Private investor cut-loss while Institutional opportunistic go short

Over the past three weeks, the domestic commodity market has plummeted, the black plate led the trend shocking, coking coal, coke, steel, iron ore and other products in the past three trading days across the board refresh the new low of 2017. On the black products, the midline prospects exist “Mishap”, may trend differentiation.

This year’s March-May plummeted in the trend, iron ore to lead the decline, the Dalian Futures Exchange iron ore main contract since mid-March highs fell to a week this week, a range of 35.6%; rebar futures The main contract since mid-March high point so far the rate of return is just 20%; coking coal from the end of March 1900 yuan / ton higher than the fall of the rate of even better, 21.4%.

Guangzhou Daily reporter surveyed in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the two markets, found that now adhere to the “do” the retail is now running out, and the end of April, most retail still think that black products have “play”. Now part of the retail has been “flesh” out, some retail investors have begun to “short.” The Shenzhen futures brokerage platform statistics show that its investment in black products, the mainstream institutions, corporate investors positions also decreased by 30% over the same period in April, holding wait and see and opportunistic short, become the current attitude of these investors.

Guangzhou Daily reporter learned that the recent black prices caused by the collapse of the main reasons for the following three. First, the off-season demand is not busy than in previous years. Is still in the 3 to 5 months of the traditional off-season, in addition to building materials spiral inventory digestion is still possible, plate type of digestion is not satisfactory, short-term to the stock pressure. Second, iron ore stocks are at historically high levels. As of the end of April, the main port iron ore stocks reached 131.95 million tons. Third, the technical callback pressure, the organization “short” will greater than “do more” will. 2016 years since February 2017, the black plate for 20 consecutive months soared, the majority of black varieties of the cumulative increase over 50%, profit to form a lot of institutional options.

Steel hockey has ended

Late investment and more “short” ideas

Only from a technical point of view, the current trend of bulk commodity crash, so far did not stop, although the individual species appeared signs of bottoming, but the whole still do not know when the end is the end. Professionals advise investors to be cautious “bargain-hunting”.

Huatai futures (Guangzhou) Zhang Sheng analysis that: the possibility of differentiation of large commodity market outlook, black product plate itself will be differentiated. The prospect of declining varieties of iron ore is the most pessimistic, because iron ore is an international product, subject to the domestic supply side of the structural reform of the best influence of the smallest, the global high inventory will restrict its rebound; rebar up to 1 year and a half “Honeymoon period” to May this year is limited, has ended, the property market regulation overweight, will offset the supply side of the structural reform brought about by the promotion, tend to midline low consolidation, the proposed investors to short thinking; For coking coal, coke products, after the crash may be the first to rebound, investors may wish to bargain hunters.

In recent years, there are some companies really want to enhance corporate profit margins by pesticides, therefore also put a lot of manpower and resources. Admittedly, some companies deliberately create high-profile publicity products, to create products as a gimmick, take their own hype. This part of the business practice is questionable.

Earlier this year, several new pesticides on the Internet is very hot interest, so in the Institute website a lot, the results are not found the drug registration information. So I guess this several new drugs, not through the safety evaluation, currently only trial stage. So the site can not find drug registration information, there is no way of knowing the structure of new compounds.

Why should we pay attention to the structure of compounds? Because some pesticide enterprises, just a group of foreign patent products do some fine-tuning, such as methyl ethyl replaced, it may be put into methyl or ethyl isobutyl, then transformed into a new product to sell, or a new component called under the guise of bound pesticide retailers and other products.
The structure changes of value?. You want to ah, only the new tuning group, structure activity might be better than the original product, but as long as the use of quantity increase, the effect is not bad to where. But compared to the high profits of patent products and similar control target specific, this cost can be ignored.

on Wednesday, China’s sulphur market in a narrow market rise, outside the tender price is higher, boosting the domestic market mentality, holding the goods were optimistic, pushing up the market of domestic sulfur atmosphere.

In February 14th, Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery 700 tons output near the solid sulfur price in 870 yuan / ton, the liquid sulfur price in 820 yuan / ton, the solid sulfur loading costs 8 yuan, 20 yuan fare with liquid sulfur. Sinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical production capacity of 130 thousand tons, sulfur price, solid sulfur price in 830 yuan / ton, the liquid sulfur price in 780 yuan / ton, sulfur containing 12 yuan fare, sulfur noinstalling fare, the normal monthly production of 7000 tons of liquid, the main supply area of Jiangsu sulfuric acid factory.

The ports, ports of the Yangtze River downstream plant procurement is not much, holding the goods to wait, bulk particles reference price 910-915 yuan / ton; Qingdao port inventory 70 thousand tons of sulfur, currently holding the goods were optimistic, South Korea block powder reference price of 830 yuan / ton, pushing up the market atmosphere thick. The Lantern Festival market rebound, stable domestic refinery shipments, to narrow the main sulfur price increase, later need to focus on the downstream procurement.

his week potassium chloride market prices will remain stable trend, the potassium chloride market mainstream offer price at 1944 yuan / ton.

quotations analysis

Product: this week the potassium chloride market prices remain strong, the overall market performance is relatively light, although the emergence of downstream order phenomenon, but a wait-and-see attitude are not new single turnover. The shipment of domestic potassium eased slightly, various regions have different degrees of volume, Saline Lake group 60% station grain price in 1970 yuan / ton. The port, in the absence of demand to support the case, some traders realized psychological enhancement, resulting in prices slightly loose, 62% White Russian basic potassium in 2050-2080 yuan / ton, 60% Russian red potassium prices in 1960-1980 yuan / ton, a single on the actual.

Downstream industry chain: fertilizer plant devices continue to back production, the manufacturer of the whole device starts into about 5. The market demand gradually started, the market order enthusiasm slowly improved, operation support strong market to a certain extent.

Market forecast

At present, the major port dealer sales release, the venue can sell sufficient supply. Is expected in the short term price of potassium chloride will be relaxed.

From the disk, because the current demand in the doldrums, plastic spot and futures prices are weak, North China recent spot price has dropped to 10000 yuan / ton, but the price drop but is conducive to traders and downstream enterprises to actively promote material delivery, demand.

Sinopec is expected to gradually digest inventory pressure

During the Spring Festival, the domestic petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, the week of February 3rd to a peak of polyethylene inventory accumulation, petrochemical stocks reached 980 thousand tons, an increase of 67%; port inventories increased 48%; total inventories increased 44.7%. The Spring Festival holiday spot market most closed, suspend the accumulation of a large number of stock circulation cause. At the same time, January polyethylene imports increase, port cargo export difficulties and other factors also lead to a substantial increase in the port inventory, part ofport full phenomenon.

Although the short-term polyethylene stocks sharply accumulation, but not too much pressure.

First, inventory accumulation is mainly affected by the effect of the Spring Festival, the market has long been expected, so the pressure on prices is not too large;

Second, after the first working day of the peak of 980 thousand tons of petrochemical stocks have slowly fall in;

Third, the recent Petrochemical stocks relatively the same period in three years is not high, the same period of 2014 inventory 1 million 150 thousand tons, the same period of 2015 inventory 950 thousand tons, inventory 940 thousand tons over the same period in 2016. Therefore, the short term, high inventory will have a certain pressure on the market, but the overall pressure is not too large. Is expected to accumulate 2 months late during the Spring Festival will gradually digest inventory, the possibility of PE price rebound.

In summary, the fundamentals of plastic quietly began from “no” to “Thailand” change, plastic prices are expected to rebound.

But after the southern mountain area of farmland in silence, looking around, there is no shelter grass green rice production, years of accumulated under the agricultural packaging waste pollution shocking. Ditch, pesticide bottles scattered messy, ridge next to no plastic tray burn free packing, wind projections, a small pile of herbicide bag was Roll Heaven, the air floated strange smell.

“A year grain seedling using County tens of millions of millions of bags, pesticide bottles, many are thrown in the fields, become a ‘bomb’ pollution!” recently, “Economic Reference News” in an interview with reporters in Hunan and other major agricultural province, many cadres and the masses, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, seedling such as agricultural new varieties to improve agricultural production efficiency emerge in an endless stream, at the same time, also increased the amount of agricultural packaging waste. The recovery system is not perfect, such as the old seedling tray, pesticide bottles, bags and other pesticides was largely abandoned in the fields, resulting in farmland pollution is becoming more complex, not all old waste, pollution and new arrival, makes the heart sick.

To improve the efficiency of agricultural upgrade

When the Southern farmers plowing agricultural reserve stage, with Hunan County of Hengyang agricultural supply, large grain of Liu Cuiqing believes that the past agricultural variety, supply shortages often, these problems are now gone for ever, ample supply of agricultural means of production, and agricultural upgrade, new varieties are more and more, brings convenience to agricultural production.

He said that with the seedling as an example, before or in the fields of direct seeding, either in nursery seedlings after transplanting to field in manual transplanting. Direct sowing while saving time and labor, but not a strong seedlings, encountered “unusually cold spell” cold dew wind “, will lead to a large area of dead seedlings. Nursery seedlings can improve the survival rate of seedlings, but the method is too traditional, time-consuming and laborious. In recent years, the tray is popularized, seedling raising process less cumbersome, seedling quality is guaranteed, the survival rate is greatly improved, also convenient for transplanting and throwing, save a lot of manpower.

Compared with the past, pesticide varieties are more and more. In the city of Xiangtan agricultural market, dealer Peng Jianlai said vividly before pesticide varieties, the toxicity is too large, the idea is similar to the farmers’ pesticide insecticide would rather kill one thousand, you can not let go of a”. In recent years, the wrong idea gradually reversed, according to the types of diseases and insect pests, pesticides are generally divided into a subdivision, insecticides, fungicides, acaricides, nematicides, rodenticides, defoliants, herbicides, plant growth regulators and other categories.

Peng Jianlai told reporters, each class consists of many types of pesticides, pesticides now common on the market about 100 kinds of pesticides, pesticide refinement, farmers are more targeted, more efficient and less pesticide, pesticide residues.

With all kinds of economic crop acreage increased, the plastic film is also a large number of entering the field of agricultural production, some become plastic, some become greenhouse film, popular with farmers welcome. Xiangtan County farmers Hu Xiaocheng told reporters that the film can maintain soil moisture, improve soil temperature, prevent pests and microorganisms can grow crops, in season vegetables, from the economic point of view, these bring a good agricultural economic accounts.

The old did not go to the new sewage and sewage

Analysis January 23rd Shandong Yankuang acetic

anhydride unit normal, manufacturers have sales, prices for 5000 yuan / ton.

India this week outside castor oil prices, New Year approaching, domestic castor oil market in general, sales line, inventory is low, some manufacturers to stop production holiday, castor oil price stability. Castor oil is quoted in the mainstream 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

In January 20th, the normal operation of Inner Mongolia Tianrun castor Development Co. Ltd. India industrial production device, castor oil’s price for 11500 yuan / ton (including tax), normal construction, sales, price stability. Zibo Zhoucun Ming Tung Chemical castor oil price stability, industrial grade castor oil (grade one) ex factory price of 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), the weak market demand, sales, inventory amount. Nanjing Qianyue chemical refining level of castor oil price stability, price is 11000 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for castor oil is also OK, general sales. Wenshui the Yellow River County Oil Company Limited industrial grade refined castor oil price is 11300 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, price stability. Xinji City Han Sen plant oil, castor oil prices remain stable, the price of a product of refined net 11600 yuan / ton, factory sales, less inventory, normal production.

This week the castor oil market price stability, recently domestic castor oil manufacturers sales line, market demand, WaiPan prices rise, the exchange rate, but the year is approaching, the majority of manufacturers to wait and see, the market outlook is expected to price stability of castor oil.

Finance it is understood that the recent domestic n-butanol market as a whole to discuss the atmosphere more active, cost pressures will increase and some manufacturers, downstream factories before stocking will slightly better, the market turnover improved.

In January 19th the domestic n-butanol market overview:

The domestic market a slight increase in butanol, today the mainstream manufacturers generally increase 100 yuan / ton.

Mainstream market in Shandong 6100-6200 yuan / ton.

At the mainstream market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang plate 6300-6400 yuan / ton.

Shandong lihuayi n-butanol products offer temporary stability, 6000-6100 yuan / ton; the plant annual production capacity of 85 thousand tons, a device operating rate of 6 percent, low inventory.

Market summary: overall ample supply at present. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market is expected to the atmosphere will gradually fade, the downstream movement of raw materials continue to wait and see.

Although there is no substantial growth, the 2017 new year since international oil prices remained at $55, but if the Brent crude oil futures prices, compared to 2016 rose nearly $22 a barrel at the beginning of the year. From the industry point of view, pessimism facing the 2017 oil industry obviously compared to 2016 to ease a lot.

On the one hand, OPEC members continue to be exposed to cut news;

On the other hand, the United States is increasing the number of oil shale. Although compared to last year’s low, crude oil prices actually rose a lot, but for a large company legislator who, 2017 investment expansion will still not strong. In addition, liquefied natural gas (LNG) will usher in a much wider range of excess supply is also a important variable in 2017 or.

In fact, OPEC, shale oil and LNG like three huge undercurrent, the “fighting game” a situation of tripartite confrontation will determine the price trend in 2017.

In January 17th, BP’s chief executive, to the media said that this year the company’s annual investment remained below $17 billion, compared to $6 billion less 2014. The company in 2016 and finally out of the “Gulf of Mexico” quagmire, since the end of last year in the assets invested more than 4 billion dollars.

While the national producers in this round of rebound in oil prices played a very important role, in December last year, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 countries reached an agreement to cut output, although the implementation of this agreement is to be audited, but many countries have begun to implement, and has certain effect in the market.

For Chinese, oil and gas market ushered in a more uncertain year in 2017 will be. “Compared to 2016 2017, there will be tens of millions of tons of the refinery production.” Anxunsi Chinese research director Li Li told reporters. In addition to the new capacity, refined oil wholesale market price war.

The decision to implement the lower limit of oil production