Price trend
| Thiourea |
Recently, the domestic EVA market has been operating in a weak and volatile manner, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the afternoon of October 16th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 12733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.80% compared to the previous day and 3.29% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
Since the holiday, the overall supply of ethylene in the raw material end has remained stable, and the supply of port inventory has remained stable. The cost side of petroleum brain has been strengthened due to the impact of crude oil boost, and after the holiday, some demand in Northeast Asia has been released. Currently, the ethylene market is stable without pressure;
The recent operating rate of the vinyl acetate industry has remained at a low level in the early stage, while there has been a boost from upstream crude oil in the far end. However, the trading situation of vinyl acetate is average, and the follow-up of on-site stock preparation is weak. Recently, the supply and demand game of vinyl acetate has been running, and it is expected that the market may continue to narrow down. The market for EVA raw materials is temporarily stable, with moderate support for the EVA market.
On the supply side:
Recently, the scale of domestic EVA enterprises resuming work and maintenance is relatively small, and the industry’s operating rate continues to be around 80% of the previous level. The overall high load of the enterprise continues, leading to a gradual increase in factory inventory pressure and a continuous upward trend in supply pressure. Loose factory pricing from manufacturers. The mentality of traders has weakened, following the drop in factory prices. EVA suppliers have weak support for spot goods.
In terms of demand:
The traditional EVA stocking boom in early September did not materialize, and the sluggish peak season situation did not improve after the holiday. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and there is currently insufficient consumption. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the demand side for EVA has collapsed. Recently, companies have lagged behind in tracking their purchases, resulting in low trading volume on the market. The buyer has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and a strong resistance towards high priced sources.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, the EVA market performed negatively after the holiday. Although the raw material market is temporarily stable and the support for EVA spot is strong, weak downstream demand is dragging the market. At the same time, the industry’s load continues to be high, and supply pressure is gradually rising. On the 16th, manufacturers significantly lowered their factory prices, and traders followed suit. In the future, the overall starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the inventory of raw materials in the early stage still needs to be digested. The expectation of demand improvement is not strong, and it is expected that the EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s supply and demand situation.
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