I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price in East China was 1560 yuan / ton from the weekend, which was stable compared with the weekend last year, down 26.53% year on year. On December 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is weak and stable, the market continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is understood that the selling price of soda ash is low this week, in which the combined soda enterprise mainly adopts flexible single price negotiation considering the cost impact, and the price reduction space is slightly small due to the cost; the ammonia soda enterprise takes the initiative to flexibly reduce 30-50 yuan / ton to meet the order at the beginning of the month. Due to the contradiction of over supply in the industry and the influence of weak upstream and downstream demand, the market trading performance eased and the delivery volume was average.

In terms of supply: most soda ash enterprises have stable production, and the overall starting load remains at 90% of the annual high level; in terms of inventory, the market just needs to remain, soda ash enterprises have stable production support, and the supply pressure is small under the influence of high inventory, and the enterprises continue to reduce the price and increase the volume. Due to the poor performance of enterprise shipment, the supply continues to be dominated by excess supply.

Demand side: considering the cost factor, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to continue to reduce prices to promote the transaction, so this week, the Middle East associated soda enterprises and the downstream procurement deadlock procurement situation. At present, winter storage is considered in the downstream, and the demand will be released in the later stage or due to the impact of transportation and pressure. It is difficult for the downstream industry of light soda ash to have obvious demand increase performance under the influence of environmental protection; heavy soda ash just needs to operate stably.

III. future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the downstream demand of soda ash is limited, and the market is not optimistic. The downstream maintains rigid demand for replenishment, and the price is hard to rise. However, the order and demand are expected to increase to promote the consumption of enterprise’s supply. It is expected that the soda ash market will maintain stable operation, depending on the inventory situation and downstream market demand.