On July 12, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 55.56, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 45.53% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 24.69% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).
II. Market analysis:
Domestic market: This week, due to the double advantages of the rise in the external market of pure benzene and the increase in the listing price of pure benzene in Sinopec, the hydrobenzene market has been rising positively. As of Friday, the hydrobenzene quotation in Shandong rose to 5250-5350 yuan/ton, with the market increasing by about 200-300 yuan/ton. In recent years, although the environmental production restriction has not been relaxed, coke prices have recently fallen, coking enterprises’profits are still acceptable, the start-up level is relatively stable, and the supply of crude benzene in the upstream has remained stable. Recently, the external market of pure benzene has been rising strongly. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene several times, but the price gap between the internal and external market is still large. Korea-US arbitrage is still in existence. Domestic pure benzene market continues to digest inventory, and the market has a bullish expectation for the future market. Supply side: Recently, the start-up rate of hydrobenzene enterprises has gradually increased, and Baofeng and Angang plants in Ningxia have started up one after another. The overall supply is stable.
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Industry Chain: Crude Oil: Oil prices showed a slight rebound after falling this week. Overall, Brent fell nearly 2% compared with last week, and WTI fell more than 4%. Oil prices fell early in the week on fears of a slowdown. On Wednesday, news of three consecutive weeks of decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and a nine-month extension of OPEC’s cut-off agreement boosted oil prices. Oil prices rose twice this week. After the second increase, downstream conflicting sentiment was strong and pure benzene speculation eased. Pure benzene: Pure benzene market enthusiasm is high. Monday was the beginning of the month, as the contract delivery task was completed at the end of June, the enthusiasm for market surge eased. On Tuesday, news began that South Korea exported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene to China in June, and the stock of East China Port declined, boosting the market, the market sentiment was strong. Crude Benzene: Since June, the domestic crude benzene market has continued to rise, mainly boosted by the sharp rise in the external market of pure benzene. Sinopec has raised its listing price several times, up to 5250 yuan/ton on the 12th day. In addition, the inventory of pure benzene ports has continued to decline in recent years. Market participants are still bullish on the future market of pure benzene. Market demand: In recent years, the starting rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is gradually rising, many decoration projects are started, or some enterprises have restart plans, the demand for crude benzene will increase, boosting the crude benzene market. In terms of market supply, coking enterprises have started construction more steadily in the near future, with stable supply, high initiative and stable supply.
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3. Trend forecast:
Recent positive factors have been released centrally. Most of the pure benzene market is optimistic. Inventories in East China continue to decline. Hydrobenzene enterprises have started construction one after another. It is expected that hydrobenzene still has room to rise, with an increase of about 50 yuan per ton.