The price of glycol will remain stable in the short term (11.11-11.15)

I. price trend


According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on November 15 was 4767 yuan / ton, down 1.38% from last week.


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At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4515 yuan / ton, and on Friday it was 4735 yuan / ton, up 4.87% from the same period last week.


II. Analysis of influencing factors


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This week, the total operating rate in China was 57.11%, of which the operating rate of non coal to glycol unit was about 60.24%, and the operating rate of coal to glycol unit was 52.69%, slightly down. The starting load of the downstream polyester plant is about 89.49%, maintaining a high level, and the proportion of production and sales is about 55%. As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 429600 tons, down 12.33% from Monday. Although the inventory decline is obvious, the delivery situation in recent days is not good. In the later stage, glycol is expected to reach 188000 tons at the port, increasing the risk of accumulation.


III. future forecast


Glycol analysts at the business news agency believe that manufacturers have made a slight correction to the ex factory price of glycol later this week, which shows that the market expectation has increased. At the same time, the market price in East China, which has been depressed for a long time, has also increased significantly. However, the purchase intention of the downstream polyester market is not strong, and it is mainly to digest inventory, so the daily delivery of glycol is at a low level. It is expected that the number of arrivals will increase in the later period, and the production of new devices in the medium and long term will suppress the price. Combined with the above factors, the market price of glycol is expected to remain stable for some time.

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