Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business society, on October 26, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4133.33 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from Friday and 35.16% year on year.

Glycol Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply starts to increase. With the restart of early maintenance devices, the domestic ethylene glycol supply has increased.

Demand side: On October 25, the operating rate of polyester was 82.37%, a small increase compared with the previous month. The production and sales of polyester filament were 49.6% (- 0.5%).

According to the inventory data, the ethylene glycol inventory at the main port of East China on October 24 was 811000 tons, 36100 tons more than that on October 20. From October 24 to October 30, the arrival volume of East China’s main port is expected to be 208000 tons.

Import and export data:

From January to September, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5808300 tons, down 8.13% year on year; In September, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 618400 tons, up 3.38% month on month and 2.91% year on year, and the dependence on imports decreased slightly to 61%.

From January to September, the cumulative export volume of ethylene glycol was 33500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.49%; Among them, the export volume of ethylene glycol in September was 1300t, down 69.62% month on month and up 50.78% year on year.

Future market forecast

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi are flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation. The expected price fluctuation range is 3800-4150 yuan/ton. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.