Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market first fell and then stabilized in January, and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 3533 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it fell to about 3183 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.91%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850-2950/ton; in Shandong is about 3100-3200 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2650 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3150-3250 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3350 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 32.86% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This month, due to the downstream acetate, vinyl acetate Market and other industries started to slump, the demand for acetic acid is weak, due to the approaching Spring Festival holidays, domestic acetic acid enterprises mostly to reduce storage pressure and low-cost shipments, the export market negotiations are flat, many factors lead to domestic acetic acid prices continue to fall; near the end of the month, due to long-term enterprise warehousing and some enterprise overhaul and other factors, acetic acid goods. Source tension and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stocks and other factors, on-site quotations began to warm up. In terms of start-up, Longyu 400,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, Yima 250,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, and Yangtze 400,000 tons/year plant in Nanjing was repaired at the beginning of the month. So far, Soap 1.2 million tons/year plant in Jiangsu Province has reduced its load, and the overall start-up rate is about 86%.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the methanol market in the first ten days of this month under the drive of pre-season inventory, the overall warehousing rhythm is still acceptable, northwest, Shandong and central China mainland homeopathy in varying degrees slightly increased; but in the second ten days, with the high inventory of terminal raw materials in Shandong and Huazhong consumer markets, downstream enthusiasm gradually slowed down, methanol quoted 2188 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and methanol price 2212 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is still relatively low this week. Traders are cautious in purchasing and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream. The price fluctuation in the month is 7.24%, up 14.51% compared with the same period last year.

International: This month, the North American acetic acid market was affected by demand, and continued to decline in the month, now about 600 US dollars/ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, falling first and then rising in the month, and the current quotation is 390-440 US dollars/ton; the European acetic acid market fell sharply in the month, about 705 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.

Acetic acid analysts of business associations expect that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future, with an upward trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 29, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2212 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was running steadily.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is running steadily, and the port is slightly down with futures. However, some operators have entered a semi-holiday state. In addition, the upstream stocks are basically over. New orders are limited and most of them are on the lookout. Shandong, North China and Huazhong in the Mainland are more stable, with partial contract execution being the main factor; the new price in Northwest China is not yet clear. It is worth mentioning that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holidays, transportation capacity has further tightened, and freight prices have also increased. This factor will once again suppress upstream factories and pay attention to the implementation of local new prices. In addition, part of the atmosphere in Sichuan and Chongqing has been restarted/planned to restart, and MTO in Zhejiang has also been restored in advance. However, due to the weakness of the current product fundamentals and the increasingly strong influence of holidays on the market trading atmosphere, the above factors should be paid close attention to the impact of the substantive fermentation of the market or postponed to the end of the festival.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: With the approaching of the Spring Festival, most of the local formaldehyde factories in Linyi have stopped working and withdrawn from the market, and the market turnover is light; the raw material methanol finishing has limited boost to formaldehyde, subject to the downstream downturn demand, Shandong formaldehyde light finishing mainly. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is steadily rising. Most enterprises are short of stock, so the offer is firm. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and there are still some short-term stocks in some areas, but they will gradually decrease within a week. Long-distance transportation capacity gradually vacation, limited vehicles. Dimethyl ether: The enthusiasm of end users to enter the market gradually weakens, sellers continue to rise insufficiently, the overall price gradually tends to be rational, the recent domestic trend of dimethyl ether or will continue to collate horizontally.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, transportation: near the Spring Festival holidays, the transportation capacity situation in various parts of the country is becoming tighter, which will normally lead to relatively high freight rates and support the cost of arrival at consumer sites; olefins: the current price of methanol is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still possible, some shutdown projects are expected to strengthen, Xingxing 600,000 tons MTO has been put into operation, and the demand for raw material methanol Quantification or amplification. Attention should be paid to MTO start-up action. On the negative side, demand: near the Spring Festival holidays, most of the stocks in the middle and lower reaches have ended, some traders have withdrawn from the market one after another, the delivery atmosphere continues to weaken, and the new single negotiations are limited; ports: recent arrivals of ships are relatively concentrated, port inventory is still accumulating, need to pay close attention to the outflow situation; futures: the futures market has fallen sharply, and the focus of spot delivery of port paper has fallen to varying degrees. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.

Price Trend
According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of January 22, the average price of domestic BDO market was 10,087 yuan/ton, which was 9.47% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is weak downward. The downstream demand is weak, the market fundamentals are general, the mindset of the traders is weak, some traders have closed the market, the atmosphere of market negotiations on the eve of the Spring Festival is light, and the follow-up is not good. It is expected that the short-term BDO market will still be dominated by weak consolidation. In terms of price, the mainstream offer in East China and North China is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the real unit price is 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and the barreler negotiates 10300-10500 yuan/ton. South China offers 9600-10000 yuan/ton, real unit price 9300-9600 yuan/ton, barreler bargaining price 10300-10600 yuan/ton.

On the market side, the BDO market in North China declined slightly. The overall fluctuation of market supply and demand is not large, downstream purchasing intention is near the low end, high interest in receiving goods is limited, sellers’quotations are stable, merchants replenish goods on demand, and large orders are limited. The BDO market in East China declined narrowly. Active inquiries downstream less, more to maintain just need to take goods, factory shipments are not smooth to make more concessions, buy more to suppress, on-site high-end source shipments are not smooth, negotiations tend to be low. The market of BDO in South China is weak. Downstream still maintained on-demand delivery, on-site actual single volume is general, middlemen tend to low prices and fast delivery, negotiation interval continues to decline.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, the calcium carbide Market in Northeast China has a steady trend. The downstream enterprise purchases the first-class carbide and delivers it at the price of 3000-3025 yuan/ton. The arrival of goods in this area is still acceptable, most of them are ready to use and pick up, and they are more wait-and-see mindset.

3. Future Market Forecast

Just need to deal with the main; downstream inadequate start-up, low production and marketing. Business agency BDO analysts predict that short-term weak operation of the BDO market is dominant.

Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that due to cold winter weather and geological conditions, Russia could not cut production too quickly, according to oil and gas news reports. Novak reiterated Moscow’s commitment to stick to the new OPEC + agreement and gradually reduce production.

Novak pointed out that Russia will strive to cut oil production faster.

A few days ago, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said that Russia’s production cuts were “slower than I hoped”.

“Russia has started, slower than I hoped, but they have started, and I believe they will catch up and make a positive contribution to rebalancing the market as they did in 2017,” al-Falih told CNBC on Sunday.

Under the new OPEC+agreement, Russia will cut its crude oil production by 228,000 barrels a day within six months from January 1, 2019, and may assess it in April.

After agreeing in December last year, Novak said that Russian oil companies would cut production in the first quarter of 2019.

Novak has said that as part of the OPEC+New Agreement, Russia plans to cut oil production by 50,000 barrels to 60,000 barrels a day in January, and will not directly reduce production by 228,000 barrels at the beginning of the agreement. Novak said Russia has drafted a timetable to determine how much oil production Russia will cut monthly before reaching the OPEC/non-OPEC reduction ratio. Novak reiterated Moscow’s position that Russia’s output cuts would be gradual, just as the previous agreements reached between OPEC and Russia’s non-OPEC members.

Novak said on Friday that Russia has cut its output by about 30,000 barrels a day compared with the October cut benchmark and still intends to achieve 50,000 barrels a day by the end of this month.

Today, Novak told the Russian news agency Agence Novosti that he would meet with al-Falih at next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss joint projects, cooperation and the implementation of the OPEC+agreement.

The Indian phenol market closed stable on January 18, with CIF prices ranging from $1013 to $1016 per ton.

On January 18, the phenol Market in the U.S. Gulf closed steadily with the latest offer of $1088-1108 per ton FOB in the U.S. Gulf.

On January 18, the closing price of phenol Market in Europe was stable, with the latest quotation of 1026-1030 euros/ton.

Recently, Zhanjiang Branch of CNOOC (China) Co., Ltd. has successfully tested Ledong 10-1-13, an ultra-high temperature and ultra-high pressure exploration well in Yingge Haile East 10 area. Previously, the well drilled more than 100 meters of gas reservoirs. New breakthroughs have been made in the exploration of “Shuangchao” area in the western South China Sea. This is what Hainan Daily reporters learned from CNOOC on the 16th.

Looking back in 2018, oil and gas exploration in the west of the South China Sea has achieved a bumper harvest, and the reserves assessment index has been overfulfilled. Five commercial and potential commercial discoveries, six successful evaluations and three large and medium-sized oil and gas fields have been found. From crude oil to natural gas, from ultra-high temperature and pressure to deep water, exploration in Western South China Sea has blossomed at many points, breaking the silence of breakthroughs in Lingshui 17-2 gas field after its discovery, and forming a new peak of oil and gas reserves growth.

According to reports, CNOOC has four major oil and gas producing areas in China’s offshore: Bohai Bay, the western South China Sea, the eastern South China Sea and the East China Sea. Among them, the western South China Sea is rich in oil and gas resources. Since 1980s, a number of oil and gas fields have been discovered, and tens of millions of tons of oil and gas production capacity have been built. Entering the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, Zhanjiang Branch of CNOOC has strengthened geological research and technical tackling, effectively promoting oil and gas exploration. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, 11 oil and gas fields were discovered in this area, and proved oil and gas reserves exceeded the sum of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Especially in natural gas exploration, many gas fields, such as Lingshui 17-2, have been discovered, and the exploration reserves of natural gas in the future are the sum of the previous 30 years. At the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan, because the geological conditions in the field of exploration are becoming more and more complex, the difficulty of exploration is increasing, and it is difficult to find more discoveries. In this regard, Zhanjiang Branch of CNOOC further strengthens theoretical research and technological innovation, and achieves good exploration results.

In 2018, two medium-sized and high-quality oilfields were harvested in crude oil exploration in the western South China Sea. Guided by the innovative knowledge of “low-angle fault reservoir control” and “sandy clastic flow lithologic trap”, we deepened the integrated operation of rolling exploration and development, deployed exploration wells between the two developed oilfields and implemented a medium-sized oilfield in the high-maturity exploration area of Weinan, Beibuwan Bay. In Wushi Depression of Beibuwan Bay, the first large-scale oil and gas discovery was made in Xiayang Formation of Wushi area, and another medium-sized oil field was implemented. In Wenchang exploration area of Pearl River Mouth Basin, rolling exploration was carried out and commercial discoveries were harvested.

In the same year, gas exploration in the western South China Sea was gratifying. In Ledong 10-1 area in the field of ultra-high temperature and high pressure, the evaluation well Ledong 10-1-6 drilled 133 meters gas reservoir, creating the thickest single well discovery gas reservoir record, single well exploration and the largest third-class reserves record in the basin. The evaluation of Ledong 10-1 area is successful and shows great potential for natural gas exploration. On December 25, 2018, Zhanjiang Branch of China National Offshore Oil Co., Ltd. deployed Ledong 10-1-13, an ultra-high temperature and ultra-high pressure exploration well in Yingge Haile East 10 area, and made a new breakthrough in the field of “double supersonic” exploration in the western South China Sea. In the deep-water eastern area of Qiongdongnan Basin, CNOOC has drilled two exploration wells and obtained two potential commercial discoveries, which confirmed the Songnan-Baodao hydrocarbon-rich depression in the deep-water Eastern area, expanded two sets of new reservoir-forming assemblages, and pushed deep-water exploration into the fast lane again.

At the same time, China National Offshore Oil Co., Ltd. Zhanjiang Branch has set off a new upsurge in foreign cooperative exploration. Six petroleum contracts were signed in 2018, which set a new 11-year high in the western South China Sea. The imported exploration investment is particularly significant, which will greatly boost the exploration process in the western South China Sea.

January 16th India phenol Market closing price stability, the CIF price of US $1013-1016 / ton.

On January 16, the Asian acetone market closed at a stable price of $498-501 per ton, CFR China.