First, the price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the cobalt market fluctuated in August, and the cobalt price fell in the shock. As of August 31, the price of cobalt was 48,6875.00 yuan / ton, compared with 498,166.66 yuan / ton of cobalt at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt rose by 2.27%, up 13.53% over the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product aspect

In August, the average price of domestic and international metal cobalt market fell. The price of cobalt sheet (content ≥99.8%) of Wuxi Stainless Steel Trading Center fell. As of August 31, the price of cobalt was 466,000-496,000 yuan/ton, compared with the price of 485000-518000 yuan/ton at the beginning of August, and the price dropped by 20,000 yuan/ton. The spot cobalt offer in the London LEM market fell from $66,750-672,050/ton at the beginning of August to $64,000-$64,500/ton at the end of August, and the cobalt price fell by $2,750/ton in August. Overall, the price of cobalt in the market fluctuated and fell in August. Both domestic and international cobalt prices fell, and the price of cobalt was weak. However, compared with the previous period, the decline in August has decreased. The cobalt price tends to be stable.

Data statistics

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed 90,000 and 84,000 respectively, an increase of 53.6% and 47.7% over the same period of the previous year. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 504,000 and 496,000, respectively, an increase of 85% and 97.1% over the same period of the previous year. The output of new energy vehicles in July increased compared with that in June, but the sales volume was basically maintained. The performance of new energy vehicles is still strong, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with the previous period. The slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicles has caused the market to lower the demand for cobalt and affect the rise in cobalt prices.

Policies and regulations

The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Transport issued the Notice on the Preferential Policies for the Promotion of Vehicle and Vessel Taxes for Energy-Saving New Energy Vehicles and Vessels (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), which proposes that the new energy vehicles and vessels are exempt from vehicle and vessel tax. . The exemption of the vehicle and vessel tax has promoted the accelerated development of new energy vehicles and ships, and has played a certain role in promoting the demand for cobalt in the market. The policy is difficult to change the weakness of the supply and demand fundamentals, and the cobalt price has not shown signs of rebounding.

Third, the outlook outlook

In August, the cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted, it was difficult to change the downward trend of cobalt prices, but the overall decline in cobalt prices in August was slower than the previous period. Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business community, believes that the national policy was favorable in August, and the new energy vehicles and ships were exempted from the vehicle and vessel tax, which objectively promoted the demand and rise of the cobalt market, ensured the stability of the cobalt price, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles must be To a certain extent, the demand for cobalt is maintained, and metallic cobalt performs well at the demand side. However, affected by the Sino-US trade war, the growth of the macroeconomic environment slowed down, and the economic slowdown affected the automobile industry. The new energy automobile industry dragged down the growth, which indirectly affected the demand of the cobalt market and limited the strength and speed of the rebound of cobalt prices. The city has not shown signs of a rebound. It is predicted that the price of cobalt in the market will fluctuate and adjust, and the price of cobalt will still fall in the short term. However, with the steady development of new energy vehicles, the risk of Congo’s gold supply side has increased. It is difficult to have a large room for decline in cobalt prices in the near future.

On August 28th, the PX Commodity Index was 66.60, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 34.96% from the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 46.21% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of paraxylene rose slightly. The equipment was repaired by Pengzhou Petrochemical. The Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%. The Tenglong aromatic hydrocarbon plant has been in the parking. The other devices are temporarily stable and the domestic p-xylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 28, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased sharply by US$54/ton, and the closing price was US$1305-1307/ton FOB Korea and US$1324-1326/ton CFR China. US WTI crude oil futures market price fell in October, reported 68.53 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 0.34 US dollars, Brent crude oil October futures prices fell to 75.95 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.26 US dollars, upstream raw material prices fell slightly, but recently The textile industry rose and the PX market price rose slightly. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the 28th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 81.6%, the PTA price was sharply higher, and the average price in East China was 9300-9350 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-lifting, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will rise slightly in the later period.

Market review

The price of methylene chloride rose this week. According to business data, the average price of dichloromethane at the beginning of the week was 4,241 yuan/ton, and the average price of the weekend was 4,343 yuan/ton. The price was raised by 2.40%.

Market analysis

Products: This week, the methylene chloride market was active in trading, manufacturers were inspected one after another, and methylene chloride was in short supply, and prices continued to rise. This week, Dongying Jinmao Aluminum Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 80,000 tons of methylene chloride plant, which has been parked; Luxi Chemical Group’s methylene chloride plant started at 50%; Jiangsu Li Culture & Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 160,000 tons of methylene chloride plant 8 Overhaul for 15 days on the 15th to the 15th. The regional price difference of methylene chloride is large, including 4270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,850 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 4,300 yuan/ton in Jiangxi, and 4,100 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. Among them, Zhejiang Suihua fluorine chemical dichloride price 4100 yuan / ton, Jiangsu science and culture workers dichloromethane 4850 yuan / ton, Dongying Jinmao aluminum industry dichloromethane parking, Dongying Shuochi chemical dichloromethane distribution price 4270 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinling Chemical Co., Ltd. has 4,270 yuan/ton of dichloromethane, and Jiangxi Li Culture has 4,300 yuan/ton of dichloromethane.

Industry chain: upstream natural gas: At present, environmental protection requirements are stricter, actively constructing a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, fully promoting the elimination of clean energy, environmental protection pressure, “coal to gas” stimulates the rapid growth of natural gas demand, not in the off-season. Light, LNG plant shipments are better, liquid level is gradually reduced, coupled with the recent strong gas restrictions in the Northwest, LNG prices are at a high level. Due to the high price of LNG, the demand is reduced, the market mentality is not good, the downstream receiving goods are relatively weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand causes prices to start to fall. Downstream refrigerants: The recent high temperatures have led to a burst of demand for air-conditioning installations, and have also contributed to a surge in sales of refrigerant products. Products such as R22, R32, R134a, and R410A continue to increase in market prices.

Market outlook

The business community’s methylene chloride analyst believes that the current methylene chloride market starts to decline, and there are manufacturers in August to repair, plus downstream demand is better, and prices are expected to continue to rise next week.

On August 13, the PX Commodity Index was 66.40, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 35.16% from the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 45.77% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene remained at 8,300 yuan/ton, the on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant was started at 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is in normal supply. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 10, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased by US$6/ton, and the closing price was 1115.5-1117.5 USD/ton FOB Korea and 1134.5-1136.5 USD/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil September futures market price fell 43 cents to close at 67.20 US dollars per barrel. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the 10th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 81%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price of the East China region was 7650-7700 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-lifting, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will remain high in the later period.

First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of August 7, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,982 yuan / ton, the overall market conditions rose sharply, the price rose 31.27% over the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. Futures continued to rise, driving the spot to rise. Today, the ports and the mainland are all rising, ranging from 50-240 yuan/ton. The southwest and northeast are temporarily stable, waiting for the new price. The new price in the northwest rose by 200 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton, focusing on the transmission to the mainland consumer market. On August 7, Zhengshang’s main contract for methanol futures, MA1809, fluctuated at a high level in the day, and closed at 3,237, up 12, with a turnover of 1.064 million hands and a reduction of 86,836 contracts.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: The raw material methanol market has risen sharply, the cost is better than the formaldehyde support, and the formaldehyde price has risen accordingly; the demand for downstream plates and other low seasons is more than just purchase. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market rose sharply at the beginning of the week. Due to the company’s downsizing and maintenance news, the spot shortage in the market. Manufacturers export more, ship, long-term and pre-order orders. Therefore, the supplier’s offer has been continuously raised. Dimethyl ether: Due to the sharp increase in the trend of raw material methanol, the overall price trend of the domestic DME market continued to rise in the near future.

Freight reference: domestic methanol freight finishing, the Inner Mongolia north line to Lubei freight reference 250-290 yuan / ton, slightly higher; south line to Lubei freight 190-240 yuan / ton; Shanxi to Lubei 120-160 Yuan / ton, slightly higher; Guanzhong to Lubei freight 90-130 yuan / ton; Xinjiang to Lubei reference 680 yuan / ton.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: On the positive side, under the influence of environmental protection, Shanxi and North Jiangsu coke oven gas methanol projects are still affected; futures gaps open higher, sharply higher, driving the spot higher; Russia’s methanol plant is shut down, international supply is reduced; Northwest The price of the guide will be raised to 2,550 yuan / ton, which will drive the surrounding market. . For the bearish side, the overall operation of the olefin plant is currently maintained at a low level; the MTO of Lianyungang is shut down for maintenance; the olefin load in Shandong is reduced to 60%, which is unfavorable for methanol digestion; the downstream traditional demand is low season, the overall low level is started, and the MTBE and East China acetic acid are repaired. The methanol digestion is limited; the factory in the northwestern Inner Mongolia will be gradually restarted, the resources will be supplied or enlarged; some methanol plants in northern Jiangsu will be restarted, and the supply of resources in the area will be enlarged. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that in the short-term market, as the main production area equipment gradually recovers, the resources supply or amplification, but some manufacturers overhaul news, so the downstream demand is not good, the methanol market is expected to be weak and dominated. .

December 18, the European Region O-xylene market outside the price of temporary stability, external offer 750.00 USD/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, compared to December 15 outside the offer of 750.00 U.S. dollars/ton, price stability.

December 18, the Asian market for MTBE was closed at USD 689.5/ton, down 3.5 USD/ton in the previous session; the MTBE market in northwest Europe closed at 665.25 USD/ton, falling 3 USD/ton in the previous trading day; FOB F.O.B. US $692.889 USD/ton Rose 2.982 USD/ton from the previous session.

In 2017, China’s total production capacity of bisphenol A was 1.44 million tons / year, with no additional capacity increase. But for the first three quarters, as shown below, this year, a single bisphenol A domestic supply were higher than the level of the same period last year. Although the third quarter of the domestic bisphenol A device maintenance is more concentrated, but compared with the same period last year, the output is still showing a significant increase. It is calculated that the third quarter of domestic supply of bisphenol A is about 268,000 tons, an increase of 68,000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 34%.

From the market point of view, the third quarter of this year, the domestic trend of bisphenol A compared with the same period last year also performed differently. Can be seen from the figure below, the third quarter of last year, domestic bisphenol A market showed a gradual upward trend, and this year did not appear obvious rally, the market as a whole within a narrow range of shocks. This year the main downstream epoxy resin enterprises affected by environmental protection, safety supervision factors obvious, so even in the domestic bisphenol A factory maintenance is more concentrated under the premise of the market fundamentals of the game still let the market supply side to prevail.

It is noteworthy that the current mainstream in east China bisphenol A market prices compared with the same period last year coincidence, the market reference talks in 9450-9500 yuan / ton. And follow-up market trends and whether to continue with last year, there are still many uncertainties. Looking ahead, the domestic bisphenol A market will continue to focus on supply and demand side.

From the supply side, the fourth quarter of the domestic bisphenol A unit maintenance program has ended, the domestic factory will maintain a relatively stable start level. And in October the Korean part of the bisphenol A plant planned parking maintenance, the domestic bisphenol A spot is expected to reduce the market, the overall spot resources will maintain a relatively stable state, there is no sharp decline in the expected. From the downstream demand, the epoxy resin, the demand for follow-up has become the norm of this year’s normal, followed by environmental protection efforts will not be reduced, combined with the “eighteen” held or will continue to affect the North China epoxy resin start, So the subsequent demand for resin is expected to maintain the current level or in the existing level of slightly just need to increase the amount of this year, the development of epoxy resin business is difficult to understand the reality we should learn rational, dialectical Of the treatment. For another downstream PC, Yantai Wanhua 70,000 tons / year PC device can be put into operation is bound to become the fourth quarter of the downstream demand for bisphenol A focus, if the device started smoothly, I believe for the follow-up bisphenol A market demand and the majority The mentality of the people will inject a needle “tonic”! From the raw material point of view, compared to last year, this year the raw material phenol ketone for the impact of bisphenol A has been weakened, the trend of late phenol also need to pay attention to the supply and demand side with.

US media said the US Department of Energy announced a pilot project to investigate the US domestic rare earth resources. The move was at least welcomed by a US congressman.

According to the Voice of America website June 20 reported that rare earth resources are elements of the periodic table looks very inconspicuous elements, but for electronic manufacturing, military equipment and some medical care is essential.

According to Pennsylvania’s Republican Congressman Lu Balletta, the US supply of rare earth resources, 100% from China.

The House of Representatives said that China’s rare earth reserves ranks first in the world. These elements, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium and cerium, can be extracted in a variety of ways, including the remaining material from coal mining.

The US Department of Energy said it would invest $ 6.9 million to study the way to extract rare earths and produce these ingredients in the United States.

Balletta said that one of the facilities under construction was near Jamaica’s Jedo Coal Mine in Hazleton, Pennsylvania.

Other locations of interest to the DOE project include Albany, Georgia, Tuscarusa, Alabama, and Bruffield at the junction of Virginia and West Virginia.

President Barleta said the project was a matter of national security in the United States. If the United States can develop its own rare earth elements, military and medical departments do not need to rely on China.

In the January-February big … from 2 to 5 months of the fall … and then known as the Jedi fight back in May, so that players have become increasingly difficult to figure out the pace of polymerization MDI market price changes. I believe everyone on the black stock market in 2016 memories, especially in August to September domestic black material market prices rose 8400 yuan / ton. Recent domestic MDI market price increases compared with the 2016 years, there is nothing more than that.

The author in the afternoon of May 8 has been found in the black material market, the spot is not easy to find, because I continued to fall sharply due to the impact of panic mentality, and did not expect the market will rebound, it is not caused by this phenomenon Attention. The next two weeks, the domestic market price of black material into the sky soaring model, Shanghai cargo from 19500 yuan / ton up to 22,500 yuan / ton, up to 3,000 yuan / ton. In this first Congratulations to you to buy the goods friends, you in the award, and congratulations to make a fortune!

In the past 2017 May, the feelings of the black material colleagues is difficult to calm down. Everyone in the process of grasping the black material in the process of varying degrees of Taro behavior, that is, a large number of low-cost early Paohuo, rising trend in a timely manner a large number of short covering, the price rise and not dare to purchase high prices and low-priced futures, Hearty and a small amount of catch a little goods, do not know which type you belong to.

Recalling the May 2017 black material market and 2016 in August and September 2016 and December 2017 – February 2017, three of the reasons for the rise in black material prices are different, the market behavior is different.

First, the number of imported MDI continued to shrink, the domestic market is difficult to find the spot

March 2, 2017, South Korea Kumho Mitsui M200 transaction price of 2900 US dollars / ton in the vicinity, equivalent to 25,000 yuan / ton. Then, the domestic MDI market prices into the downward trend, until the beginning of May the domestic M200 market price fell to 19,600 yuan / ton. In other words, after December 2016, the procurement of MDI has been all the fall.

So the brutal decline in the atmosphere, leading to the import of Korean goods read was denied. At the same time, near the stage of Korea Kumho Mitsui MDI device operating rate of only five percent, just to meet their own domestic market demand, has no time to take into account the export to the Chinese market. During this period, China only a very small number of imported traders in order to maintain relations of cooperation, a small amount of imports of teeth, but also in advance of the way to reduce the loss of pre-sale expectations.

Second, the trend of prices, although crazy, hoard goods behavior has been cautious

Although the domestic polymer MDI market conditions are always thunderbolt as the trend of rising, but the recent stage of the traders and downstream users have not so crazy. One was bitten by the snake for three years afraid of the rope ah, especially in January 2017 before the Spring Festival crazy stockpile was hurt too deep.

The essence of price increases is due to the supply of aggregated MDI suppliers, coupled with the scarcity of social stock, highlights the illusion that has just led to short supply.

Downstream users after a number of dealers and traders after the goods, found that the market is not easy to find the spot MDI polymerization. And dealers and traders found that the recent purchase of goods downstream customers suddenly more, so have the price and reluctant to sell the phenomenon. During this period, the polymerization of MDI suppliers to extend the delivery time, and another phenomenon is not reported closed, exacerbate the status of tight supply. Now think about it, may be so much demand, contact a lot of dealers and traders, resulting in this time the market misunderstanding it. In the offer quickly pulled up and the momentum of the momentum, driven by the domestic polymerization MDI market prices ushered in a sharp rise in the trend.

However, the downstream users just need to be limited, combined with prudent stockpile behavior, there is no big outbreak of the phenomenon of orders, there is no price spike behavior. Overall, the demand in May tepid, can only say that slightly better than March and April only.

Third, support is still there, pay close attention to supplier trends

Beginning this week, the domestic polymer MDI market supply situation will be eased

This week and last week, the purchase of MDI futures will be in the May 22 before and after the arrival of goods, in addition to delivery of pre-sale part of the spot began to actively sell. Although the overall number is not too much, but also basically meet the current customers just need and a small amount of hoard goods needs. The polymerization of MDI traders in the price before the purchase of 44V20 to 20000-20400 yuan / ton, PM200 for the 201500-21700 yuan / ton, and now the spot price in the market were 22,500 yuan / ton and 23,000 yuan / ton, profit Has been very impressive, continue to imagine the space has been insufficient, profit trailer competing shipments, will suppress the market price tends to be stable. With the aggregation of MDI manufacturers announced in June the price policy release date approaching, indicating that the dealers will soon be able to pre-sale and delivery of June supply.

The pilot price of each MDI supplier will support the market in June

This weekend, to Wanhua as the representative of the MDI suppliers will be announced in June listing price and supply policy. Old rules, we come to look at what will be implemented in June price, discount supply of a price policy should be unexpected. At present, the domestic polymer MDI market after a sharp rebound, Wanhua spot transaction price concentrated in 23,000 yuan / ton, due to the listing in May a price of 23,000 yuan / ton, so with the May market rebound trend, Wanhua June MDI listing Settlement price will rise.

So the question came, how much is the listing price rise in June? I think at least up to 1,000 yuan / ton, million in June MDI listing price will reach at least 24,000 yuan / ton, then the price of its dealer costs will be flat with the current market price. If the listing price is less than or equal to 24,000 yuan / ton, is undoubtedly to the market poured a pot of cold water, lack of support for the market mentality, basically not likely to occur; 24500-25000 yuan / ton almost no more moderate; 25,500 yuan / ton on some too much.

Dharma Cliff Sword, Dow’s Polymer MDI what time to enter China

According to foreign media reports, Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year of polymer MDI device has been successfully put into operation, the test material has been shipped to Europe.

According to Dow Asia Pacific official news, from the Saudi MDI originally planned to arrive in China in June, is delayed until July, but the current time is uncertain, the message level of caution.

According to the author of roadside news reported that the number of Dow MD from Saudi Arabia is very large, in addition to meet the needs of China’s direct supply to customers, there will be a large number of goods supply dealer channels. It is said that Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year MDI device all produce polymer MDI, we have reason to believe that the quality of Dow Aggregate MDI will compete with Wanhua, the price will compete in Shanghai cargo. At present, Dow has not completely want to understand how so many goods in the Chinese market to play.

In the current market environment, the polymerization of MDI suppliers for the control of the market, only to control the supply of goods.

June MDI market is more embarrassing, Dow polymerization MDI large number of access to the Chinese market, and Wanhua, Bayer, BASF and other suppliers to compete. In the absence of a timetable, there is no need to worry about how the Dow MDI will be on the market. After all, time is long, we have plenty of time to think and deal with.

MDI market in the first half of June market trend five five open, supplier strategy and market mentality is the key

Dow’s MDI has to wait until the second half of June to have more information to implement, so now we can not consider. June MDI suppliers will be listed on the listing price will support the market, the supply policy will also support the market, then the dealers riding tiger, I believe we do not have low-cost piling space and power. Then the most secure way is to stabilize the market active shipments, after all, traders and downstream users are in a low level of inventory, just need to support the market to move forward.