1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride first rose and then fell in September. The price of potassium chloride first increased from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3075.00 yuan/ton on September 12, an increase of 4.24%, and then fell to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.44%. On September 27th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, an increase of 1.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and a 64.86% increase from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly decreased this month. The terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton. 60% of the port’s red particles were around 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton. Border trade 62% of Russian white potassium was around 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of about 3 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate rose first and then fell this month. The price first increased from 7410.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 7610.00 yuan/ton on September 14, an increase of 2.70%, and then fell to 7550.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.79%. Overall, the market price of potassium carbonate in September increased slightly by 1.89%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.47% compared to the same period last year. This month, the factory price of potassium nitrate increased first and then decreased. The price first increased from 5450.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 5600.00 yuan/ton on September 11, an increase of 2.75%, and then dropped to 5550.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.89%. Overall, the factory price of potassium nitrate in September increased by 1.83%, and the month end price decreased by 13.62% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose first and then fell. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream manufacturers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early October, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and potassium chloride prices may fluctuate and fall in the future.