Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, octanol ex-factory prices in Shandong fell this week. This week, the price quotation of the main octanol factory in Shandong fell from 7433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7150.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling 283.33 yuan/ton, or 3.81%, 16.76% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 52.57 on July 26.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

At present, the domestic octanol plant start-up rate is still acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng 80,000 tons/year octanol plant start-up normal, this week’s offer is firm; Jiangsu Huachang chemical octanol plant annual capacity 80,000 tons, no maintenance plan.

This week, the quotation of Shandong main octanol producers fell. As of Friday, the quotation of Lihua Yioctanol was 7000 yuan/ton, which was 250 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Hualu Hengsheng Sheng octanol at the weekend was 7250 yuan/ton, which was 200 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; and the quotation of Jianlan Chemical Octanol at the weekend was 72 yuan/ton. The price is 200 yuan per ton, which is down 200 yuan per ton compared with the beginning of the week.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: Propylene market rose this week. The quotation rose from 7680.77 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7888.54 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.71%, a decrease of 7.48% over the same period last year. The rising price of raw materials in the upstream market is influenced by supply and demand, which has a positive impact on octanol price.

Downstream market: DOP ex-factory prices fell significantly this week. DOP quotation fell from 7516.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.66%, 19.85% compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers’enthusiasm for octanol purchasing declined, the demand for octanol was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on the octanol market. Future traders are more likely to watch the trend of DOP.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late July, the overall trend of octanol market in Shandong Province shocked and fell. After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Although the price of propylene in the upstream has risen this week, it has fallen considerably year-on-year, and the downstream price has fallen considerably. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the product has fallen under the contradiction between supply and demand. Octanol analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the octanol market shocks down, a larger decline.