Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in China continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2850 yuan/ton, and it rose to about 2970 yuan/ton at the weekend, with an increase of 4.21% in the week.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: This week, due to the strong demand for downstream refrigerants and the short-term impact of trichloromethane supply, the domestic trichloromethane market continued to rise, the industry has fewer spot supply, low inventory. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2970 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 4000 yuan/ton; and that in Jiangxi is about 3650 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, Jinling chemical plant started normal; Dongying Jinmao overhaul; Luxi chemical plant started 60%; Jiangsu science and technology plant started normal; Jiangxi science and technology plant normal operation, etc.

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic methanol market showed a weak performance this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2180 yuan/ton, which fell by 0.27% in the weekend, 18.31% compared with the same period last year. The liquid chlorine market was stable and soft in the week, and the enterprises reported 200-400 yuan/ton more. On the downstream side, the domestic R22 refrigerant market started this week, and the overall turnover was weak. Now the company quotes 18500-19000 yuan per ton for bulk water.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 25th week (6.24-6.28) of 2019, there were 30 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were calcium carbide (7.55%), crude benzene (6.50%) and hydrochloric acid (5.26%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-7.36%), butanone (-5.93%) and ammonium sulfate (-4.42%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current spot supply of trichloromethane is tight, the overall performance of the market is strong, the downstream market just needs to be stable, the price of trichloromethane support is good, follow-up attention should be paid to Jinmao Shandong overhaul situation, the completion of enterprise overhaul will gradually fill the supply-side gap, prices will inevitably fall, anticipated in the near future market volatility adjustment of trichloromethane