1、 Price trend

Pure benzene rose slightly this week, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, while Sinopec continued its price last week. Last Friday, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises was 5700-5850 yuan / ton, and this Friday’s listing price of pure benzene was 5700-5900 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.88% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: compared with last week, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline this week. In addition, the domestic pure benzene spot shortage and other favorable support, the domestic pure benzene price continued to rise in the first half of the week. However, due to Sinopec’s lack of price adjustment guidance in the second half of the week, the market’s rising mentality fell and the price was stable.

2. Crude oil: crude oil prices rose better this week as the first phase of us China trade reached a text agreement, boosting the oil market atmosphere. WTI was up 2.96% and Brent was up 3.07% compared with December 13.

3. External market: Po in the United States is in short supply, and the factory has increased the starting load of the plant, so the demand for pure benzene has been boosted; in addition, Europe is close to the contract negotiation period, so the external market price of pure benzene is high.

4. Related industries: styrene rose slightly in shock this week, up 0.68%; aniline factory shipments were difficult this week, with prices down (down 3.68%), but cost pressure limited the decline.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: the current trade situation is good, forming a bottom support for the crude oil market. Crude oil is expected to continue to rise, but not much.

2. Market: the downstream products of pure benzene need to be soft and the profit is thin, or the market of pure benzene will be limited. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the start-up load change of downstream and hydrobenzene units.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the pure benzene will be shaken and consolidated next week.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price in East China was 1560 yuan / ton from the weekend, which was stable compared with the weekend last year, down 26.53% year on year. On December 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is weak and stable, the market continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is understood that the selling price of soda ash is low this week, in which the combined soda enterprise mainly adopts flexible single price negotiation considering the cost impact, and the price reduction space is slightly small due to the cost; the ammonia soda enterprise takes the initiative to flexibly reduce 30-50 yuan / ton to meet the order at the beginning of the month. Due to the contradiction of over supply in the industry and the influence of weak upstream and downstream demand, the market trading performance eased and the delivery volume was average.

In terms of supply: most soda ash enterprises have stable production, and the overall starting load remains at 90% of the annual high level; in terms of inventory, the market just needs to remain, soda ash enterprises have stable production support, and the supply pressure is small under the influence of high inventory, and the enterprises continue to reduce the price and increase the volume. Due to the poor performance of enterprise shipment, the supply continues to be dominated by excess supply.

Demand side: considering the cost factor, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to continue to reduce prices to promote the transaction, so this week, the Middle East associated soda enterprises and the downstream procurement deadlock procurement situation. At present, winter storage is considered in the downstream, and the demand will be released in the later stage or due to the impact of transportation and pressure. It is difficult for the downstream industry of light soda ash to have obvious demand increase performance under the influence of environmental protection; heavy soda ash just needs to operate stably.

III. future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the downstream demand of soda ash is limited, and the market is not optimistic. The downstream maintains rigid demand for replenishment, and the price is hard to rise. However, the order and demand are expected to increase to promote the consumption of enterprise’s supply. It is expected that the soda ash market will maintain stable operation, depending on the inventory situation and downstream market demand.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 13, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7266 yuan / ton, down 0.91% month on month and 29.90% year on year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly sorted out.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7300-73400 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market was sorted out for a short time, and the negotiation was delivered with reference to 7900-8000 yuan / ton. The upstream pure benzene was supported by firm operation, the seller’s offer was held high, the purchase response was general, and there was a wait-and-see in the market. The market of cyclohexanone in East China has been operating steadily, and the market of pure benzene has been promoted steadily. The on-site negotiations refer to 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and some of the sales are up to 7900 yuan / ton. The purchase intention tends to be near the low end, and replenishment is required.

Industry chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in February, the seller intends to buy 740 US dollars / ton CFR China, and in January, the seller intends to buy 745 US dollars / ton CFR China. Domestic pure benzene Market: East China’s pure benzene market slowly rebounded, with reference to 5850-5900 yuan / ton for negotiation, some of the selling prices were slightly higher, and the price of goods in the far month was 5700-5800 yuan / ton for negotiation. The small increase in the external price gave psychological support, and the seller’s intention was high to report to the market.

Caprolactam: the market trend of caprolactam US dollar is strong, the offer of the merchants is increased, the inquiry atmosphere of the downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the mainstream transaction negotiation reference in the market is 1200-1220 US dollars / ton. The caprolactam liquid market maintained consolidation, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market was 10800-11000 yuan / ton (6 months’ acceptance delivery), stable. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the downstream market rose slightly; the pure benzene market remained firm. On the negative side, the solvent demand is insufficient; the industry chain profit is limited. The upward trend of the upstream market has a clear positive direction to the market, with a small increase in business intention and a limited profit in the downstream market. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the market of the domestic cyclohexanone market will have a small upward space in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, and the current price was 5.43% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was in a shock consolidation, with a general trading atmosphere and a general downstream demand. It was in a stable period of consumption, with a relatively stable supply and demand, and the market was in a consolidation state. In addition, the overall downstream demand is general, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the rising power is insufficient, and the price is mainly stable. This week, the price change is not big. The domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Potassium nitrate analyst of business association thinks: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is volatile and consolidated, but the demand side purchase is general. It is expected that the demand of potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, and the market may be consolidated and operated.

I. price trend

This week, the domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) slightly adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2960 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2950 yuan / ton, with a drop of 0.38% in the week, 25.06% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the transaction atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market on Tuesday was flat. As of November 29, such devices as Yutai in Hebei, Huitong in Lankao, Henan, and Shanxi Lanhua science and Technology Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance, and no quotation was made temporarily; the DME device in Xinyuan, Yima, Henan had failed, and no quotation was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether is 2940 yuan / ton in Qinyang, Henan, 2960 yuan / ton in xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., 3130 yuan / ton in Hebei Jichun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., 3000 yuan / ton in Dezhou shengdeyuan, Shandong and 3100 yuan / ton in Shandong.

Dimethyl ether market rose first and then fell, slightly adjusted, and the operating rate of this week was lower than that of last week. Cost methanol rose slightly, while liquefied gas rose steadily, with a relatively strong trend, supporting the DME market. Methanol rose slightly at the beginning of the week, while dimethyl ether followed. However, the market terminal demand has some influence on the price of DME, and then Henan xinlianxin implemented the two-day minimum guarantee policy. The market was favorable with limited support, and the price fell later. But at present, local profits are close to costs, and manufacturers have no intention of deep decline. Some manufacturers stop to stock, the market supply decreases, and the price gradually stabilizes.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are MTBE (2.05%), WTI crude oil (1.49%) and dimethyl ether (1.32%). There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products are petroleum coke (- 3.18%), liquefied natural gas (- 1.51%) and asphalt (- 0.59%). This week’s average was 0.17%.

III. future forecast

According to DME analysts of business club, at present, the demand for DME terminal continues to be poor. Although the price has a small rise, it has limited support for the market. Liquefied gas has a small rise under the boost of CP in December, which has certain support for the market. At present, the profit is close to the cost, and the manufacturers are willing to support the market. It is expected that the future market may rise steadily in the short term.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week’s price reduction of aniline in Shandong region and Nanjing region promoted shipment. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 6680-6700 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 7000 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6500 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton, down 1.43% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

Raw materials: port stocks of pure benzene rose slightly this week, but the impact was not significant. The market of pure benzene is weak, and the weak situation continues in a week. At present, the listing price is 5250-5351 yuan / ton.

Product: at the beginning of this week, a 100000 ton aniline plant was shut down in Jinling, with a slight decrease in supply. However, the overall inventory of enterprises is on the high side, and enterprises continue to reduce prices to promote shipment.

III. future expectation

Raw materials: weak downstream demand for pure benzene will still restrict the recovery of the market. It is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one.

The downstream demand is general, which is difficult to boost the aniline Market. It is expected that aniline will continue to operate weakly and stably next week.

Commodity index: on November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.93% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.92% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on July 1, 2019, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 16566.67 yuan / ton, and on November 29, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide market was 15966.67 yuan / ton. In the five months since the second half of the year, the polyacrylamide market has stepped out of the “ladder” downward trend, with an overall decline of 3.62%.

Industry chain: upstream: since the second half of the year, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has been reduced by shocks, among which the high price appeared in late September, and the price has been reduced by steps since October, with an overall five-month reduction of about 2000-3000 yuan / ton, with a shock range of about 15%; downstream: water treatment engineering construction, the cold and hot weather has an impact on it, and the downstream procurement is also greatly affected by it. Manufacturer: the manufacturer in Henan main production area stopped production from August to September, and started work normally before and after, with occasional environmental inspection, little production impact and stable supply of goods.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. From May, October and November to now, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the production impact is small, and the market mainstream quotation is small and down.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, in November, the North has gradually entered the warm season. The environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturer has little influence, the production is basically normal, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is good. The price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, was adjusted to 8.62%, and the market price of polyacrylamide fell in a step-by-step manner this month. Affected by the cost change, the follow-up stability may be slightly reduced.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the trend of the price of soda ash in East China fell narrowly on the 25th, with the average ex factory price of 1643.33 yuan / ton, down 4.09%. On November 25, the commodity index of light soda ash was 84.27, down 3.59 points from yesterday, 28.50% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 33.44% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: on the 25th, the price of soda ash enterprises was mostly lowered, and some of them were stable. Kunshan Jinggang Industrial Group Co., Ltd. has seen a decline of 160 yuan / ton of light soda ash, with a current offer of 1530 yuan / ton. Haohua Junhua Group Co., Ltd. has a temporary price stability compared with last week, with a factory price of 1600 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 1800 yuan / ton of heavy soda. Huai’an Bolian Trade Co., Ltd. has a temporary factory price stability, with a factory price of 1680 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 780 yuan of heavy soda ash/ Tons. According to the data monitoring of business association, the market price of soda ash enterprises in Hebei has also been reduced, with the price between 1350-1530 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply: the starting load of Dahua soda plant has been increased, while the maintenance of CNOOC soda plant is still in progress, and the double ring maintenance plan may be postponed to December. There are not many manufacturers for maintenance and production restriction in the near future. The starting load of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high. In addition, due to the weather in the northwest, the transportation is inconvenient in the snow season. In addition, the freight has been increased, which is unfavorable for the delivery of soda ash enterprises. The demand of float glass for heavy soda is reduced, the price of soda ash continues to decline in the near future, and the enthusiasm of end users and traders is not high. On the other hand, soda ash enterprises have no environmental protection policy pressure, and the inventory of soda manufacturers is still likely to rise.

Demand: in the near future, the float glass manufacturers have made considerable profits, but the number of water cooling float lines has increased, and the demand for heavy alkali of float glass has slightly decreased. The demand is sluggish, the market of daily use glass is poor, some small glass bottle manufacturers shut down, the market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the demand for soda ash is reduced, the downstream just needs to pick up, the industry procurement is stable, it is difficult to make a breakthrough.

III. future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, there are few manufacturers planning to repair and reduce in the near future, the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continues to increase, and the delivery pressure of manufacturers does not decrease. The downstream demand of soda ash is limited and the market is not optimistic. Under the influence of cost pressure, the market is oversupplied and the price is reduced. However, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still prominent, and it is difficult to improve the demand in the downstream. Some downstream users said that they planned to start preparing goods before the festival in December. It is difficult for the domestic soda ash market to improve greatly in the short term due to the low mentality of the industry. It depends on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.

I. price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data in the business club’s large list, last week (11.18-22), adipic acid in China remained weak, with little price change, but it still remained in the downturn. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7900-8100 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market was adjusted in a narrow range with little price change. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors hindering the rebound of adipic acid market, as well as the upstream raw material market did not show any good. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for two consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is also an important reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, the upstream cost has not changed much. Although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern and rebounded slightly, it has not brought much positive effect on the adipic acid market. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of pure benzene has only increased by 0.95% (as shown in the figure below) from November 1 to 22, which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid remains weak.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, manufacturers and market stocks are still both high, and dealers are under great pressure, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, the downstream procurement did not improve significantly. In November, nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. As of November 22, the decline was as high as 6% (as shown in the figure above). PA66 was close to There is still no improvement in the market in the future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the predicament.

III. future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market is relatively weak. In the later stage, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up, and we expect that the market will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on November 15 was 4767 yuan / ton, down 1.38% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4515 yuan / ton, and on Friday it was 4735 yuan / ton, up 4.87% from the same period last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the total operating rate in China was 57.11%, of which the operating rate of non coal to glycol unit was about 60.24%, and the operating rate of coal to glycol unit was 52.69%, slightly down. The starting load of the downstream polyester plant is about 89.49%, maintaining a high level, and the proportion of production and sales is about 55%. As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 429600 tons, down 12.33% from Monday. Although the inventory decline is obvious, the delivery situation in recent days is not good. In the later stage, glycol is expected to reach 188000 tons at the port, increasing the risk of accumulation.

III. future forecast

Glycol analysts at the business news agency believe that manufacturers have made a slight correction to the ex factory price of glycol later this week, which shows that the market expectation has increased. At the same time, the market price in East China, which has been depressed for a long time, has also increased significantly. However, the purchase intention of the downstream polyester market is not strong, and it is mainly to digest inventory, so the daily delivery of glycol is at a low level. It is expected that the number of arrivals will increase in the later period, and the production of new devices in the medium and long term will suppress the price. Combined with the above factors, the market price of glycol is expected to remain stable for some time.