At the beginning of the week, the price of refined oil was driven up by the good result of OPEC + agreement. At the end of the week, the oil market was worried that the demand of crude oil market and the record high inventory in the United States were negative, and the price of domestic gasoline and diesel fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic gasoline price this week (the week of June 12) is 5017.50 yuan / ton, 0.16% lower than that of last week. The domestic diesel price is 4967.17 yuan / ton, 0.61% lower than last week’s diesel price.

On June 7, at the OPEC + ministerial video conference, OPEC agreed to extend its measures to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day for one month until the end of July. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices in the United States topped $40 / barrel and $43 / barrel respectively. In the middle of the week, there is a great deal of worry about the second attack on crude oil. At the same time, as of the week of June 5, the crude oil inventory in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.7 million barrels to a record high of 538 million barrels, and the international oil price dropped. As of June 12, 15, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was around 35 US dollars per barrel, with a weekly drop of 10%.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline consumption is strong in summer, and there is a certain demand for replenishment at the terminal. In terms of diesel, the wheat harvest in the north is coming to an end, the rainfall in the south is more, the benefits at the demand end are still relatively limited, and the operation of stock up is reduced.

At present, the demand for refined oil is not good, the refinery inventory is increased, and the unit operation rate is reduced. As of June 10, the average operating load of the primary atmospheric and vacuum unit in Shandong Dilian was 75.29%, down 1.13 percentage points compared with last week.

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, thinks: in the short term, the demand of oil market is still subject to the epidemic. The implementation of production reduction in some OPEC countries, such as Iraq and Nigeria, remains to be discussed. The international oil price faces downward pressure. The demand for domestic refined oil weakens and the inventory of refineries increases. It is expected that the price of domestic refined oil will be reduced by 50-150 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Price trend

 
The ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1653.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%, down 14.92% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 76.90 on June 5.

2、 Market analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the main factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, at present, North China and central China have entered the busy season of wheat harvest and agriculture, with a slight support for agricultural demand and a high enthusiasm for goods preparation; in terms of industrial demand, the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious, with more on-demand procurement, on-demand use, and moderate follow-up. Supply side: in recent years, the number of domestic manufacturers reducing production and overhauling has increased, and the spot supply is slightly lower than that in the earlier stage, which is good for the market. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the urea upstream products in this week overall look slightly higher: the price of natural gas is slightly higher, with the quotation rising 0.40% from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2480.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 30.01% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is slightly higher this week, with the quotation rising 1.65% from 3033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.65% compared with the same period last year , down 9.05% on a year-on-year basis. On the whole, urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand has risen slightly, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

The domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4140 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 3801 yuan / ton, down 8.19% in the week. The price fell 2.29% month on month and 56.09% year on year.

This week, the domestic butadiene market was dominated by weak finishing. Due to the demand gap in the downstream of North China caused by the maintenance status of Sinopec’s equipment, it was heard that part of the procurement of northern spot resources, and the improvement of northeast supplier transactions at the beginning of the week boosted the market slightly. However, in the near future, Iranian ships continue to arrive at the port. In addition, Nanjing Chengzhi and shenhuaning coal plant are expected to restart, so the market supply is difficult to support. At the same time, combined with Sinopec’s supply price reduction, the butadiene market atmosphere quickly weakens. Although the external price temporarily stabilized to support some merchants in East China who were reluctant to sell at a low price, the transaction of goods from Northeast China was not smooth, which aggravated the downstream cautious attitude, and the market delivery was cold.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 500 yuan / ton, and 4000 yuan / ton has been implemented since June 1; Liaotong chemical has been priced for export, with a turnover of about 700 tons, with a base price of 3610 yuan / ton, no transaction; Nanjing Chengzhi’s 100000 ton / year butadiene oxidation and dehydrogenation unit was restarted on June 1, and then slowly recovered; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene unit has been in stable operation, with a listing price of 3680 yuan /T, down 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the 70000 ton / year butadiene plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operated stably, and the listing price was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 3650 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: this week, the mainstream factory prices of domestic milk polymerized SBR sales companies have been falling, with the mainstream drop of 200 yuan / ton. The main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 dropped to 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of mainstream domestic sales companies fell; the factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of mainstream domestic companies fell to 7300-7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price fell to 200 yuan / ton.

Recently, the performance of the external market is stagnant, and some domestic businesses are reluctant to sell at a low price due to the impact of the holding cost. However, with the gradual end of the maintenance of some devices, it is difficult to improve the market supply and the weak market situation is difficult to change. But at the same time, the main downstream starts remain at a high level temporarily, and there is a bottom support in the face of demand. Under the supply and demand game, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the market will mainly be consolidated in small areas. It is suggested to pay attention to the internal and external transaction guidance.

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the market of last month and continued to fluctuate downward. According to the monitoring of the business association, since May, for example, in Shandong Province, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped by 5%. The continuous downward trend of the price of liquid ammonia is mainly due to the result of the game between high inventory and low demand. Under the pressure of the manufacturers, the factory price has been lowered repeatedly, and the market offers have been lower. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 2500-2700 yuan / ton near the end of the month.

Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, showed a significant decline. On the one hand, when the market enters may, under the background of weak demand, the high start-up rate has increased the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory. According to statistics, the start-up rate of liquid ammonia manufacturers in May is still around 80%. Due to the influence of spring ploughing season in the early stage, the demand for liquid ammonia in China has increased sharply, and the market delivery situation is naturally smooth. Compared with other chemical products, liquid ammonia has stepped out of an independent upward market. However, with the end of the peak season, the market returns to calm, and the downstream procurement shrinks, leading to the gradual accumulation of liquid ammonia in the manufacturers. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions has been too high. Therefore, it is inevitable for the enterprises to reduce the price and inventory, and there are also enterprises to switch to urea to reduce the inventory pressure.

In May, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia also declined significantly, and it is in the off-season of fertilizer at present. Specifically, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week is generally below 50%. Since April, the operating rate has dropped again and again, which is basically the same as last year. As a rule, the domestic demand of phosphate fertilizer market ended in April and may, enterprises rely more on the boost of export, and the demand for liquid ammonia is still relatively stable. But this year, affected by the overseas epidemic, the export orders have shrunk, and the inventory of enterprises has been under pressure, and the phosphate fertilizer enterprises have changed to produce compound fertilizer, further weakening the demand for liquid ammonia. In May, the downstream monoammonium phosphate (- 4.03%) and diammonium phosphate (- 1.29%) all decreased in varying degrees (as shown in the figure above).

In the future, the business community believes that the current supply pressure is large, and the peak season has passed, the demand is low, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to the market entering a relatively empty window period. However, with the limited production of the enterprise, the inventory will continue to be destocked, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease. It is expected that the price will still be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, with the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the liquid ammonia market will return to temperature.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of dry process aluminum fluoride remained stable this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 8833 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 8833 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week.

Data show that the operating rate of Chinese aluminum fluoride producers in April was 57.62%, down 2.11% month on month. In April, the supply of aluminum fluoride from manufacturers fell steadily. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum fluoride in May will be the same as that in April, and the supply of aluminum fluoride from manufacturers will be stable. Downstream domestic aluminum consumption has entered a stable period of demand, and there is no significant change. Downstream manufacturers’ demand for aluminum fluoride is stable. This week, the upstream fluorite price was running at a low level, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was stable, with a slight impact on the price of aluminum fluoride.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upper reaches have fallen to a low level, the consumption of aluminum in the lower reaches is stable to be increased, and the domestic aluminum fluoride manufacturers are also stable to be increased.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal (port) is around 543 yuan / ton, up 3.77% per day. On May 24, the power coal commodity index was 63.04, which was the same as yesterday, 38.80% lower than 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and 41.03% higher than 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The recent performance of power coal price is strong. On the whole, in the context of production reduction, overhaul of Daqin line, sharp drop in port inventory, and increasingly strict import restrictions, daily coal consumption of coastal power plants soared, and power plant inventory. Under the boost of high daily consumption, the power plant continued to maintain de stocking in the near future. From the downstream power plant to May 22, the daily coal consumption of six power plants was 675400 tons / day, with a weekly to environmental ratio of 15500 tons / day. As of May 22, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 3.89 million tons, with a decrease of 475000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio; as of May 22, the total inventory of six major power plants was 1416.00 tons, with a decrease of 5555000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio. In the near future, the market purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly, driven by the fast speed of going to the warehouse, the near peak summer replenishment window and the “buy up don’t buy down”. In addition, import restrictions are becoming more stringent. From January to April, the coal import volume is close to 130 million tons. If calculated according to the rumored import quota of 250 million tons in the market at the beginning of the year, the remaining import quota is less than 50%, part of the port import quota has been exhausted, and the import restrictions are stricter.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analyst of business agency: the main data of industrial production above Designated Size from January to April 2020 from the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the national raw coal output was 322.12 million tons, an increase of 6.0% year on year. From January to April, the national raw coal output was 1152.44 million tons, up 1.3% year on year. In April, the output of raw coal was 322 million tons. Although the month on month ratio dropped, the year-on-year growth was still 6%. After structural adjustment on the supply side, with the release of high-quality production capacity, the domestic coal supply capacity steadily increased. Generally speaking, the price of power coal will keep rising in the short term, but in the long term, the price of power coal will return to rationality.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices rose this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11250 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 11666.67 yuan / ton. The price of isopropanol rose by 4.87% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

Product: isopropanol market is up this week. Since May, the price of isopropanol has experienced a short decline, and this week, the price of isopropanol continues to rise. Up to now, Shandong isopropanol negotiation range is about 11500-12000 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol negotiation range is 11500-12300 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12000-12100 yuan / ton. As far as the current international situation is concerned, the market demand for disinfectant will not decrease in the short term, and the export of isopropanol in China will continue for some time. Isopropanol factory many sealed offers do not report, mainly foreign trade.

Industry chain: in the upstream acetone market, the acetone market in East China has remained stable, with offers mostly of 7900-8050 yuan / ton; in Shandong, with offers mostly of 8350-8400 yuan / ton; in the surrounding areas of Yanshan, with tight supply, the offers are still firm, with offers mostly of 8450-8500 yuan / ton; in South China, with offers mostly of 7900-8000 yuan / ton. The arrival of the port can supplement the market supply, but there is no pressure on the overall supply, and high-level cargo holders continue to actively ship. This week’s propylene market mainly rose, and the current propylene market quotation in Shandong Province is between 6950-7050 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society, domestic isopropanol prices have kept rising supported by foreign trade. In terms of the factory, there are many unsolicited offers, many domestic trade inquiries, very cautious in taking goods, mainly for foreign trade and export. The downstream acetone price is firm, the propylene market is rising, and the high-level operation is dominant. It is expected that isopropanol prices will be mainly high in the short term, and follow-up attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream carbide manufacturers is from the beginning of this week two thousand three hundred and fifty-three point three three Yuan / ton up to weekend two thousand four hundred and twenty-six point six seven Yuan / ton, up 3.12% , up from the same period last year 15.05% 。 On the whole, calcium carbide market rose this week. On May 15, the calcium carbide commodity index was sixty-three point five eight 。

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week slightly increased: the quotation of oveganeng for calcium carbide this weekend was 2500 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shaanxi coal industry for calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Inner Mongolia Zhonglian for calcium carbide this week was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Xingping in Ningxia this weekend for calcium carbide It is 2450 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

At the end of this week, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2500 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 230 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan carbon fell this week. Overall, the drop was about 20 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of small materials is 500 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 520 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 600 yuan / ton. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC quotation from the beginning of the week five thousand seven hundred and five Yuan / ton up to weekend five thousand seven hundred and eighty-two point five zero Yuan / ton, up 1.36%% , down from the same period last year 18.23% 。 PVC price rose this week, the market began to rise, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm for calcium carbide was also high. Overall, PVC market this week had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough. However, PVC market in the downstream is rising, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise slightly in late May.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is two thousand one hundred and eighty Yuan / ton, down from the same period last year 7.23% 。 On the whole, the potassium chloride market is stable this week. On May 15, the potassium chloride commodity index was sixty-nine point two one 。

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late May. The market of potassium chloride is faced with three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there is a total of one rising commodity, three falling commodities and one rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were chloroform (17.86%); the main commodities falling were fluorite (- 6.83%), hydrofluoric acid (- 6.00%), cryolite (- 2.94%). This week, fluorine chemical products declined to different degrees. The specific product analysis is as follows:

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite continues to decline. According to statistics, as of May 9, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton, and the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2500-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2500-28 yuan / ton The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2500-2900 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has continued to decline. First, with the gradual warming of the temperature, domestic fluorite enterprises have started to work gradually, the operating rate of fluorite has increased, and the domestic mines and flotation units have started to work more, which has increased the spot supply of fluorite in the field, sufficient supply of goods in the field, and the price of fluorite in China has fallen. The manufacturers of fluorite in the North started construction step by step, the supply of fluorite in China increased, and the price trend of fluorite in the site declined. Secondly, in the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the downstream are weak, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of fluorite in China has dropped. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry has declined, and it is expected that fluorite prices will continue to decline in the later period.

The average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9080 yuan / ton as of the 9th day. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 7800-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 7800-9500 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 7600-9000 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is sufficient, Market prices continued to fall.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is sufficient at present, but the downstream market is not good, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is weak. In the near future, due to the price drop in the downstream market, and the price of fluorite in the upstream, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. In the near future, most of the manufacturers report that the loss of hydrofluoric acid is serious, Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price continued to fall due to negative influence. The demand for downstream refrigerants is not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid declines greatly. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower in the later stage.

In the near future, the price of refrigerant products keeps falling. As of the 9th, the price of domestic R22 products is 14833.33 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21666.67 yuan / ton. In the near future, the sales of the automobile industry is in a downturn, and the market trend of the downstream refrigerant of the terminal is poor. The demand for refrigerant keeps falling, and foreign special events are serious. The export of refrigerant terminals is not smooth, and they are mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry has started construction Low level, weak after-sales demand for maintenance, overall, domestic and foreign demand are less than expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price pressure is reduced due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 14000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products continues to decline.

The product price of fluorine chemical industry keeps falling, the downstream demand of terminal is not getting better, the export market is not good, and the domestic market starts to maintain a low level. It is expected that the sales of fluorine chemical industry in the later stage will still be low, and the market will still be slightly lower.