1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, overall yellow phosphorus market prices rose in October. On October 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25522.67 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, it was 25960 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 1.71%.

2、 Market analysis

Overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. In the first ten days of October, the overall market turnover of yellow phosphorus was fairly good. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the cost support was awesome, and the market price was temporarily stabilized. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. In the latter half of the year, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased, and downstream demand was poor. The market pressed down on procurement, and the focus of price transactions gradually shifted downwards. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, on October 27th, the market price of 30 grade phosphate ore once again exceeded the thousand yuan mark, with a reference price of around 1024 yuan/ton. Compared to early October, the monthly increase was 5.57%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is mild, and the supply side will continue to provide some support to the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate at a high and strong level, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of coke was temporarily stable in October 2023. On October 27th, the ex factory price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2196.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as at the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the shutdown plan for the 4.3 meter coke oven in Shanxi region has begun to be implemented, affecting the operation of local coke enterprises. The regional supply of coke is tight, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined this week. In terms of demand, the recent poor performance of finished product prices has led to a slight decline in steel plant operations. Some enterprises may have maintenance plans and maintain a just needed replenishment of coke. Some enterprises with high inventory in the factory have started to control coke procurement, leading to a weaker mentality among coke companies and a weakening market mentality. Overall, the supply and demand in the coke market are weak, and the mentality of coke companies is expected to weaken. The market is expected to remain temporarily stable in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on October 1st was 7140 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 27th was 7220 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.12% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and increased, with acceptable support for raw materials, leading to an increase in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. However, downstream demand is weak, and some dealers have not made any adjustments for shipment, resulting in limited growth in phosphoric acid. With the improvement of the yellow phosphorus market, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will consolidate and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. At present, the market trading situation is average, and the market is purchasing at a low price. However, the upstream phosphate rock price has increased, and the raw materials are under pressure. The willingness of yellow phosphorus manufacturers to increase prices is also strong, and there is a game between upstream and downstream, with many businesses watching and waiting. Overall, it is expected that the price range of yellow phosphorus market will fluctuate and operate in the short term, and the actual transaction will be negotiated.