Price Trend

This week (9.02-9.06) domestic 1 # antimony ingot prices fell, the domestic market at the beginning of the week average price at 37500 yuan / ton, weekend average price at 37750 yuan / ton, up 0.67%.

On September 6, the Sb Commodity Index was 52.55, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 48.64% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 11.86% from its lowest of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: This Wednesday, antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingots to stop falling and stabilize. This week, prices are stable and transactions are limited. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 3250 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 33750 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot prices stopped falling and stabilized this week, up about 250 yuan/ton from last week, mainly boosted by the success of Minmetals bidding and the gradual end of the off-season, but the market as a whole is mainly de-inventory, although prices have slightly boosted, but it still depends on whether the downstream follow-up, if the lack of downstream support, prices later. It’s still hard to be strong. As of Friday, the average price of 2 # low bismuth antimony ingots was 36,000 yuan/ton, 1 # antimony ingots 36500 yuan/ton, 0 # antimony ingots 37500 yuan/ton, and 2 # high bismuth antimony ingots was 35,000 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous Industries: This week, the Premier of the State Council chaired a national regular meeting, demanding timely use of policy tools such as general and directional reduction to increase support for the real economy; China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultation in Washington in early October, and the resumption of Sino-US negotiations had a pessimistic macro-sentiment towards the earlier stage. The final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to the 50-integer level in August and was better than expected, but it was still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warmer. In August, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone and France were higher than expected, while the Italian manufacturing PMI was below the 50-year-old level for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week’s macro news is optimistic, the overall mood has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen high, and the basic metals have rebounded sharply.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the market may usher in more long-term confidence in entering the market, and next week, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic 1_antimony ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 38900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 37500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down by 3.60%.

On August 31, the Sb Commodity Index was 52.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.98% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 11.11% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: Antimony industry chain as a whole follows the trend of antimony ingots, antimony ore and antimony trioxide Market weakened this month, antimony trioxide: affected by weak downstream demand, antimony trioxide market prices weakened as a whole until the end of the month 99.5% of domestic antimony trioxide quotation range in 31500-33000 yuan/ton, the average price of 32250 yuan/ton; 99.8% of countries; The quotation range for antimony trioxide production is 33,000-34,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 33,750 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot Market overall shocks lower this month, manufacturers still have a higher tender sentiment, but less transactions, downstream demand is flat, wait-and-see. Pan-Asian open judicial auction of 18660763 kg antimony in mid-January has had a certain impact on the antimony ingot market. Panic mood has improved slightly this week, but the downstream wait-and-see attitude is obvious and the market is cold. At the end of the month, the quotation range of 2_low density antimony ingot is 35500-36500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 36 000 yuan/ton; and 2 high density antimony ingot is 3450-35500 yuan/ton with an average price of 35 000 yuan/ton. The quotation range of 1_antimony ingot is 36,500 yuan/ton,

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar continues to rise, and we should be vigilant about the decline of the high level. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence in commodities. The surge of nickel is the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The basic metals may continue to keep a steady and rising rhythm next week, but the antimony industry is still in the middle and lower reaches of the traditional off-season in August. The terminal demand is limited, and it is expected that the whole antimony industry will remain weak for some time to come.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market fell in August. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3,546 yuan/ton, which was 1.39% lower than that of 3,591 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The market demand of asphalt in August has not been significantly boosted. In addition, the price of asphalt in August has dropped steadily due to the fluctuation of international oil prices.

Industry Chain: In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated and global risky assets plunged. Despite the firm attitude of OPEC and other countries to reduce production and the boost of U.S. crude oil production and inventories, international oil prices showed a general trend of fluctuation and decline. The monthly decline of WTI international crude oil futures price was 4.78%.

Asphalt market: The demand of asphalt terminal improved in August, and the overall performance of the market was stable. The winter storage resources in Northeast China began to be centralized and released, resulting in a continuous decline in market prices, an increase in the construction of municipal terminal projects in Shandong and North China, and an improvement in the shipment of refineries. Refinery shipments in East China are still relatively smooth and inventory continues to be low. There is more rainfall in South China, and terminal construction is still limited. The construction of terminal projects in Southwest China has increased, and the demand for asphalt is relatively good. It has been reported that China will stop importing Marui crude oil, but it has not been confirmed. In August, the typhoon affected some construction projects, and international crude oil prices fell as a whole. Overall, in the traditional peak demand season, terminal demand performance in most areas is still poor, and domestic asphalt market prices have declined steadily.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business association, believes that the international crude oil market will be stable in September, but as the National Day approaches, the northern terminal project may face the risk of shutdown, and the price of asphalt is expected to remain stable in September.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong province was 4866 yuan/ton this week, and the price was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800-4900 yuan/ton with tax. The price is stable for the time being. Weifang Xudong Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 20,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 5,000 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable for the time being. Influenced by environmental inspection factors, most manufacturers have stopped production, and their quotations are slightly firm.

Industry chain: The price of methanol on August 22 is mostly stable, and the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, the analysts of polyformaldehyde in business associations believe that the market of polyformaldehyde will run smoothly in the short term.

Price Trend

Shandong formaldehyde market remained stable this week, with an average price of 1166.67 yuan per ton. Current prices have fallen by 23.50% compared with last year, according to the Commodity List of Business Associations.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic formaldehyde market price is stable. At the weekend, Hebei mainstream factory quotation is about 1030 yuan/ton, South China mainstream factory quotation is about 1150 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream factory quotation is about 1080 yuan/ton, Jiangsu mainstream factory quotation is 1100 yuan/ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy produces 120,000 tons of formaldehyde annually, and the content of formaldehyde is 36.7-37%. The market supply of formaldehyde is general, and the price of formaldehyde is stable.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market is affected by high port inventory, and the actual demand is difficult to digest in a short time. The price at the beginning of the week is 2226.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week is 2190.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. No cost support for formaldehyde, formaldehyde manufacturers temporarily wait and see, the market atmosphere is cold, downstream plate enterprises maintain just need to purchase, on-site trading is more cautious, formaldehyde prices remain stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

In recent days, the upstream methanol market has fallen under the pressure of port inventory, and the cost support is weak. The downstream market is affected by environmental protection inspection. In some areas, small and medium-sized plate enterprises start to decline or even shut down completely. Insufficient demand leads to the overall market turnover is light. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the business society chemical branch expect that the domestic formaldehyde price will be weaker in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has gone out of a “V” trend in recent days, and this week has gone out of an upward trend of oscillation. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 7,435 yuan per ton, while on Thursday and Friday, the average price of enterprises was stable at a weekly high of 7,606 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.31%. On Saturday (August 17), propylene prices were 7,672 yuan per ton, falling by 3.09% on weekends and 0.85% on seven days.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, rebounded on 10 days, rose 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, stabilized on 15 days, began to decline sharply on 17 days, went 300 yuan/ton on three days, rebounded on 20 days and rebounded 150 yuan on 22 days./ About a ton, today’s stability, the current market turnover in the 7550 ~ 7700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is about 7550 yuan / ton. The supply of goods in Northeast China has decreased this week, but refineries have plenty of supplies and shipments are smooth.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market fluctuated sharply last week, with a sharp downward trend and a steady rebound in the later period. Now, the impact on propylene is relatively small. On the downstream side, the profit margin of the factory is still acceptable and the purchasing enthusiasm is good. This week, polypropylene futures prices have declined, spot prices have also declined, business start-up rate has declined, parking maintenance devices are more, the recent trend of PP is likely to continue to clean up and run, with little impact on propylene; acrylic acid prices have increased, but the overall downstream demand is general, more wait-and-see mentality, is expected to remain stable in the near future or will remain stable. The fixed operation has little effect on propylene, while the price of propylene oxide has little effect on propylene, and the overall price of epichlorohydrin has not moved up after the downturn, which has no pressure on the propylene market; while the price of n-butanol has continuously increased, with a 7-day increase of 4.69%, which is favorable to the propylene market; and the price of isooctanol has slightly decreased. After the recovery, the market is bullish, propylene also has a positive impact.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that in general, the recent international crude oil market is unstable, with a slight pullback, the PP spot market is relatively stable, the acrylic acid market is mainly on the horizon, propylene oxide is slightly up-regulated, epichlorohydrin is generally stable, butanol market is rising, the overall downstream profit margin is still available, procurement Propylene prices are expected to continue to rise in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose narrowly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8033 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.84% and a decrease of 3.21% annually over the same period of last year, and a decrease of 35.73% over the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market is steadily rising this week. The price of pure benzene of Sinopec increased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton by spot withdrawal. Hydrobenzene is also rising, and the cost is well supported. Cyclohexanone factory spot is not much, some factories are not exported, the overall spot supply is tight, downstream chemical fiber market has a certain demand, to support the market of cyclohexanone slightly, traders follow the rise, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Within a week, the ex-factory price of cyclohexanone was raised by 300 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton, which is about 300 yuan/ton higher than the ex-factory price last week. Huafeng’s newly commissioned cyclohexanone plant has not been exported for the time being, and has not yet had a significant impact on the market. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is 8300-8400 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream negotiation in East China market is 8500-8700 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is 8700-8800 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, pure benzene prices rose this week. The unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some large-scale installations within the week resulted in a reduction in outflow. While the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remains open, domestic import arrivals remain low, the overall market supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline to about 140,000 tons. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec added 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. Market prices also continued to rise to 5300-5350 yuan/ton.

Caprolactam: Domestic caprolactam liquid price is basically stable this week. The market cost and demand game of caprolactam increased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The price of pure benzene in East China market is still rising. The price of cyclohexanone is also rising in the week. The cost of caprolactam is strong. The supply side is slightly supported. In the early period, some parking and maintenance of Yangshan Coal, Luxi Coal and Haili Coal were carried out. The spot supply in the North was reduced, and the spot price in the North rose slightly. However, with the gradual recovery of sea power supply, the latter supply will also ease. The downstream PA6 chip market remains weak, aggregation centers on cost or partial loss, raw material procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the overall market price fluctuation is not large.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short run, the spot supply of cyclohexanone will not increase significantly. In the long run, the load of Huafeng plant will increase and the export will increase to a certain extent. Within a week, the spot of cyclohexanone factory was tight, and there was no pressure for export. The demand of terminal market remains weak, the downstream slice Market is weak, the profit margin of chemical fiber market is not large, the enthusiasm of entering the market is general, and the solvent market just needs to take delivery. With weak market demand, low profits from caprolactam plants purchasing cyclohexanone and the release of bad news about new capacity, business analysts of cyclohexanone expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to run smoothly with limited room for growth.

Price Trend

According to the business association’s large list data, this week, the price of pure benzene of Sinopec’s enterprises was stable, the price of Sinopec and some refineries increased, and the price gap between Sinopec and Sinopec decreased. This week, the domestic price of pure benzene (except Sinopec) increased by about 150 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday (Aug. 16). The price was between 4900 and 5100 yuan/ton, up 0.75%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: This week, the inventory of pure benzene port decreased by about 0.5 million tons compared with last week, and the domestic inventory of pure benzene is also declining. There is no pressure on pure benzene inventory.

2. Crude Oil: Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia took action to prevent oil prices from falling, and the United States deferred tariff increases on some products to December, boosting the market and boosting international oil prices. In the latter half of the week, fears of a possible intensification of the trade war reignited, and fears of a slowdown in crude oil demand deepened. Oil prices stopped rising and fell. The positive and negative factors offset each other. This week’s WTI and Brent oil prices were basically flat compared with last week’s.

3. Relevant industries: This week, affected by typhoon, the price of hydrobenzene has risen, and the low-price supply is hard to find, which will benefit the pure benzene market. Downstream styrene rose by 1.2% from last week, which also supports the price of pure benzene.

4. External offer: Although Asian foreign offer is short of quotation guidance due to closure at the beginning of this week, the price of pure benzol US dollar has risen, and the US-ROK arbitrage window has opened, which has formed a favorable support for the domestic market.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: The trend of crude oil in the later period is still uncertain, mainly related to the situation of trade war and crude oil demand.

2. Domestic market: Pure benzene downstream demand is weak, but Sinopec pure benzene inventory is low, price is strong, has certain support for the domestic market.

3. External Disc: With the successive arrival of goods from the United States, prices will fall, but the price gap between Asia and the United States still exists. The main purpose of Korea’s export resources is still the United States. China’s import resources are still relatively small, and the supply and demand side has not been improved.

Taking into account, the price of pure benzene is expected to rise slightly next week.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5380 yuan/ton, rising by 0.19% annually, and falling by 3.45% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, some markets in the alcohol market have seen mixed ups and downs. Fukang plant in northeastern Jilin area started construction, the quotation of enterprises was stable, the mentality of individual small factories was positive, the low-end price went down, the price of Heilongjiang area remained stable, and the freight price was higher; the general level in eastern China was slightly weaker, the enterprises started less under the pressure of cost, and the downstream consumed more Northeast supply; Henan area was thick. Source equipment parking continued, quotation remained firm, low-end market prices slightly rebounded; South China enterprises are currently only in Xintiande, Guangxi Zhongliang, Haiying, other basic equipment parking, liquor purchasing light, part of the goods to Yunnan or Guangdong, anhydrous gold source inventory is not high, profitable from supply side. With good support, prices went up and Xintiande prices went up. There was no water coming to Hong Kong from other places. Production enterprises in Guangdong made high offers. There were low-end prices in the market, and the supply was not much.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1740 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand remained stable, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava entered the starch market more and dried chips exported less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price of East China 1900-1920 yuan/ton, and domestic East China purchased goods from Northeast China and sold them. Enterprises have more inventories and less start-up. The exchange rate of RMB has broken 7 short of domestic imports. Downstream, Ethyl acetate in East China was 5700 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 1.79% from last week’s price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Enterprise equipment in Northeast China is gradually normal, Dongfeng plant is expected to open in a short time, supply recovery, a small number of orders continue to carry out, downstream demand needs to pay attention to the downstream chemical purchasing situation, liquor purchasing is not warming up at present, the short-term market is expected to remain small consolidation; Henan thick-source plant is unstable, It is expected that the short-term market will remain stable, the construction situation in East China will not improve in the short term, the downstream will consume more Northeast supply, the start-up load of enterprises will not be high, and the loss will continue; the supply and demand in South China will be weak, liquor purchasing is not obvious, there will be no water supply in other places, and the supply of gold will continue to decrease. It is expected that Guangdong will have a high level in the short term. Likewise, Guangxi remains stable. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable and small in the short term.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remains stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up is limited. Domestic prices remain low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 1950-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1693.33 yuan/ton by the end of the week, this week’s price trend is stable, the domestic nitric acid market price remains low, mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province offer 1680 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province offer 1700 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers offer 1700 yuan/ton, nitric acid walks. Generally speaking, the low price of upstream nitric acid market has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market price; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has declined sharply, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The upstream cost of liquid ammonia is affected by the downstream cost, and the inventory pressure of most producers has increased compared with the previous period. In addition, part of the plant was restarted and local ammonia supply increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers had sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China remained above and below 2900-3400 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China was between 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The decline of liquid ammonia market brought certain negative effects on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. Ring. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate market remains low. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high. The market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market is general, downstream civilian explosion industry parks more, coupled with the upstream raw material market nitric acid price slightly declined, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices slightly lower, coupled with poor demand downstream, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.