On September 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices were temporarily stable on the 12th, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate manufacturer shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with the impact of environmental protection control, domestic downstream civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer start limited, the price maintained low on-site. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporary.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market has risen. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1 650 yuan/ton, and the price has risen by 50 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1650 yuan per ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650-1700 yuan/ton, price trend is rising. The situation of nitric acid shipment has not changed much, the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the trend of ammonium nitrate price is temporarily stable; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream maintains a low level, and the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 333.33 yuan/ton, and the liquid ammonia is affected by the lower cost in the upstream, together with the production plants. Most of the households have increased inventory pressure compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid ammonia is low. Ammonium nitrate Market has a negative impact. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 1994 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2090 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.81%, a rise of 0.19% annually and a decrease of 33.04% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is on the strong side this week, driven by the rise in futures prices. The trading atmosphere in the Mainland is good. Prices are pushed up by the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week. North China, Shandong and other places have followed the trend. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. Influenced by the upstream methanol market, some formaldehyde enterprises in Henan and Shandong markets raised their offer, while others stabilized temporarily. At present, construction in downstream areas is different. The market demand in the south is better than that in the north. On the whole, the demand side is general, and the support for the formaldehyde market is limited.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid Market regionally callback. After the previous period of continuous rise, the offer price of some regions is on the high side, and the market price difference is widening. With the supply of goods increasing, the offer of suppliers in Northwest China has taken the lead in declining continuously, falling to the mainstream negotiation area in North China and then holding a wait-and-see period. Although the bearish sentiment of all parties in the market is obvious, the equipment in East China has not been restored yet, and the mainstream of acetic acid market is strong. Since mid-week, Henan Shunda has fallen three days in a row, aggravating market hollowness, and East China parking facilities have been restored, some traders have high supply prices, for the latter period of sustained bearish, high acetic acid Market shocks, market stage vulnerability is obvious.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether market turnover prices fell first and then rose. At present, the overall start-up rate of domestic enterprises is about 21.78%, which is 2.41% higher than that of last week and 12.44% higher than that of last week. Overall, the domestic supply of goods is excessive as a whole, while the terminal market demand is limited, and prices continue to decline, which aggravates the mood of market buy-up and not buy-down, leading traders and end-users to prudent procurement, trading on demand procurement-based. This week, raw material methanol prices continued to rise due to the impact of peripheral and futures. This week, the average price of raw material methanol reached 2,000 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, the market price of methanol is relatively low, most of the market price is near the production line of methanol; on the methanol to olefin plant, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plant resume full-load production. This week, shipments were smooth in the main production areas of Northwest China, and most factories in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were closed down. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, with more than 1 million tons arriving in August and 90-950,000 tons estimated in September. New domestic methanol plants are being constructed in an orderly manner, including 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin, which is scheduled to be put into operation in October; Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, which is scheduled to be put into operation in September; Yingde, Jingmen, which has already produced its products in late August. Near National Day, environmental protection supervision in North China has been strengthened, and formaldehyde trade unions in North China are expected to decline in September. Market participants diverge greatly on the trend of the latter period; in the sensitive period before National Day, the delivery of methanol MA1909 is approaching, market uncertainty increases, and policy, financial and capital flows will guide the trend of methanol in a certain period of time; next week, the methanol market is expected to show regional market, and the stable trend of rise and fall will be reflected; Methanol fundamentals have not improved, and environmental protection and safety monitoring efforts have not decreased. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the trend of methanol near National Day is likely to show a weak oscillation.

Price Trend

According to business association monitoring, the price of power coal slightly declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of power coal was maintained at 582 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price of power coal was 581 yuan/ton, with the overall price falling by 0.17%. On September 5, the power coal commodity index was 70.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.02% from 103.01 points in the cycle (2011-11-15), and up 56.67% from 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

This week, the main domestic producer of power coal slipped slightly. From the basic point of view, there are two main reasons:

On the one hand, supply is steadily tightening, which supports the price of power coal. With the National Day approaching, all kinds of inspections will continue to be stringent, passive and active production reduction or shutdown of domestic power coal mines will increase, and coal supply will gradually tighten. In addition, port coal prices are relatively strong due to the support of TRADERS’shipping costs and the reduction of the number of shipments.

On the other hand, the daily consumption of power coal in downstream power plants has fallen and the price of power coal has been suppressed. According to business associations, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants fell to 650.07 million tons in early September. With the passing of high summer temperatures, the procurement rhythm of coastal power plants slowed down gradually, creating a negative impact on the power coal market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, the supply of power coal is steadily tightening, on the other hand, the daily consumption of power plants has fallen, comprehensive forecast of the future power coal market upstream and downstream game will continue, mainly price shocks.

Price Trend

This week (9.02-9.06) domestic 1 # antimony ingot prices fell, the domestic market at the beginning of the week average price at 37500 yuan / ton, weekend average price at 37750 yuan / ton, up 0.67%.

On September 6, the Sb Commodity Index was 52.55, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 48.64% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 11.86% from its lowest of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: This Wednesday, antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingots to stop falling and stabilize. This week, prices are stable and transactions are limited. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 3250 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 33750 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot prices stopped falling and stabilized this week, up about 250 yuan/ton from last week, mainly boosted by the success of Minmetals bidding and the gradual end of the off-season, but the market as a whole is mainly de-inventory, although prices have slightly boosted, but it still depends on whether the downstream follow-up, if the lack of downstream support, prices later. It’s still hard to be strong. As of Friday, the average price of 2 # low bismuth antimony ingots was 36,000 yuan/ton, 1 # antimony ingots 36500 yuan/ton, 0 # antimony ingots 37500 yuan/ton, and 2 # high bismuth antimony ingots was 35,000 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous Industries: This week, the Premier of the State Council chaired a national regular meeting, demanding timely use of policy tools such as general and directional reduction to increase support for the real economy; China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultation in Washington in early October, and the resumption of Sino-US negotiations had a pessimistic macro-sentiment towards the earlier stage. The final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to the 50-integer level in August and was better than expected, but it was still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warmer. In August, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone and France were higher than expected, while the Italian manufacturing PMI was below the 50-year-old level for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week’s macro news is optimistic, the overall mood has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen high, and the basic metals have rebounded sharply.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the market may usher in more long-term confidence in entering the market, and next week, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic 1_antimony ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 38900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 37500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down by 3.60%.

On August 31, the Sb Commodity Index was 52.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.98% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 11.11% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: Antimony industry chain as a whole follows the trend of antimony ingots, antimony ore and antimony trioxide Market weakened this month, antimony trioxide: affected by weak downstream demand, antimony trioxide market prices weakened as a whole until the end of the month 99.5% of domestic antimony trioxide quotation range in 31500-33000 yuan/ton, the average price of 32250 yuan/ton; 99.8% of countries; The quotation range for antimony trioxide production is 33,000-34,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 33,750 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot Market overall shocks lower this month, manufacturers still have a higher tender sentiment, but less transactions, downstream demand is flat, wait-and-see. Pan-Asian open judicial auction of 18660763 kg antimony in mid-January has had a certain impact on the antimony ingot market. Panic mood has improved slightly this week, but the downstream wait-and-see attitude is obvious and the market is cold. At the end of the month, the quotation range of 2_low density antimony ingot is 35500-36500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 36 000 yuan/ton; and 2 high density antimony ingot is 3450-35500 yuan/ton with an average price of 35 000 yuan/ton. The quotation range of 1_antimony ingot is 36,500 yuan/ton,

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar continues to rise, and we should be vigilant about the decline of the high level. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence in commodities. The surge of nickel is the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The basic metals may continue to keep a steady and rising rhythm next week, but the antimony industry is still in the middle and lower reaches of the traditional off-season in August. The terminal demand is limited, and it is expected that the whole antimony industry will remain weak for some time to come.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market fell in August. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3,546 yuan/ton, which was 1.39% lower than that of 3,591 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The market demand of asphalt in August has not been significantly boosted. In addition, the price of asphalt in August has dropped steadily due to the fluctuation of international oil prices.

Industry Chain: In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated and global risky assets plunged. Despite the firm attitude of OPEC and other countries to reduce production and the boost of U.S. crude oil production and inventories, international oil prices showed a general trend of fluctuation and decline. The monthly decline of WTI international crude oil futures price was 4.78%.

Asphalt market: The demand of asphalt terminal improved in August, and the overall performance of the market was stable. The winter storage resources in Northeast China began to be centralized and released, resulting in a continuous decline in market prices, an increase in the construction of municipal terminal projects in Shandong and North China, and an improvement in the shipment of refineries. Refinery shipments in East China are still relatively smooth and inventory continues to be low. There is more rainfall in South China, and terminal construction is still limited. The construction of terminal projects in Southwest China has increased, and the demand for asphalt is relatively good. It has been reported that China will stop importing Marui crude oil, but it has not been confirmed. In August, the typhoon affected some construction projects, and international crude oil prices fell as a whole. Overall, in the traditional peak demand season, terminal demand performance in most areas is still poor, and domestic asphalt market prices have declined steadily.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business association, believes that the international crude oil market will be stable in September, but as the National Day approaches, the northern terminal project may face the risk of shutdown, and the price of asphalt is expected to remain stable in September.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong province was 4866 yuan/ton this week, and the price was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800-4900 yuan/ton with tax. The price is stable for the time being. Weifang Xudong Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 20,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 5,000 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable for the time being. Influenced by environmental inspection factors, most manufacturers have stopped production, and their quotations are slightly firm.

Industry chain: The price of methanol on August 22 is mostly stable, and the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, the analysts of polyformaldehyde in business associations believe that the market of polyformaldehyde will run smoothly in the short term.

Price Trend

Shandong formaldehyde market remained stable this week, with an average price of 1166.67 yuan per ton. Current prices have fallen by 23.50% compared with last year, according to the Commodity List of Business Associations.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic formaldehyde market price is stable. At the weekend, Hebei mainstream factory quotation is about 1030 yuan/ton, South China mainstream factory quotation is about 1150 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream factory quotation is about 1080 yuan/ton, Jiangsu mainstream factory quotation is 1100 yuan/ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy produces 120,000 tons of formaldehyde annually, and the content of formaldehyde is 36.7-37%. The market supply of formaldehyde is general, and the price of formaldehyde is stable.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market is affected by high port inventory, and the actual demand is difficult to digest in a short time. The price at the beginning of the week is 2226.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week is 2190.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. No cost support for formaldehyde, formaldehyde manufacturers temporarily wait and see, the market atmosphere is cold, downstream plate enterprises maintain just need to purchase, on-site trading is more cautious, formaldehyde prices remain stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

In recent days, the upstream methanol market has fallen under the pressure of port inventory, and the cost support is weak. The downstream market is affected by environmental protection inspection. In some areas, small and medium-sized plate enterprises start to decline or even shut down completely. Insufficient demand leads to the overall market turnover is light. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the business society chemical branch expect that the domestic formaldehyde price will be weaker in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has gone out of a “V” trend in recent days, and this week has gone out of an upward trend of oscillation. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 7,435 yuan per ton, while on Thursday and Friday, the average price of enterprises was stable at a weekly high of 7,606 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.31%. On Saturday (August 17), propylene prices were 7,672 yuan per ton, falling by 3.09% on weekends and 0.85% on seven days.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, rebounded on 10 days, rose 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, stabilized on 15 days, began to decline sharply on 17 days, went 300 yuan/ton on three days, rebounded on 20 days and rebounded 150 yuan on 22 days./ About a ton, today’s stability, the current market turnover in the 7550 ~ 7700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is about 7550 yuan / ton. The supply of goods in Northeast China has decreased this week, but refineries have plenty of supplies and shipments are smooth.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market fluctuated sharply last week, with a sharp downward trend and a steady rebound in the later period. Now, the impact on propylene is relatively small. On the downstream side, the profit margin of the factory is still acceptable and the purchasing enthusiasm is good. This week, polypropylene futures prices have declined, spot prices have also declined, business start-up rate has declined, parking maintenance devices are more, the recent trend of PP is likely to continue to clean up and run, with little impact on propylene; acrylic acid prices have increased, but the overall downstream demand is general, more wait-and-see mentality, is expected to remain stable in the near future or will remain stable. The fixed operation has little effect on propylene, while the price of propylene oxide has little effect on propylene, and the overall price of epichlorohydrin has not moved up after the downturn, which has no pressure on the propylene market; while the price of n-butanol has continuously increased, with a 7-day increase of 4.69%, which is favorable to the propylene market; and the price of isooctanol has slightly decreased. After the recovery, the market is bullish, propylene also has a positive impact.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that in general, the recent international crude oil market is unstable, with a slight pullback, the PP spot market is relatively stable, the acrylic acid market is mainly on the horizon, propylene oxide is slightly up-regulated, epichlorohydrin is generally stable, butanol market is rising, the overall downstream profit margin is still available, procurement Propylene prices are expected to continue to rise in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose narrowly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8033 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.84% and a decrease of 3.21% annually over the same period of last year, and a decrease of 35.73% over the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market is steadily rising this week. The price of pure benzene of Sinopec increased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton by spot withdrawal. Hydrobenzene is also rising, and the cost is well supported. Cyclohexanone factory spot is not much, some factories are not exported, the overall spot supply is tight, downstream chemical fiber market has a certain demand, to support the market of cyclohexanone slightly, traders follow the rise, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Within a week, the ex-factory price of cyclohexanone was raised by 300 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton, which is about 300 yuan/ton higher than the ex-factory price last week. Huafeng’s newly commissioned cyclohexanone plant has not been exported for the time being, and has not yet had a significant impact on the market. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is 8300-8400 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream negotiation in East China market is 8500-8700 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is 8700-8800 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, pure benzene prices rose this week. The unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some large-scale installations within the week resulted in a reduction in outflow. While the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remains open, domestic import arrivals remain low, the overall market supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline to about 140,000 tons. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec added 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. Market prices also continued to rise to 5300-5350 yuan/ton.

Caprolactam: Domestic caprolactam liquid price is basically stable this week. The market cost and demand game of caprolactam increased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The price of pure benzene in East China market is still rising. The price of cyclohexanone is also rising in the week. The cost of caprolactam is strong. The supply side is slightly supported. In the early period, some parking and maintenance of Yangshan Coal, Luxi Coal and Haili Coal were carried out. The spot supply in the North was reduced, and the spot price in the North rose slightly. However, with the gradual recovery of sea power supply, the latter supply will also ease. The downstream PA6 chip market remains weak, aggregation centers on cost or partial loss, raw material procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the overall market price fluctuation is not large.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short run, the spot supply of cyclohexanone will not increase significantly. In the long run, the load of Huafeng plant will increase and the export will increase to a certain extent. Within a week, the spot of cyclohexanone factory was tight, and there was no pressure for export. The demand of terminal market remains weak, the downstream slice Market is weak, the profit margin of chemical fiber market is not large, the enthusiasm of entering the market is general, and the solvent market just needs to take delivery. With weak market demand, low profits from caprolactam plants purchasing cyclohexanone and the release of bad news about new capacity, business analysts of cyclohexanone expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to run smoothly with limited room for growth.