Commodities meet short-term “bear market”

Private investor cut-loss while Institutional opportunistic go short

Over the past three weeks, the domestic commodity market has plummeted, the black plate led the trend shocking, coking coal, coke, steel, iron ore and other products in the past three trading days across the board refresh the new low of 2017. On the black products, the midline prospects exist “Mishap”, may trend differentiation.

PGA 30%

This year’s March-May plummeted in the trend, iron ore to lead the decline, the Dalian Futures Exchange iron ore main contract since mid-March highs fell to a week this week, a range of 35.6%; rebar futures The main contract since mid-March high point so far the rate of return is just 20%; coking coal from the end of March 1900 yuan / ton higher than the fall of the rate of even better, 21.4%.

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Guangzhou Daily reporter surveyed in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the two markets, found that now adhere to the “do” the retail is now running out, and the end of April, most retail still think that black products have “play”. Now part of the retail has been “flesh” out, some retail investors have begun to “short.” The Shenzhen futures brokerage platform statistics show that its investment in black products, the mainstream institutions, corporate investors positions also decreased by 30% over the same period in April, holding wait and see and opportunistic short, become the current attitude of these investors.

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Guangzhou Daily reporter learned that the recent black prices caused by the collapse of the main reasons for the following three. First, the off-season demand is not busy than in previous years. Is still in the 3 to 5 months of the traditional off-season, in addition to building materials spiral inventory digestion is still possible, plate type of digestion is not satisfactory, short-term to the stock pressure. Second, iron ore stocks are at historically high levels. As of the end of April, the main port iron ore stocks reached 131.95 million tons. Third, the technical callback pressure, the organization “short” will greater than “do more” will. 2016 years since February 2017, the black plate for 20 consecutive months soared, the majority of black varieties of the cumulative increase over 50%, profit to form a lot of institutional options.

Steel hockey has ended

Late investment and more “short” ideas

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Only from a technical point of view, the current trend of bulk commodity crash, so far did not stop, although the individual species appeared signs of bottoming, but the whole still do not know when the end is the end. Professionals advise investors to be cautious “bargain-hunting”.

Huatai futures (Guangzhou) Zhang Sheng analysis that: the possibility of differentiation of large commodity market outlook, black product plate itself will be differentiated. The prospect of declining varieties of iron ore is the most pessimistic, because iron ore is an international product, subject to the domestic supply side of the structural reform of the best influence of the smallest, the global high inventory will restrict its rebound; rebar up to 1 year and a half “Honeymoon period” to May this year is limited, has ended, the property market regulation overweight, will offset the supply side of the structural reform brought about by the promotion, tend to midline low consolidation, the proposed investors to short thinking; For coking coal, coke products, after the crash may be the first to rebound, investors may wish to bargain hunters.

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