrow fluctuation in the near future.