I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the trend of the price of soda ash in East China fell narrowly on the 25th, with the average ex factory price of 1643.33 yuan / ton, down 4.09%. On November 25, the commodity index of light soda ash was 84.27, down 3.59 points from yesterday, 28.50% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 33.44% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: on the 25th, the price of soda ash enterprises was mostly lowered, and some of them were stable. Kunshan Jinggang Industrial Group Co., Ltd. has seen a decline of 160 yuan / ton of light soda ash, with a current offer of 1530 yuan / ton. Haohua Junhua Group Co., Ltd. has a temporary price stability compared with last week, with a factory price of 1600 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 1800 yuan / ton of heavy soda. Huai’an Bolian Trade Co., Ltd. has a temporary factory price stability, with a factory price of 1680 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 780 yuan of heavy soda ash/ Tons. According to the data monitoring of business association, the market price of soda ash enterprises in Hebei has also been reduced, with the price between 1350-1530 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply: the starting load of Dahua soda plant has been increased, while the maintenance of CNOOC soda plant is still in progress, and the double ring maintenance plan may be postponed to December. There are not many manufacturers for maintenance and production restriction in the near future. The starting load of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high. In addition, due to the weather in the northwest, the transportation is inconvenient in the snow season. In addition, the freight has been increased, which is unfavorable for the delivery of soda ash enterprises. The demand of float glass for heavy soda is reduced, the price of soda ash continues to decline in the near future, and the enthusiasm of end users and traders is not high. On the other hand, soda ash enterprises have no environmental protection policy pressure, and the inventory of soda manufacturers is still likely to rise.

Demand: in the near future, the float glass manufacturers have made considerable profits, but the number of water cooling float lines has increased, and the demand for heavy alkali of float glass has slightly decreased. The demand is sluggish, the market of daily use glass is poor, some small glass bottle manufacturers shut down, the market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the demand for soda ash is reduced, the downstream just needs to pick up, the industry procurement is stable, it is difficult to make a breakthrough.

III. future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, there are few manufacturers planning to repair and reduce in the near future, the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continues to increase, and the delivery pressure of manufacturers does not decrease. The downstream demand of soda ash is limited and the market is not optimistic. Under the influence of cost pressure, the market is oversupplied and the price is reduced. However, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still prominent, and it is difficult to improve the demand in the downstream. Some downstream users said that they planned to start preparing goods before the festival in December. It is difficult for the domestic soda ash market to improve greatly in the short term due to the low mentality of the industry. It depends on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.