1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market generally rose. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5212 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend was 5237 yuan / ton, up 0.48% in the week. The price fell 2.56% month on month and 2.29% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market generally rose. In Northeast China, the raw materials performance is strong, the cost is on the rise, the mentality of large factories is improving, and the quotation is up at the beginning of the week; in East China, affected by transportation, the supply of goods from Northeast China is not fast, the periodical supply in the region is tense, the spirits of liquor enterprises’ low price and reluctant to sell are getting stronger, and the negotiation is getting higher; in Central China, the stock of liquor enterprises is temporarily pressureless, and the quotation remains high, but the rising trend of raw materials is basically stopped, and some purchase prices have been opened Since the beginning of the decline, liquor companies have been cautious, some shipments are not fast, and prices have declined slightly; the general level of goods in South China is OK, water free demand is weak, and the range moves down.

Industry chain: corn: the price of superior grade corn ethanol in Shandong Province is mostly around 5400 yuan / ton, including tax. The equipment of alcohol enterprises maintains low load operation. In terms of raw corn, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level in North China has been reduced to a low level, with more than 80% of the overall grain sales progress, including nearly 90% in Henan, nearly 80% in Shandong and more than 80% in Hebei. The high price prompted traders to actively ship, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises remained at a high level. The corn purchase price of some enterprises was immediately lowered, which led to the hoarding traders’ reluctance to sell. The arrival volume of factories began to decline, and the price was mainly adjusted at a high level and a narrow range.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate rose this week. This week, the market rebounded. Affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price, the supplier thought that the price of raw materials would rise. Taking this opportunity to jointly speculate, the offer price in North China and central China continued to rise. The price in South China rose sharply due to the lack of shipping goods and the shortage of spot goods in the market.

3、 Future forecast

The rising trend of raw corn is basically over, and the cost of corn alcohol is down, but some small factories in the Northeast are shut down, which still supports the mentality of the industry. The ethanol analysts of the business association predict that the probability of the price hike of the ethanol market in the northeast is high in the short term, thus promoting the general improvement of the domestic ethanol market.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market has been running steadily this week, with the average price of bromine maintained at about 300 million yuan / ton in the week, down 14.17% from the same period last year.

Two. Cause analysis

Product: at present, the domestic bromine market is in a weak and stable operation as a whole, and the overall operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. Affected by the poor global operation, the import of bromine has declined to a certain extent, which has a certain supporting effect on the domestic bromine price. However, due to the slow recovery of starting demand in the downstream flame retardant and bromine market, there is no obvious sign of improvement, so the bromine price is in a stable operation as a whole The supply and demand of the industry are still weak. At present, the quotation of mainstream enterprises is about 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream market of bromine in China is up and down in different ways this week, including stable operation of sulfur, which is about 627 yuan / ton at present; slight increase of 3.09% in sulfuric acid week, which is about 333 yuan / ton at present; slight decrease of 2.3% in caustic soda week, which is about 530 yuan / ton at present; stable operation of soda ash market, which is about 1563 yuan / ton at present. The market recovery of bromine main downstream flame retardants and bromides is slow, and the support for bromine price is insufficient. In the recovery of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries, the overall rigidity needs to be soft.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the domestic bromine market is stable, and there is no factor that can cause great fluctuations in the market in a short period of time. Therefore, the bromine price will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on March 31 was 3190 yuan / ton, which was 3053.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price on the first day of the month, up 7.42% in total in the month, down 11.91% compared with the same period last year. On April 2, the LNG commodity index was 80.60, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 61.43% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.07% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 2, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3300 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3220 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG plant was 3300 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2950 yuan / ton, according to the data monitoring of business agency Right, the price of Qinshui Xinao LNG in Shanxi is 3450 yuan / ton, that of Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. in Shaanxi is 3290 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and that of Qinghua LNG in Xinjiang is 3700 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: in March, domestic LNG rose continuously, becoming a little red in the collective decline of many energy commodities. In the first ten days, the domestic LNG market after the previous days of price reduction and traffic improvement, the delivery of liquid plants is gradually smooth. With the majority of downstream manufacturers returning to work, the demand has increased, providing support for the upward price of liquid, the liquid plants have obvious psychology of pushing the price, the domestic LNG market continues to rise, and the upward trend starts to slow down in the middle of the year. Since 15th, heating has been stopped in many places in the north, urban pipeline gas supply has been decreasing, and demand growth has slowed down, while LNG manufacturers’ operating rate has increased, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is still the same, the rise of liquid price lacks practical support, and the price has started to fall back. At the same time, the price of liquefied gas has declined significantly, and LNG users have begun to favor LPG with lower price. The price of imported gas has fallen continuously, seizing the domestic LNG market, and the price of domestic gas is subject to multiple constraints, which is vulnerable to fluctuations. In the late ten days, thanks to the national high-speed free policy, the demand for LNG trucks in Northwest China increased, the market trading atmosphere improved, the liquid price in some areas rose by taking advantage of the trend, and the rising mentality in areas with low price in the early stage was strong, but the rising trend was relatively moderate. Towards the end of the month, the market gradually recovered steadily, with little fluctuation, the downstream enterprises basically resumed production, the demand increased, and the liquid price in some areas was small Most of the prices are consolidation oriented and wait and see. As a whole, LNG market in March showed an upward trend of shock, and there is a risk of falling in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 19.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association: in April, heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the downstream of natural gas decreased gradually, the LNG market in China gradually entered the off-season. In addition, at present, the imported gas continuously gave way to the domestic LNG market, resulting in a large shipment pressure and high inventory of liquid plants. It is expected that LNG will still have a downward forecast in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

In March 2020, the crude benzene market continued to decline. The factory price in North China was 4231.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2668.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 36.94%.

On March 30, crude benzene commodity index was 41.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.30% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.47% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Crude Benzol market continued to decline in March 2020. Crude benzol market fell at the beginning of the month due to the sharp decline of crude oil and the continuous decline of pure benzene price. Around the middle of the year, the demand for downstream products of pure benzene has always been soft, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been continuously lowered, the domestic market has fallen, and crude benzene has been driven downward. In the middle and late ten days, the situation in foreign countries was not optimistic. The external market of pure benzene fell to a low level. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced to 2900 yuan / ton, which was lower than 5950 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival. The crude benzene market has always followed the trend of pure benzene, and the monthly decline of crude benzene market reached 36.94%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposes economic stimulus plan, overseas situation is not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure. The operating rate of aniline styrene in the downstream decreased, and the pure benzene inventory in the port area was high and the supply was sufficient. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is weak, and it is expected that the aftermarket atmosphere of crude benzene market will be empty.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: maleic anhydride market fell sharply in March

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of March 31 was 6100.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up and down by – 17.19% compared with 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The maleic anhydride commodity index on March 30th was 61.70, down 2.83 points from yesterday, down 50.11% from the highest point 123.67 (2017-12-26) in the cycle, and up 9.85% from the lowest point 56.17 on 02 / 16 / 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline in March, and maleic anhydride enterprises resumed work in March. The market supply increased, but the demand recovered slowly, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. At present, the trading volume of maleic anhydride is general, and the demand for procurement is the main one. The middlemen and the downstream have a strong wait-and-see mood for the future.

Industrial chain: international crude oil continued to fall sharply in March. At present, the downstream unsaturated resin recovery is slow and the terminal demand is general. According to the monitoring of business association, at present, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has declined significantly, some units have been shut down, and the price of the whole crude benzene industry chain has fallen sharply. At present, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The supply of n-butane is limited, and it is stable at present, and it is expected to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business association, at present, the maleic anhydride market is expected to decline in April due to the limited trading volume, weak upstream cost support, limited downstream demand, rigid demand for procurement, and slow resumption of the resin industry chain.

1、 Price trend

On March 28, the coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.23% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 136.83% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic coke market is stable this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai was 1730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou was 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong was 1690 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 1590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan / ton The mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1690 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1730 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of Ordos coke market The main price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1350 yuan / ton. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1950 yuan / ton, the trade of quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 1850 yuan / ton, and the trade of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1750 yuan / ton.

Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was 90.48 million US dollars.

Product: the domestic coke market price is stable this week, the downstream steel plants are gradually back to work, and the demand for coke has picked up to a certain extent. Most steel plants mainly purchase on demand. In terms of supply, coking enterprises started to reduce this week, with stable supply. Up to now, the main quotation of quasi first grade CDQ in Shanxi Province is between 1550-1650 yuan / ton. Recently, the stock of the port has increased, and the trading is relatively cold. At present, the quotation of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in the port area is kept at 1750 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The coke analysts of business club believe that the sufficient supply of Coke will last for a period of time in the short term, but because the demand side has not been significantly improved, the coke price is mainly weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market trend of domestic PA66 market in the second half of March was weak, and the price was mostly reduced. As of Friday, March 27, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 21850.00 yuan / ton, down 1.80% from the previous average price level in the second weekend of March.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 continued to be weak in the near future. Compared with that in the first half of the month, the price of dealers continued to be lowered. At present, adipic acid dealers are affected by the national health events, and the market entry situation is still not as good as that before. The market transportation situation is stable, but the shipment situation is not ideal due to the weak downstream demand. At present, the manufacturer’s operating rate remains stable and the inventory pressure is average. At present, under the situation of international crude oil and chemical industry market decline, adipic acid cost end support is weak, and it should maintain weak in the near future; while domestic PA66 market atmosphere remains cold, and the market is relatively weak. In terms of supply, the logistics resistance is gradually alleviated, and the old topic of supply and demand imbalance is highlighted in the field. At present, PA66 has sufficient spot goods, low starting load of downstream plants and weak demand. The enthusiasm of the participants is general, the on-site trading is rigid, and there is little large-scale stock up.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second half of March, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weakness. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream continued to decline, which gave poor support to the cost side of PA66. The return rate of downstream factories still needs to be improved. The strategy of “just need to take delivery” is generally implemented, and the demand is very limited. The market atmosphere is oversupplied, and the industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

On March 19, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 99.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.24% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 38.39% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, after the middle of March, the price of hydrogen peroxide fell. On March 19, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 913 yuan / ton, 1.79% lower than that on March 9.

market analysis

Since the middle of March, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have basically resumed construction. Due to the continuous decline in the price of terminal caprolactam products, the paper industry ushered in a callback, the terminal procurement was cautious, the hydrogen peroxide products were generally shipped, the manufacturers had insufficient confidence in the firm price, and the hydrogen peroxide price returned to the decline channel.

As of March 19, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong area: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price is 840 yuan / ton; the price is stable.

Hebei: Zhengyuan fertilizer Co., Ltd. quoted price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of 850 yuan / ton, with stable price. Anhui: Anhui Quansheng 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, the price dropped 50 yuan / ton.

Hunan Province: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1150 yuan / ton, the price dropped 50 yuan / ton.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price is 1100 yuan / ton, the price is stable.

Terminal: caprolactam was dragged down by the upstream, the pressure of enterprises was heavy, and the prices fell one after another, with a drop of nearly 2 points. The paper industry was affected by the sharp decline of waste paper, the corrugated paper industry ended the rising trend and continued the weak downward trend, the terminal performance was poor, the hydrogen peroxide market rose weakly, and the weak downward trend was mainly explored.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: due to the weak market of caprolactam in the terminal paper industry, it is difficult for hydrogen peroxide Market to rise sharply in the short term, or it will continue to explore mainly.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell this week, according to the data in the large list of business agencies. Under the influence of the overall market environment, the downstream customers’ purchasing mentality is slightly weak. They are cautious and wait-and-see. The market trading atmosphere is light. As of the 22nd, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9633.33 yuan / ton, down 2.36% compared with the beginning of the week and 17.90% compared with the same period last year. On the 22nd, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China was around 9300-9800 yuan / ton.

On March 22, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 68.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.12% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 45.21% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.16-3.20) fell 4.83% this week. By the end of 20th, the market turnover was 5650-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 5650-5750 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose and fell sharply; on the 16th, the price fell sharply again; on the 17th, it fell slightly; on the 18th, it fell sharply again; on the 19th, it recovered slightly. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later stage is also obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene in the later stage will continue to be affected by crude oil, mainly in-situ shocks. On the 20th, the downstream epoxy resin, the overall market atmosphere is light, the actual single transaction is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%), crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, in the near future, the upstream propylene price has fallen, the downstream epoxy resin trading is light, the epichlorohydrin has insufficient action power, and the market mentality is more cautious to wait and see. However, as the price continues to fall to a low level, the manufacturers’ low intention is weakened. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by stalemate consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to raw materials and mainstream markets Market transactions.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of March 20 was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a three-month cycle, down 10.66% year-on-year. On the 20th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was about 7000-7500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of raw material propylene continues to decline. Under the influence of the overall market environment, the purchasing mentality of downstream customers is slightly weak, but the overall start-up of the industry continues to be low. The downstream just needs to increase gradually. This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers is stable. On the 20th, the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. The price of acrylic acid was 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: as of March 19, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the price slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the twelfth day, the price of some enterprises rose slightly There was a slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. On the 16th, the price was stable, and on the 17th, 18th and 19th, the price dropped continuously. At present, the market turnover is 5700-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5700-5750 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on March 19, 2020, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (3.52%), ammonium chloride (2.85%) and dichloromethane (2.62%). There are 20 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 8.00%), propane (- 6.57%), chloroform (- 5.88%). The average price of this day was – 0.54%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analysts of the business association, the price of raw material propylene continues to decline and the support of the cost side weakens, but the industry’s operating rate continues to be low, the downstream demand gradually increases, and under the guidance of the supply and demand side, it is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and the market trend will be more focused on the transaction status.