Butadiene market soared (7.8-7.12)

Butadiene market soared (7.8-7.12).

1.Price trend

Butadiene market in China rose this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 8423 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8490 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a 0.79% increase in the week and a 26.75% decrease over the same period last year.

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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Spot export of high-grade goods in Northeast China has decreased significantly in the cycle. Some downstream goods in North China just need to bring some support to the spot market. A small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China have brought a significant boost to the spot market in North China during the week. However, with the rising market, some private enterprises in Shandong and Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and Silbang in Jiangsu are actively exporting goods, which brings some supplements to the supply side. In addition, the downstream rubber market is in a downturn, the market supply and demand fundamentals are good and limited, and the high price turnover is not good. Although all export nodes of Huajin in North China have reached a high turnover level in the past week, which has boosted the offer of middlemen to keep up with the increase, the news of high-price transaction is seldom heard under the drag of low inquiry intention downstream.

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Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber dry rubber factory price stability, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 unit price 10000-10100 yuan/ton; oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 unit price 9050-9250 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu 1502E has been narrowly adjusted. The price of Qilu 1502E is near 10150 yuan/ton, which is 50 yuan/ton lower than that of last period. The price of Qilu 1712 is 9200 yuan/ton, which is 50-100 yuan/ton lower than that of last period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory price stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; domestic cis-butadiene mainstream offer price adjusted to the range of 10,300-10,800 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, there is no pressure on domestic manufacturers’inventory, Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, and the export volume of Northeast supply is shrinking. On the negative side, synthetic rubber market is weak, some manufacturers’cost pressure, load drop, Liaoyang Petrochemical and Puyang Bluestar plant have restart expectations, spot supply in the North has incremental expectations, downstream inquiries for high-priced sources are limited. The shrinkage of high-grade goods in Northeast China and the downstream just need to be boosted. The high transaction price of a small amount of goods in the market boosted the spot market in North China. In the next cycle, on the one hand, with the restart of Liaoyang Petrochemical, Puyang Blue Star plant, and the export of Jiutai goods in Inner Mongolia, there is no lack of incremental expectation of spot supply in the market, and the lower reaches of the current high-price inquiries are limited, poor turnover brings drag on the high-level market, while the performance of rubber market is low, dragged by this drag, business associations succeeded. Olefin analysts expect that with the increase of supply next week, the high-end market will not lack weakening expectations, and the market as a whole will mainly fall back, but the supplier’s inventory is low, and the supply price may be relatively strong. We suggest that we pay attention to the guidance of market turnover.

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