1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first slightly corrected and then rose sharply this week. As of March 25, the spot nickel price was 264250 yuan / ton, up 20.06% from 220100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 115.16% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has increased by 8, fell by 3 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price has been strong.

Nickel industry chain

At about 18:00 on March 23 in Beijing, lunni hit the daily limit. After the resumption of trading, nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously, and hit the increase limit on the first trading day. Affected by this, Shanghai nickel also followed the limit. LME suspended nickel trading on March 8 after nickel prices soared more than 50 per cent to more than $100000 per ton. The exchange resumed nickel trading on March 16, but nickel has triggered a limit every trading day since then. At present, the trading price of LME nickel has dropped to a level equivalent to that of Shanghai Futures Exchange.

On March 22, the London Metal Exchange said that it had no plan to restrict the circulation of non-ferrous metals produced in Russia in the LME trading system. However, some industrial chain enterprises are still worried that purchasing non-ferrous metals made in Russia will face the risk of sanctions by western countries, resulting in a small actual purchase of Russian nickel. At present, the nickel market as a whole is in low inventory and tight supply. The Western sanctions against Russia do not involve the field of non-ferrous metals. It is not ruled out that the subsequent Russian nickel will resume normal supply and may deliver physical goods to effectively supplement the market supply. At that time, there will be strong pressure on the nickel price.

To sum up: the epidemic control interferes with transportation, resulting in continuous tension in supply, rebound in irrational price fluctuations, poor market trading activity, and further rise of nickel spot price with nickel futures price. At present, the disorderly fluctuation of LME nickel price has also caused serious problems to the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is more serious. Although the stock of goods increases with it, it also faces the risk of unrealization, which also shows that the current nickel price is difficult to be recognized by the industrial chain. The risk of overseas position squeeze remains unresolved, and the trend of nickel price is still uncertain.