According to the data of business agency, the spot price of precious metal gold and silver rose on May 8, with daily growth of 0.97% for gold and 2.71% for silver.

Precious metals in domestic futures market outperformed in the day

Domestic commodity futures were mixed, with precious metals showing signs of rising, with Bank of Shanghai up more than 3% and gold of Shanghai up more than 1%.

Influence factors of recent information

1. On Friday night, Beijing time, investors will welcome the US April non farm employment report. The worst non farm report in American history. Wait and see the data message. It is expected that the rate will consolidate the market’s bullish trend.

2. After the realization of non-agricultural expectation, wait and see the game between resumption of production and epidemic situation. The current trend is generally more, but gold prices are high, beware of unexpected selling risks.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 585 yuan / ton on April 26, and 585 yuan / ton on April 30, with stable price. On April 30, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 48.95, unchanged from yesterday, 53.94% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 33.56% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic ammonium sulfate Market is stable this week. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 490-680 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 480-680 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 460-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-680 yuan, that in North China is 470-670 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-670 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market situation of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is stable this week, and the market is weak. Due to the poor raw material market, the delivery and investment situation of compound fertilizer enterprises is not ideal. The demand for ammonium sulfate is reduced, and more and more goods are needed.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that at present, the demand for coking grade ammonium sulphate is declining, and the downstream enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude and pick up the goods sporadically. The domestic ammonium sulfate Market is stable, the supply is reduced, and the domestic products are mainly sold. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will keep stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of April 24, the price of pet water bottle manufacturer is 5250.00 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: in the near future, cost support is weak, polyester PET factory mainly provides preferential shipment, but the downstream has insufficient confidence in the future market, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, and the polyester bottle Market in East China is weak. Now, the offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream negotiation is around 5200-5350 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the PTA Market of polyester raw materials has declined, the cost support has weakened, the bottle chip manufacturers have lowered their offer by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened.

Industry: on April 23, the rubber and plastic index was 550, down 2 points from yesterday, 48.11% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 4.17% from 528, the lowest point on April 06, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that pet market or weak finishing operation in the short term.

Aluminum market trend

On April 24, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 12476.67 yuan / ton, and this week, the spot aluminum price fluctuated around 12200-12550 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 24, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12476.67 yuan / ton, up 8.24% compared with 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), and 12160 yuan / ton compared with 12160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (April 19), up 2.60%.

Bottom hit rebound aluminum price rose in April

After the year, the price of aluminum plummeted, once falling below the average cost price of the industry. In late March, the number of domestic centralized production reduction and maintenance enterprises began to increase, and some manufacturers avoided large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance. In April, the price of electrolytic aluminum began to rebound, on the one hand, some domestic new production capacity was willing to reduce, and the time was slightly delayed. On the other hand, the impact of foreign epidemic was large, and some foreign aluminum enterprises Production reduction is expected to strengthen.

Aluminum imports hit a six-year high in March after aluminum prices plummeted

According to customs data, the import volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March was 121025 tons, compared with 3542 tons in March 2019. In March, China’s aluminum imports more than tripled from the same period last year, reaching the highest level in more than six years, while the import of raw materials bauxite decreased.

It is reported that in March, when the price of aluminum plummeted, the import volume of aluminum in that month was the highest level since China imported 125180 tons in December 2013. China imported 302580 tons of aluminum in the first quarter, 2.5 times that of the same period last year.

Overseas demand weak product backflow?

China is the world’s largest aluminum producer and exporter. According to the import and export data in March, the domestic aluminum price fell violently in March. Due to the weak overseas demand, there is a certain connection between the overseas production capacity dumping against the market to the domestic consumption recovery area. In March, the domestic aluminum price was greatly affected by the international market.

Future forecast

From the perspective of historical price trend, the price is not high at present. Although the price of raw materials in the industrial chain moves down synchronously, the cost support is still strong. Domestic demand is expected to warm in Quarter 2, and the later period is mainly for maintaining stability and strong operation. It is expected that this month will revolve around the 12500 line shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 17150 yuan / ton. The price rose within the week by 0.88%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price increased this week. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises have not started to improve much, the enterprises mainly issue early orders, the downstream stock before the festival has increased, the on-site spot supply is tight, and the enterprise quotation is up. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17200 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 17000-17300 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 17000-17300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream, the overall stable operation of phosphorus ore market is the main. In Guizhou Province, 30% phosphate rock car plate is priced at 330-370 yuan / ton; 28% grade phosphate rock goods factory is priced at 320-340 yuan / ton. Yunnan phosphating 29% phosphate rock factory quotation reference in 320 yuan / ton. The price of Yichang ship plate for 28% phosphate ore in Hubei Province is about 410 yuan / ton. The quotation of 26% quality phosphate ore raw ore yard is about 270 yuan / ton. Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price in 1780 yuan / ton. Downstream, the price of phosphoric acid market continued to rise; the price of phosphate market was general, and the wait-and-see mood of enterprises was strong.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business, social and chemical branch, the yellow phosphorus market price was raised this week, the spot supply of yellow phosphorus in the whole site was tight, and the downstream stock was increased. Compared with last week, the yellow phosphorus price increased significantly, but the actual volume of transactions was not much, and it is expected that the yellow phosphorus price will still be high in the short term.

Market trend: last week, the domestic phenol market experienced a rational callback after a big rise. As of the end of last week, the closing price in East China was 5700 yuan / ton, in Shandong and South China was 6000 yuan / ton, and in surrounding areas of Yanshan was 6200 yuan / ton. Since April 13, phenol has been driven by the strong cost side, the supplier’s mentality has improved, and the price has been raised actively. Most of the production enterprises have increased the opening price, but the terminal demand is not good. After the high price stays for a short time, the price has declined. Under the high price resistance of the downstream factories, the buying interest slows down, and the East China market takes the lead in weakening. During this period, there are many low profit making opportunities, such as low center of gravity, and insufficient trading and investment follow-up 。

In terms of crude oil, there are concerns about oversupply and shortage of inventory capacity. WTI futures settlement price in recent months fell to the lowest point since January 2002 and fell to the lowest point since November 2001. On Friday (April 17), New York Mercantile futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $18.27 per barrel, down $1.60 or 8.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 17.31-20.22 Dollars.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong fell slightly this week, with the quotation dropping from 313.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 285.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 9.04%, 24,50% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 44.36 on April 17.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province fell slightly, the inventory of manufacturers was small, and the downstream demand was general. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 320 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 210 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 200 yuan / ton, 250 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

In recent years, the domestic sulfur and diammonium market has been highly consolidated, which has brought certain benefits to sulfuric acid, but the downstream monoammonium market has gradually declined, which has a negative impact on sulfuric acid. This week, the sulfuric acid plant operated smoothly, the enterprise started normal operation in a short period, and the supply was slightly tight.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province was mainly fluctuating. The sulfur price in the upstream is high and consolidated, showing signs of decline. The demand in the downstream is general, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, sulfuric acid market may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP has risen sharply in the near future, and DOP market has recovered. As of April 17, the price of DOP in East China was 6400.00 yuan / ton, up 10.98% from 5766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 21.95% from the same period last year.

2、 Industrial chain Market

It can be seen from the trend chart of DOP raw materials that since April, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol of DOP raw materials have bottomed out and rebounded, the prices of DOP raw materials have risen sharply, the prices of DOP raw materials have risen sharply, the cost of DOP has risen sharply, the pressure of DOP rising has increased, and the DOP market is bullish

With the gradual recovery of domestic production, the PVC market recovered in April, the downstream market recovered, and the demand for plasticizer DOP rose, which was good for DOP market. From the trend chart, we can see that PVC market has recovered, but the increase is relatively small, which is good for DOP. Overall PVC industry demand for DOP is good but good is limited, good for DOP market.

3、 Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at DOP, a business agency, believes that since April, domestic production has gradually recovered, enterprises have started construction gradually increased, and domestic demand has picked up. DOP raw material prices bottomed out and rebounded, the downstream PVC market recovered, the demand rose, which was good for DOP market, and DOP rose strongly. In the future, the growth of domestic demand is not significant, and the sharp rise of raw material prices has retaliatory rebound factors, which can not reflect the actual supply and demand situation. The demand for PVC is limited and the growth rate of PVC slows down recently, which is good for DOP market. Generally speaking, the future DOP market is still good, but the early DOP price growth is too fast, the future market is limited, and the future DOP market is mainly strong and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the price of aniline decreased this week. On Friday (April 10), the price in Shandong Province was 5000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5100 yuan / ton, down 5.63% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly. The listed prices of various factories were raised continuously, and the increase of refining prices was more significant. At the end of this week, the price of pure benzene was 2850-3800 yuan / ton (the average price was 3240 yuan / ton), 32.4% higher than last week. The port inventory of pure benzene continued to accumulate this week, with a decrease compared with last week. Last week, it was reported that OPEC + is expected to jointly reduce production again, and most market participants are waiting for further guidance of oil price; this week, the sharp release of crude oil and external offer is good, which stimulates the market purchase of pure benzene obviously, the increase of on-site inquiry, and the market speculation is high.

The price of nitric acid fell in the week, and the production price in East China at the weekend was 1550 yuan / ton, down 3.12% from last week.

Product: the downstream demand of aniline is generally followed up, and the enterprise has certain shipping pressure. In order to stimulate shipping, the price is lowered, and the overall profit level is down.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: after a round of bottoming this week, it will rise again. Downstream and traders have certain inventory, and short-term demand may fall back to a certain extent. It is expected that pure benzene will continue to rise and slow down next week.

The rebound of raw material pure benzene brings good results. It is expected that aniline will run stronger next week.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has risen sharply. As of April 14, the price of phthalic anhydride from the pyrophthalic process was 4925 yuan / ton, which rose 11.3% in April, down 25.94% year on year. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply.

Influenced by the sharp drop of crude oil price, the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen sharply, and the market price has reached a new low. However, since April, the trend of crude oil price has fluctuated and increased, and some prices of downstream petrochemical products have rebounded and increased. The market price of phthalic anhydride is no exception. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is better than before, the delivery market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is better, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. By the end of 14 days, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China had risen, but the high-end transactions in the market had been blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4700-5400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4300-4600 yuan / ton. The main flow of quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4700-5100 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride in the market was still there, the market was improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply.

In terms of the industrial chain, the market prices of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material o-benzene and downstream DOP have increased to varying degrees. The trend chart of monitoring o-benzene and DOP prices by the business agency is as follows:

From the above trend chart, it can be seen that the prices of o-benzene and DOP have increased to different degrees. The price of o-benzene has declined a lot since March, but the price of o-benzene has increased significantly recently. The price of o-benzene in the upstream has increased by 400 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton. The import of o-benzene in the port area is general, there are few transactions in the market, the price of o-benzene has increased significantly, the upstream raw materials are good support, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is large The price has gone up. The price of downstream DOP market has increased significantly, DOP enterprises operate at low load, and DOP manufacturers have more inventory. The price of DOP rose, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to operate at a low level, and the enthusiasm of customers’ procurement picked up. The price of plasticizer is rising too fast. Influenced by the positive support of upstream and downstream, the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising sharply.

On the whole, the short-term interest and support of crude oil price is limited, and the price is mainly fluctuating, but the demand for plasticizer has improved. In addition, the early price is at a new low in history, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has recently bottomed out and rebounded. Analysts from the business community believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride may continue to rise in the short term.