Trade name: melamine

Latest price (October 25): 19966.67 yuan / ton

On October 25, the melamine market rose slightly, up 0.84% compared with last Friday, 15.41% compared with September 25, and 50.88% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price is running at a high level, the cost side has a certain support, the operating rate of melamine has increased, enterprises mainly execute early orders, strong export demand, flat domestic trade demand, and the market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger and stronger.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the recent trend of PP market has fallen, and the spot prices of various brands have fallen greatly. As of October 22, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9116.67 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.26% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of raw propylene, the propylene market in Shandong continued to decline this week, with a large range. The market trading returns to rationality, the willingness of downstream buyers is not strong, and the willingness of enterprises to take goods is obvious due to the impact of low-price goods. Downstream demand is the main demand. Although crude oil prices continue to rise, there is insufficient support. It is difficult to further improve the long and short game in the propylene market. It is expected that the propylene market will maintain a weak shock in the near future.

The price of direct raw material propylene fell, while the national development and Reform Commission strengthened the investigation and punishment of malicious speculation of coal by capital, which is expected to suppress the coal price and weaken the cost side support of PP. In addition, local environmental protection policies affect the industry and its downstream operating rate, and the downstream demand is lower than that in the same period of previous years, dragging down the spot price of PP. In terms of inventory, enterprises decreased and agents increased. Near the end of the month, some profit-making businesses had significant profit transfer operations.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9300.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly rise and fall of – 6.06%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.27%. The demand for PP fiber material this week is general. At present, the proportion of domestic fiber material production is medium and low, the demand of the main downstream non-woven enterprises is weak, and the digestion level of end consumer goods is stable. Fiber materials fell due to the impact of energy stagflation and propylene reduction.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has fallen slightly recently, and the spot price has been adjusted at a high level. As of October 22, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10083.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.31% in the week. At present, sporadic local diagnosis of domestic health events has a little pulling effect on the melt blown cloth market. However, affected by the decline of raw materials, the survival of melt blown cloth enterprises is still difficult, and there are few devices still producing melt blown PP in China.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell this week, propylene and coal weakened at the cost side, and the upstream support for PP weakened. The load of terminal enterprises is lower due to environmental protection regulations, and the traditional peak demand season ends, so the on-site demand follow-up is poor. Merchants give away the profit order, and the offer is reduced by a large margin. It is expected that the PP market may be weak in a narrow range in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 7800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7866.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 66.67 yuan / ton, or 0.85%, a year-on-year increase of 187.81%. On the whole, the calcium carbide market rose this week, and the calcium carbide commodity index was 206.11 on October 15.

Upstream cost supports, downstream demand increases, and calcium carbide production decreases

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone quoted 7800 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend is 7800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 8000 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, in the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan was adjusted at a high level this week, and the bulk material fell slightly. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of big materials this weekend is 3400 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a high level and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

In the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this week. The PVC quotation this week increased from 14325.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.87%, an increase of 110.41% over the same period last year. The PVC price rose slightly this week, the market continued to rise, the PVC maintenance was completed, and the downstream had a good enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, the PVC market this week had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market rose and rose slightly in the future

In late October, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market is rising and the demand is good. Double control of energy consumption and reduction of calcium carbide output. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late October.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 20): 13600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, the PVC futures fell by the limit in the late night of October 19. On October 20, the closing price of the main contract 2201 was 11040, down 6.99%, suppressing market sentiment. The price of the spot market fell sharply, the price of PVC manufacturers fell, the offer of cargo holders fell, the price was chaotic, and the quotation was mostly about 13000-14000, Some enterprises closed their offer and stopped quotation, and the market focus moved down.

Forecast: PVC prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term.

region varieties workmanship October 20th

Shanghai PVC Calcium carbide method 12200-12400 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC Calcium carbide method 12280-12500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC Calcium carbide method 12900-13150 yuan / ton

In mid October, the rise of propane did not stop, and the overall domestic propane market continued to rise. The price of propane in Shandong has increased significantly, and the price is about to break through the level of 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6150.75 yuan / ton on October 10 and 6793.25 yuan / ton on October 18, with an increase of 10.45% during the period, an increase of 36.32% compared with September 1.

As of October 18, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications October 18th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6350-6600 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6600-6800 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6800-6950 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6220-6350 yuan / ton

In mid October, the domestic propane Market as a whole continued to play a leading role, and both the north and South markets increased to varying degrees. The market in Shandong increased significantly, and the price mostly rose above 6800 yuan / ton. At present, the average price of propane Market in Shandong has reached the highest point of 6793.25 yuan / ton in recent seven years.

In the middle of the year, the domestic propane market continued to be positive. At present, the northern market rose slightly and the southern market pushed up steadily, showing an upward trend. The high international crude oil price and high import cost have brought obvious support to the propane Market. In addition, the weather in the northern market has cooled significantly recently, the terminal demand has increased significantly, and the supply in the northern market has decreased. Under the dual advantages of supply and demand, the price continues to rise.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 800 USD / T, an increase of 135 USD / T compared with the previous month; Butane is 795 USD / T, an increase of 130 USD / T compared with the previous month.

Although the current domestic propane market has increased significantly to a relatively high level, the peak season of propane market has come. With the obvious cooling of the weather, the terminal demand has increased significantly. In addition, the import cost and international crude oil have also brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. Although the recent market rise has narrowed compared with the previous period, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild and the benefits are obvious, The propane market is still bullish in the later stage.

Acetic anhydride market price fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week and the market of acetic anhydride fell. As of October 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 13625.00 yuan / ton, down 8.86% from 14950.00 yuan / ton on October 8. The market of acetic anhydride fell, and the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened in the future, and the downward pressure increased.

The market of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid fell sharply after the festival in October, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell sharply, the price of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. After the price rise of methanol after the festival, it fell slightly, the rise of methanol lost support, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the future rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, after the festival, the price of acetic acid fell, the high price of methanol fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, the downward pressure increased, and the acetic anhydride market fell. In the future, the price of acetic acid continued to decline, the high price of methanol fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, the downward pressure increased, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to fall.

According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE rose from 6320 yuan / ton to 6814 yuan / ton from October 8 to 15, with a price increase of 7.82% during the week, a price increase of 11.52% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 89.63%.

This week, the market price of MTBE rose to a new high in the year, and the ex factory quotation of enterprises increased by 800-900 yuan / ton. The rise slowed down at the weekend, mainly finishing. Crude oil prices continued to rise, once rising to a high above US $83 / barrel, providing psychological support for commodities. Gasoline prices rose. Supported by the continuous rise of crude oil and the high level of diesel, the price of gasoline rose sharply, and the MTBE market rose sharply.

The price of C4 raw material increased by 700-800 yuan / ton, which supported the market cost of MTBE. The price of raw methanol is also rising step by step, with an increase of about 200-400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on October 14, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $20 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $852-854 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by USD 6 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at USD 885.75-886.25/t. The closing price of us MTBE market increased by US $10.47/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $857.89-858.25/t (241.66-241.76 cents / gallon).

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Singapore USD 852-854 / ton USD 20 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay 857.89-858.25 USD / ton USD 10.47/t

Europe FOB ARA USD 885.75-886.25/t USD 6 / ton

In terms of enterprises, the 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and CO production 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. started normally, and the MTBE online auction quotation was reduced by 10 yuan / T and 6770 yuan / T; The daily output is about 900 tons, the product purity is 99%, and the sulfur is 1ppm. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6900 yuan / ton. Product index: the purity of the product is 99%, and the sulfur is less than 5ppm.

Recently, the MTBE market has been supported by the high level of crude oil, the continuous rise of raw material C4, methanol and isobutane, and the price has risen to a new high in the year. However, as the price rose to a high level, the downstream receiving became more cautious, and the raw materials began to show a downward trend. In addition, the trend of crude oil was unstable, and the market pessimism returned. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate increased slightly this week, and only some enterprises increased the price slightly. On October 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 171600 yuan / ton, which was 1.18% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 169600 yuan / ton on October 10). On October 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 178800 yuan / ton, which was 1.13% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 176800 yuan / ton on October 10). As of October 13, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 165000 ~ 188000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 175000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate gradually stabilized after the National Day holiday. Due to the influence of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the production reduction of downstream enterprises still continued, so the demand was relatively reduced, making the price of lithium carbonate rise slowly. At present, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see state, and there are relatively few transactions. In addition, the obvious delay in the expansion of iron lithium market and the lower than expected increase in demand are also one of the factors contributing to the slow rise in the price of lithium carbonate.

In September 2021, China’s lithium carbonate output was about 19557 tons, with a month on month decrease of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. At the end of September, the impact of power rationing and geological disasters in many places in China had a slight impact on lithium salt production. The output of lithium carbonate extracted from spodumene also decreased, while the output of lithium mica and Salt Lake changed little. In October, the impact of film restrictions gradually eased, the output increased relatively, and the relationship between market supply and demand was alleviated.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market operates stably. At present, the raw material price is high, the cost side has a certain support, the demand side of industrial lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, as the price of lithium carbonate remains high and the price of iron phosphate continues to rise, the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuates with the cost of raw materials. At present, the overall demand is good, the power and small power demand are upward, and the price transmission is good.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, the current gas and power restrictions have a certain impact on upstream and downstream production. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. The lithium salt supply and demand structure is still in the tension of going to the warehouse. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may rise slowly or maintain stability temporarily.

Zinc prices continued to rise on October 13

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose for four consecutive trading days after the national day. As of October 13, the zinc price was 23835.00 yuan / ton, up 5.06% from 22686.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Zinc market continued to rise after the festival.

Power rationing in zinc City

In late September, Guangdong, Shandong, Qinghai, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and other places successively issued power rationing or staggered peak power consumption notices. Most provinces in China have encountered power rationing. Zinc smelting, as one of the main power consuming industries, has a great impact on the zinc smelting industry and the output of zinc smelting has decreased. During the national day, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hunan provinces with severe power rationing in September were not eased, and power rationing was increased in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Some manufacturers were notified to start four days off and three days off, and the limited film response in zinc city increased slightly. After the festival, the output of some power rationing and shutdown enterprises recovered, and the supply of zinc City recovered. The overall impact of power rationing on the zinc market remains the same, and the short-term increase in zinc supply is limited, and the supply of zinc is still tight.

The fourth national dumping

According to Announcement No. 2 of 2021 of the State Food and material reserve bureau, it is decided to put the fourth batch of national reserve zinc in 2021 on October 9, with a total sales volume of 50000 tons. The fourth batch of reserve zinc was put into the market, which alleviated the short-term supply of zinc market and increased the short-term supply of zinc market.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: with the upgrading of power restriction, the output of zinc city decreases, the supply tension of zinc City intensifies, and the driving force for the rise of zinc price increases; The national dumping of reserves has alleviated the shortage of zinc market, and the driving force of zinc price rise has weakened. Overall, the momentum for the rise of zinc price in the future remains, the short-term zinc price falls slightly, and the medium-term zinc price rises slightly.

The external ethylene market showed an upward trend as a whole. The price rise in the Asian ethylene market was temporarily stable. As of the 11th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / T. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 11th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1211-1221 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1128-1136 / ton.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that the rise of international oil prices and the continuous rebound of oil prices are mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of electricity and natural gas in major economies, driving the rise of oil prices. Cost support is conducive to the rise of ethylene market, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.