First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of August 7, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,982 yuan / ton, the overall market conditions rose sharply, the price rose 31.27% over the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. Futures continued to rise, driving the spot to rise. Today, the ports and the mainland are all rising, ranging from 50-240 yuan/ton. The southwest and northeast are temporarily stable, waiting for the new price. The new price in the northwest rose by 200 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton, focusing on the transmission to the mainland consumer market. On August 7, Zhengshang’s main contract for methanol futures, MA1809, fluctuated at a high level in the day, and closed at 3,237, up 12, with a turnover of 1.064 million hands and a reduction of 86,836 contracts.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: The raw material methanol market has risen sharply, the cost is better than the formaldehyde support, and the formaldehyde price has risen accordingly; the demand for downstream plates and other low seasons is more than just purchase. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market rose sharply at the beginning of the week. Due to the company’s downsizing and maintenance news, the spot shortage in the market. Manufacturers export more, ship, long-term and pre-order orders. Therefore, the supplier’s offer has been continuously raised. Dimethyl ether: Due to the sharp increase in the trend of raw material methanol, the overall price trend of the domestic DME market continued to rise in the near future.

Freight reference: domestic methanol freight finishing, the Inner Mongolia north line to Lubei freight reference 250-290 yuan / ton, slightly higher; south line to Lubei freight 190-240 yuan / ton; Shanxi to Lubei 120-160 Yuan / ton, slightly higher; Guanzhong to Lubei freight 90-130 yuan / ton; Xinjiang to Lubei reference 680 yuan / ton.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: On the positive side, under the influence of environmental protection, Shanxi and North Jiangsu coke oven gas methanol projects are still affected; futures gaps open higher, sharply higher, driving the spot higher; Russia’s methanol plant is shut down, international supply is reduced; Northwest The price of the guide will be raised to 2,550 yuan / ton, which will drive the surrounding market. . For the bearish side, the overall operation of the olefin plant is currently maintained at a low level; the MTO of Lianyungang is shut down for maintenance; the olefin load in Shandong is reduced to 60%, which is unfavorable for methanol digestion; the downstream traditional demand is low season, the overall low level is started, and the MTBE and East China acetic acid are repaired. The methanol digestion is limited; the factory in the northwestern Inner Mongolia will be gradually restarted, the resources will be supplied or enlarged; some methanol plants in northern Jiangsu will be restarted, and the supply of resources in the area will be enlarged. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that in the short-term market, as the main production area equipment gradually recovers, the resources supply or amplification, but some manufacturers overhaul news, so the downstream demand is not good, the methanol market is expected to be weak and dominated. .