In the January-February big … from 2 to 5 months of the fall … and then known as the Jedi fight back in May, so that players have become increasingly difficult to figure out the pace of polymerization MDI market price changes. I believe everyone on the black stock market in 2016 memories, especially in August to September domestic black material market prices rose 8400 yuan / ton. Recent domestic MDI market price increases compared with the 2016 years, there is nothing more than that.

The author in the afternoon of May 8 has been found in the black material market, the spot is not easy to find, because I continued to fall sharply due to the impact of panic mentality, and did not expect the market will rebound, it is not caused by this phenomenon Attention. The next two weeks, the domestic market price of black material into the sky soaring model, Shanghai cargo from 19500 yuan / ton up to 22,500 yuan / ton, up to 3,000 yuan / ton. In this first Congratulations to you to buy the goods friends, you in the award, and congratulations to make a fortune!

In the past 2017 May, the feelings of the black material colleagues is difficult to calm down. Everyone in the process of grasping the black material in the process of varying degrees of Taro behavior, that is, a large number of low-cost early Paohuo, rising trend in a timely manner a large number of short covering, the price rise and not dare to purchase high prices and low-priced futures, Hearty and a small amount of catch a little goods, do not know which type you belong to.

Recalling the May 2017 black material market and 2016 in August and September 2016 and December 2017 – February 2017, three of the reasons for the rise in black material prices are different, the market behavior is different.

First, the number of imported MDI continued to shrink, the domestic market is difficult to find the spot

March 2, 2017, South Korea Kumho Mitsui M200 transaction price of 2900 US dollars / ton in the vicinity, equivalent to 25,000 yuan / ton. Then, the domestic MDI market prices into the downward trend, until the beginning of May the domestic M200 market price fell to 19,600 yuan / ton. In other words, after December 2016, the procurement of MDI has been all the fall.

So the brutal decline in the atmosphere, leading to the import of Korean goods read was denied. At the same time, near the stage of Korea Kumho Mitsui MDI device operating rate of only five percent, just to meet their own domestic market demand, has no time to take into account the export to the Chinese market. During this period, China only a very small number of imported traders in order to maintain relations of cooperation, a small amount of imports of teeth, but also in advance of the way to reduce the loss of pre-sale expectations.

Second, the trend of prices, although crazy, hoard goods behavior has been cautious

Although the domestic polymer MDI market conditions are always thunderbolt as the trend of rising, but the recent stage of the traders and downstream users have not so crazy. One was bitten by the snake for three years afraid of the rope ah, especially in January 2017 before the Spring Festival crazy stockpile was hurt too deep.

The essence of price increases is due to the supply of aggregated MDI suppliers, coupled with the scarcity of social stock, highlights the illusion that has just led to short supply.

Downstream users after a number of dealers and traders after the goods, found that the market is not easy to find the spot MDI polymerization. And dealers and traders found that the recent purchase of goods downstream customers suddenly more, so have the price and reluctant to sell the phenomenon. During this period, the polymerization of MDI suppliers to extend the delivery time, and another phenomenon is not reported closed, exacerbate the status of tight supply. Now think about it, may be so much demand, contact a lot of dealers and traders, resulting in this time the market misunderstanding it. In the offer quickly pulled up and the momentum of the momentum, driven by the domestic polymerization MDI market prices ushered in a sharp rise in the trend.

However, the downstream users just need to be limited, combined with prudent stockpile behavior, there is no big outbreak of the phenomenon of orders, there is no price spike behavior. Overall, the demand in May tepid, can only say that slightly better than March and April only.

Third, support is still there, pay close attention to supplier trends

Beginning this week, the domestic polymer MDI market supply situation will be eased

This week and last week, the purchase of MDI futures will be in the May 22 before and after the arrival of goods, in addition to delivery of pre-sale part of the spot began to actively sell. Although the overall number is not too much, but also basically meet the current customers just need and a small amount of hoard goods needs. The polymerization of MDI traders in the price before the purchase of 44V20 to 20000-20400 yuan / ton, PM200 for the 201500-21700 yuan / ton, and now the spot price in the market were 22,500 yuan / ton and 23,000 yuan / ton, profit Has been very impressive, continue to imagine the space has been insufficient, profit trailer competing shipments, will suppress the market price tends to be stable. With the aggregation of MDI manufacturers announced in June the price policy release date approaching, indicating that the dealers will soon be able to pre-sale and delivery of June supply.

The pilot price of each MDI supplier will support the market in June

This weekend, to Wanhua as the representative of the MDI suppliers will be announced in June listing price and supply policy. Old rules, we come to look at what will be implemented in June price, discount supply of a price policy should be unexpected. At present, the domestic polymer MDI market after a sharp rebound, Wanhua spot transaction price concentrated in 23,000 yuan / ton, due to the listing in May a price of 23,000 yuan / ton, so with the May market rebound trend, Wanhua June MDI listing Settlement price will rise.

So the question came, how much is the listing price rise in June? I think at least up to 1,000 yuan / ton, million in June MDI listing price will reach at least 24,000 yuan / ton, then the price of its dealer costs will be flat with the current market price. If the listing price is less than or equal to 24,000 yuan / ton, is undoubtedly to the market poured a pot of cold water, lack of support for the market mentality, basically not likely to occur; 24500-25000 yuan / ton almost no more moderate; 25,500 yuan / ton on some too much.

Dharma Cliff Sword, Dow’s Polymer MDI what time to enter China

According to foreign media reports, Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year of polymer MDI device has been successfully put into operation, the test material has been shipped to Europe.

According to Dow Asia Pacific official news, from the Saudi MDI originally planned to arrive in China in June, is delayed until July, but the current time is uncertain, the message level of caution.

According to the author of roadside news reported that the number of Dow MD from Saudi Arabia is very large, in addition to meet the needs of China’s direct supply to customers, there will be a large number of goods supply dealer channels. It is said that Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year MDI device all produce polymer MDI, we have reason to believe that the quality of Dow Aggregate MDI will compete with Wanhua, the price will compete in Shanghai cargo. At present, Dow has not completely want to understand how so many goods in the Chinese market to play.

In the current market environment, the polymerization of MDI suppliers for the control of the market, only to control the supply of goods.

June MDI market is more embarrassing, Dow polymerization MDI large number of access to the Chinese market, and Wanhua, Bayer, BASF and other suppliers to compete. In the absence of a timetable, there is no need to worry about how the Dow MDI will be on the market. After all, time is long, we have plenty of time to think and deal with.

MDI market in the first half of June market trend five five open, supplier strategy and market mentality is the key

Dow’s MDI has to wait until the second half of June to have more information to implement, so now we can not consider. June MDI suppliers will be listed on the listing price will support the market, the supply policy will also support the market, then the dealers riding tiger, I believe we do not have low-cost piling space and power. Then the most secure way is to stabilize the market active shipments, after all, traders and downstream users are in a low level of inventory, just need to support the market to move forward.

Private investor cut-loss while Institutional opportunistic go short

Over the past three weeks, the domestic commodity market has plummeted, the black plate led the trend shocking, coking coal, coke, steel, iron ore and other products in the past three trading days across the board refresh the new low of 2017. On the black products, the midline prospects exist “Mishap”, may trend differentiation.

This year’s March-May plummeted in the trend, iron ore to lead the decline, the Dalian Futures Exchange iron ore main contract since mid-March highs fell to a week this week, a range of 35.6%; rebar futures The main contract since mid-March high point so far the rate of return is just 20%; coking coal from the end of March 1900 yuan / ton higher than the fall of the rate of even better, 21.4%.

Guangzhou Daily reporter surveyed in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the two markets, found that now adhere to the “do” the retail is now running out, and the end of April, most retail still think that black products have “play”. Now part of the retail has been “flesh” out, some retail investors have begun to “short.” The Shenzhen futures brokerage platform statistics show that its investment in black products, the mainstream institutions, corporate investors positions also decreased by 30% over the same period in April, holding wait and see and opportunistic short, become the current attitude of these investors.

Guangzhou Daily reporter learned that the recent black prices caused by the collapse of the main reasons for the following three. First, the off-season demand is not busy than in previous years. Is still in the 3 to 5 months of the traditional off-season, in addition to building materials spiral inventory digestion is still possible, plate type of digestion is not satisfactory, short-term to the stock pressure. Second, iron ore stocks are at historically high levels. As of the end of April, the main port iron ore stocks reached 131.95 million tons. Third, the technical callback pressure, the organization “short” will greater than “do more” will. 2016 years since February 2017, the black plate for 20 consecutive months soared, the majority of black varieties of the cumulative increase over 50%, profit to form a lot of institutional options.

Steel hockey has ended

Late investment and more “short” ideas

Only from a technical point of view, the current trend of bulk commodity crash, so far did not stop, although the individual species appeared signs of bottoming, but the whole still do not know when the end is the end. Professionals advise investors to be cautious “bargain-hunting”.

Huatai futures (Guangzhou) Zhang Sheng analysis that: the possibility of differentiation of large commodity market outlook, black product plate itself will be differentiated. The prospect of declining varieties of iron ore is the most pessimistic, because iron ore is an international product, subject to the domestic supply side of the structural reform of the best influence of the smallest, the global high inventory will restrict its rebound; rebar up to 1 year and a half “Honeymoon period” to May this year is limited, has ended, the property market regulation overweight, will offset the supply side of the structural reform brought about by the promotion, tend to midline low consolidation, the proposed investors to short thinking; For coking coal, coke products, after the crash may be the first to rebound, investors may wish to bargain hunters.

In recent years, there are some companies really want to enhance corporate profit margins by pesticides, therefore also put a lot of manpower and resources. Admittedly, some companies deliberately create high-profile publicity products, to create products as a gimmick, take their own hype. This part of the business practice is questionable.

Earlier this year, several new pesticides on the Internet is very hot interest, so in the Institute website a lot, the results are not found the drug registration information. So I guess this several new drugs, not through the safety evaluation, currently only trial stage. So the site can not find drug registration information, there is no way of knowing the structure of new compounds.

Why should we pay attention to the structure of compounds? Because some pesticide enterprises, just a group of foreign patent products do some fine-tuning, such as methyl ethyl replaced, it may be put into methyl or ethyl isobutyl, then transformed into a new product to sell, or a new component called under the guise of bound pesticide retailers and other products.
The structure changes of value?. You want to ah, only the new tuning group, structure activity might be better than the original product, but as long as the use of quantity increase, the effect is not bad to where. But compared to the high profits of patent products and similar control target specific, this cost can be ignored.

on Wednesday, China’s sulphur market in a narrow market rise, outside the tender price is higher, boosting the domestic market mentality, holding the goods were optimistic, pushing up the market of domestic sulfur atmosphere.

In February 14th, Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery 700 tons output near the solid sulfur price in 870 yuan / ton, the liquid sulfur price in 820 yuan / ton, the solid sulfur loading costs 8 yuan, 20 yuan fare with liquid sulfur. Sinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical production capacity of 130 thousand tons, sulfur price, solid sulfur price in 830 yuan / ton, the liquid sulfur price in 780 yuan / ton, sulfur containing 12 yuan fare, sulfur noinstalling fare, the normal monthly production of 7000 tons of liquid, the main supply area of Jiangsu sulfuric acid factory.

The ports, ports of the Yangtze River downstream plant procurement is not much, holding the goods to wait, bulk particles reference price 910-915 yuan / ton; Qingdao port inventory 70 thousand tons of sulfur, currently holding the goods were optimistic, South Korea block powder reference price of 830 yuan / ton, pushing up the market atmosphere thick. The Lantern Festival market rebound, stable domestic refinery shipments, to narrow the main sulfur price increase, later need to focus on the downstream procurement.

his week potassium chloride market prices will remain stable trend, the potassium chloride market mainstream offer price at 1944 yuan / ton.

quotations analysis

Product: this week the potassium chloride market prices remain strong, the overall market performance is relatively light, although the emergence of downstream order phenomenon, but a wait-and-see attitude are not new single turnover. The shipment of domestic potassium eased slightly, various regions have different degrees of volume, Saline Lake group 60% station grain price in 1970 yuan / ton. The port, in the absence of demand to support the case, some traders realized psychological enhancement, resulting in prices slightly loose, 62% White Russian basic potassium in 2050-2080 yuan / ton, 60% Russian red potassium prices in 1960-1980 yuan / ton, a single on the actual.

Downstream industry chain: fertilizer plant devices continue to back production, the manufacturer of the whole device starts into about 5. The market demand gradually started, the market order enthusiasm slowly improved, operation support strong market to a certain extent.

Market forecast

At present, the major port dealer sales release, the venue can sell sufficient supply. Is expected in the short term price of potassium chloride will be relaxed.

From the disk, because the current demand in the doldrums, plastic spot and futures prices are weak, North China recent spot price has dropped to 10000 yuan / ton, but the price drop but is conducive to traders and downstream enterprises to actively promote material delivery, demand.

Sinopec is expected to gradually digest inventory pressure

During the Spring Festival, the domestic petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, the week of February 3rd to a peak of polyethylene inventory accumulation, petrochemical stocks reached 980 thousand tons, an increase of 67%; port inventories increased 48%; total inventories increased 44.7%. The Spring Festival holiday spot market most closed, suspend the accumulation of a large number of stock circulation cause. At the same time, January polyethylene imports increase, port cargo export difficulties and other factors also lead to a substantial increase in the port inventory, part ofport full phenomenon.

Although the short-term polyethylene stocks sharply accumulation, but not too much pressure.

First, inventory accumulation is mainly affected by the effect of the Spring Festival, the market has long been expected, so the pressure on prices is not too large;

Second, after the first working day of the peak of 980 thousand tons of petrochemical stocks have slowly fall in;

Third, the recent Petrochemical stocks relatively the same period in three years is not high, the same period of 2014 inventory 1 million 150 thousand tons, the same period of 2015 inventory 950 thousand tons, inventory 940 thousand tons over the same period in 2016. Therefore, the short term, high inventory will have a certain pressure on the market, but the overall pressure is not too large. Is expected to accumulate 2 months late during the Spring Festival will gradually digest inventory, the possibility of PE price rebound.

In summary, the fundamentals of plastic quietly began from “no” to “Thailand” change, plastic prices are expected to rebound.

But after the southern mountain area of farmland in silence, looking around, there is no shelter grass green rice production, years of accumulated under the agricultural packaging waste pollution shocking. Ditch, pesticide bottles scattered messy, ridge next to no plastic tray burn free packing, wind projections, a small pile of herbicide bag was Roll Heaven, the air floated strange smell.

“A year grain seedling using County tens of millions of millions of bags, pesticide bottles, many are thrown in the fields, become a ‘bomb’ pollution!” recently, “Economic Reference News” in an interview with reporters in Hunan and other major agricultural province, many cadres and the masses, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, seedling such as agricultural new varieties to improve agricultural production efficiency emerge in an endless stream, at the same time, also increased the amount of agricultural packaging waste. The recovery system is not perfect, such as the old seedling tray, pesticide bottles, bags and other pesticides was largely abandoned in the fields, resulting in farmland pollution is becoming more complex, not all old waste, pollution and new arrival, makes the heart sick.

To improve the efficiency of agricultural upgrade

When the Southern farmers plowing agricultural reserve stage, with Hunan County of Hengyang agricultural supply, large grain of Liu Cuiqing believes that the past agricultural variety, supply shortages often, these problems are now gone for ever, ample supply of agricultural means of production, and agricultural upgrade, new varieties are more and more, brings convenience to agricultural production.

He said that with the seedling as an example, before or in the fields of direct seeding, either in nursery seedlings after transplanting to field in manual transplanting. Direct sowing while saving time and labor, but not a strong seedlings, encountered “unusually cold spell” cold dew wind “, will lead to a large area of dead seedlings. Nursery seedlings can improve the survival rate of seedlings, but the method is too traditional, time-consuming and laborious. In recent years, the tray is popularized, seedling raising process less cumbersome, seedling quality is guaranteed, the survival rate is greatly improved, also convenient for transplanting and throwing, save a lot of manpower.

Compared with the past, pesticide varieties are more and more. In the city of Xiangtan agricultural market, dealer Peng Jianlai said vividly before pesticide varieties, the toxicity is too large, the idea is similar to the farmers’ pesticide insecticide would rather kill one thousand, you can not let go of a”. In recent years, the wrong idea gradually reversed, according to the types of diseases and insect pests, pesticides are generally divided into a subdivision, insecticides, fungicides, acaricides, nematicides, rodenticides, defoliants, herbicides, plant growth regulators and other categories.

Peng Jianlai told reporters, each class consists of many types of pesticides, pesticides now common on the market about 100 kinds of pesticides, pesticide refinement, farmers are more targeted, more efficient and less pesticide, pesticide residues.

With all kinds of economic crop acreage increased, the plastic film is also a large number of entering the field of agricultural production, some become plastic, some become greenhouse film, popular with farmers welcome. Xiangtan County farmers Hu Xiaocheng told reporters that the film can maintain soil moisture, improve soil temperature, prevent pests and microorganisms can grow crops, in season vegetables, from the economic point of view, these bring a good agricultural economic accounts.

The old did not go to the new sewage and sewage

Analysis January 23rd Shandong Yankuang acetic

anhydride unit normal, manufacturers have sales, prices for 5000 yuan / ton.

India this week outside castor oil prices, New Year approaching, domestic castor oil market in general, sales line, inventory is low, some manufacturers to stop production holiday, castor oil price stability. Castor oil is quoted in the mainstream 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

In January 20th, the normal operation of Inner Mongolia Tianrun castor Development Co. Ltd. India industrial production device, castor oil’s price for 11500 yuan / ton (including tax), normal construction, sales, price stability. Zibo Zhoucun Ming Tung Chemical castor oil price stability, industrial grade castor oil (grade one) ex factory price of 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), the weak market demand, sales, inventory amount. Nanjing Qianyue chemical refining level of castor oil price stability, price is 11000 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for castor oil is also OK, general sales. Wenshui the Yellow River County Oil Company Limited industrial grade refined castor oil price is 11300 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, price stability. Xinji City Han Sen plant oil, castor oil prices remain stable, the price of a product of refined net 11600 yuan / ton, factory sales, less inventory, normal production.

This week the castor oil market price stability, recently domestic castor oil manufacturers sales line, market demand, WaiPan prices rise, the exchange rate, but the year is approaching, the majority of manufacturers to wait and see, the market outlook is expected to price stability of castor oil.

Finance it is understood that the recent domestic n-butanol market as a whole to discuss the atmosphere more active, cost pressures will increase and some manufacturers, downstream factories before stocking will slightly better, the market turnover improved.

In January 19th the domestic n-butanol market overview:

The domestic market a slight increase in butanol, today the mainstream manufacturers generally increase 100 yuan / ton.

Mainstream market in Shandong 6100-6200 yuan / ton.

At the mainstream market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang plate 6300-6400 yuan / ton.

Shandong lihuayi n-butanol products offer temporary stability, 6000-6100 yuan / ton; the plant annual production capacity of 85 thousand tons, a device operating rate of 6 percent, low inventory.

Market summary: overall ample supply at present. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market is expected to the atmosphere will gradually fade, the downstream movement of raw materials continue to wait and see.