Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business community, on October 21, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4158.33 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from Friday and 41.29% year on year.

Glycol Weekly Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply volume increases within a week. From the perspective of production data, the total domestic ethylene glycol production rose slightly this week, with a month on month increase of about 8000 tons and a weekly output of 262000 tons. The increase of output is mainly based on the increase of domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization ratio on a month on month basis. The capacity utilization ratio of integrated units is 64.16%, with a month on month increase of 2.04%; The capacity utilization rate of coal to ethylene glycol was 35.66%, up 0.95% month on month.

Demand side: the demand is relatively stable, moving down slightly. The utilization rate of polyester capacity is about 82%, and the output is close to 1.1 million tons, moving down slightly on a month on month basis.

From the inventory data, the inventory of the main port began to go out of stock slightly, and the current inventory is 847100 tons, down month on month.

Future market forecast

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi are flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation. The expected price fluctuation range is 3900-4150 yuan/ton. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.