According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 1st to 29th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2389 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 6.17% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.18%.

At the beginning of the month, there was a trend of recovery in the domestic methanol market. Northwest olefin factories increased their external procurement volume, coupled with the positive effects of some units still undergoing maintenance and low inventory levels in enterprises. Upstream enterprises shipped at high prices, while downstream enterprises passively followed suit.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly rose, with local supply maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders were actively chasing after the price increase due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers passively purchased at high prices.
In the middle of the month, there were regional differences in the domestic methanol market, and macro policies pushed for a stronger domestic market than ports, which had a certain boost to prices. The high import expectations of the port methanol market and the rapid accumulation of inventory expectations have a strong suppression on the market.
At the end of the month, domestic methanol facilities resumed, but the support of the mainland market was slightly insufficient, and the high price of gas in the market was not good.
As of the close on August 29th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2385 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2357 yuan/ton. It closed at 2361 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.30% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 419697 lots, the position is 821019, and the daily increase is 35186.
On the cost side, with sufficient coal supply, the rate of inventory decline has slowed down, and prices are running weakly, which may bear some downward pressure and weaken the support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market for glacial acetic acid is experiencing a partial upward trend. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. Some factories in the main production areas have a strong sentiment of destocking, maintaining low prices and weak stability to continue the market. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. The price of raw material methanol is strongly supported by high costs, and the supply of dimethyl ether has decreased. With the support of its own low supply, the trading volume has significantly improved compared to the previous period. Most downstream products are affected by the decline in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 28th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. FOB US Gulf methanol market closing price of 94-95 cents/gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 287.5-288.5 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, there will be an increase in the reverse flow of coastal cargo volume in the near future, and the resumption of maintenance projects in the domestic real estate area is relatively concentrated, with some olefin extraction efforts weakening. There is also a possibility of further weakening in the domestic real estate area, and attention should be paid to adjusting the pace of freight price increases. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate weakly.