The monitoring showed that on March 29, Shanghai Jiaotong continued to suffer weak shocks, closing at 13360 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of about 50 yuan / ton compared with that on March 28, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12890 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.19% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 5.31%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal, Southeast Asia has stopped production, and the cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. Hainan production area is expected to start cutting in mid April. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. Tire enterprises in Shandong have stopped limiting production in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control. As the peak of the epidemic in several places has passed, the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually picked up. However, due to the complexity of the current economic situation, the problem of chip shortage has not been solved for a long time, and the automotive industry continues to be depressed. On the other hand, the increase in cost pressure caused by high oil prices leads to the rise in the demand for electric vehicles. Under this influence, the demand for natural rubber is bound to be boosted in the future; In the short term, although the epidemic situation in the main tire producing areas in Shandong has improved, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand in major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have stopped work, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire products has also increased. Inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month. The inventory elimination of rubber in Qingdao has begun. The domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced. Import and export: the data show that in January 2022, China’s tire export volume was 591700 tons, up 4.03% month on month and 9.89% year-on-year. In February, China’s tire export volume was 414600 tons, down 29.94% month on month and 5.91% year-on-year. At present, domestic tire export orders are relatively stable. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s cumulative output of synthetic rubber from January to February was 1.162 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

Future forecast: macroscopically, the impact of economic inflation and geopolitical conflict will continue, and crude oil will remain high. At present, the circulation cost of domestic raw materials has increased, the transportation is more difficult, the delivery of finished products is more difficult, and the demand is suppressed. It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will continue to be weak and volatile, and the recent focus will be on the impact of the epidemic.