I. price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data in the business club’s large list, last week (11.18-22), adipic acid in China remained weak, with little price change, but it still remained in the downturn. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7900-8100 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market was adjusted in a narrow range with little price change. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors hindering the rebound of adipic acid market, as well as the upstream raw material market did not show any good. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for two consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is also an important reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, the upstream cost has not changed much. Although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern and rebounded slightly, it has not brought much positive effect on the adipic acid market. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of pure benzene has only increased by 0.95% (as shown in the figure below) from November 1 to 22, which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid remains weak.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, manufacturers and market stocks are still both high, and dealers are under great pressure, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, the downstream procurement did not improve significantly. In November, nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. As of November 22, the decline was as high as 6% (as shown in the figure above). PA66 was close to There is still no improvement in the market in the future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the predicament.

III. future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market is relatively weak. In the later stage, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up, and we expect that the market will continue to be weak in the near future.