According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6150.75 yuan / ton on October 10 and 6245.75 yuan / ton on October 11, with a single day decline of 1.54%, an increase of 25.33% compared with September 1.

On October 11, the rise in the domestic propane market continued, and most of the ex factory quotations in Shandong market increased. At present, the mainstream quotation is 6100-6350 yuan / ton. The high level of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. After the festival, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild, the weather turns cool, and the demand has increased. It is expected that the price of propane market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

Fluctuation trend:

Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, near winter, fuel demand increased, superimposed with tight supply expectations in the crude oil market, and international oil prices continued to rise.

Crude oil continued to rise, giving positive support to relevant aromatic products, and prices generally rose. Yesterday, crude oil and external market rose significantly, external news supported well, and the holders had a strong upward psychology; Terminal gasoline is expected to follow up with crude oil, which also gives positive support to the mixed xylene market.

Price dynamics: on October 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 7950 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8000 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8000 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Dongming Petrochemical is 8300 yuan / ton; HSBC Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton; Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 8303 yuan / ton; Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, due to the current tight energy supply, the market sentiment is still bullish on oil prices. The market believes that it is unlikely for the United States to release emergency crude oil reserves or prohibit exports, and the oil price is supported.

During the festival, crude oil rose broadly, bringing positive support to the cost side; New units are put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase, which drives the downstream inquiry better. During the festival, the price of pure benzene in Shandong rose continuously. Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 8000 yuan / ton. Today, the price of pure benzene is 7950-8303 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on September 30, the average p value of diethylene glycol market price was 6683 yuan / ton, an increase of 553 yuan / ton compared with September 1, an increase of 8.99%.

In September, the price of diethylene glycol fell slightly after rising. On September 26, the ex factory price of Sinopec in South China was increased by 200 yuan / ton, 6500-6600 yuan / ton. On September 23, the ex factory price of Sinopec in East China was increased by 100 yuan / ton, 6500-6650 yuan / ton. On September 24, the ex factory price of Sinopec in North China was increased by 200 yuan / ton to 6600 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 27, the total inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 17.35 million tons, a month on month decrease of 29.05 million tons, a decrease of 14.53%, and a decrease of 9.45 million tons, a decrease of 35.26%, compared with August 30. Shutdown and maintenance of Yanshan Petrochemical Unit. The diethylene glycol production line of PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical operates at low load. Zhongke oil refining unit operates smoothly.

3、 Analysis and prediction

At present, the operation rate of downstream plants affected by the restricted power policy is low, and the operation rate of main downstream UPR of diethylene glycol is maintained at 36%. The supply side port inventory and import volume continued to be low. Although a small number of cargo ships planned to arrive at the port, the inventory was still insufficient. In the middle and late of this month, a small amount of goods just needed to be prepared before the festival in the downstream market. Originally, it was in a tight spot state, superimposed a small increase in demand, and the market price continued to rise. At the end of the month, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, the demand side change space was slightly narrow, the market transaction was weak, and the price fell by a narrow margin. After the festival, the market also needs to pay attention to the arrival of the supply terminal and the change of the demand terminal. It is expected that the short-term diethylene glycol market may continue to operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on September 1, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6133 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6500 yuan / ton. In September, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 5.98%.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this month, the price of raw liquid chlorine continued to rise, the market demand for chlorinated paraffin was good, and the price increased slightly. Since mid month, the supply of chlorinated paraffin is tight, and the on-site trading is good. At the end of the month, due to power and production restrictions, the supply of raw liquid chlorine decreased and the price rose again, driving the rise of chlorinated paraffin. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in South China is about 7300-7450 yuan / ton, that in North China is about 6200 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6900 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 6100-6300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the liquid wax market is stable and rising this month, the downstream demand increases, the trading volume is OK, and the market trend is more optimistic. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, liquid chlorine in Shandong rose sharply at the beginning of the month, followed by other regions. Prices fell slightly in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, due to dual control reasons, some enterprises stopped work and the price of liquid chlorine rose again.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that due to the influence of double control this month, the supply of raw liquid chlorine is too small and the price continues to rise. In addition, the shortage of chlorinated paraffin stocks, good demand and rising prices. It is expected that the high price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly next month, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

In September 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market rose as a whole after several shocks. The average price in the domestic market was 250100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 278012.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.16%.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 142.25, up 1.65 points from yesterday, down 2.83% from the highest point of 146.39 in the cycle (2021-09-27), and up 231.89% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In September, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated for many times, but the overall trend remained upward. The reason is still affected by tight supply. Although the price fell at the end of the month, the overall price is still at an all-time high. In terms of inventory, data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that the inventory level of Lunxi was 1260 tons. Shanghai tin stock of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1299 tons. In terms of raw materials, tin ore imports have decreased month on month since August, especially in Myanmar, where the supply of raw materials is still tight. However, the downstream power rationing also affects the demand side. The main downstream demand areas are in Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are the key implementation areas of domestic power rationing. The production restriction in the main production areas has a great impact on the demand for tin. Although the overall inventory is still low, the social inventory has rebounded recently near the end of the month.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply is still tight, but the weakening downstream demand has offset some of the increase, and the tin price will maintain a weak trend of shock in the future.

Relevant data:

According to the latest report data of the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), there was a supply shortage of 2100 tons in the global tin market from January to July 2021. From January to July 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 33000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 8% to 234300 tons compared with the same period last year. In July 2021, the global refined tin output was 25500 tons and the consumption was 25200 tons.

The domestic cyclohexanone market rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10720 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 12760 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.03% in the month and 90.86% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, the cyclohexanone market was strong and upward, pure benzene rose steadily, the cost support was relatively stable, the maintenance of downstream caprolactam units was concentrated, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased.

In the middle of the month, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton to 7850 yuan / ton, which was strongly supported by the cost side. The downstream caprolactam has more shutdown and maintenance, the supply is tight, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increasing.

In late June, the cyclohexanone market operated strongly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. However, the downstream caprolactam supply is tight. During the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, some chemical fiber plants actively prepare goods and purchase, forming a good demand support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, there are many parking lots of cyclohexanone, the commodity volume continues to be in short supply, and cyclohexanone runs at a high price.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone:

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 29:

region ., Price

East China 12900-13000 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 13100-13200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 12600-12800 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly and significantly at the beginning of the month, forming a strong support for cyclohexanone. At the end of the month, pure benzene was listed for two times, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, weakening the positive cost side.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Downstream, the maintenance of caprolactam unit was concentrated at the beginning of the month, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased. From mid month to the end of the month, caprolactam has a lot of parking and maintenance, and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, near the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the demand for cyclohexanone in downstream chemical fibers and solvents increases.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in August 2021, there were 59 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 29 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 29.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were formic acid (48.35%), lithium carbonate (30.45%) and hydrochloric acid (29.41%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were liquid ammonia (- 21.16%), chloroform (- 16.00%) and urea (- 13.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.39%.

Although the cost side lacks support, cyclohexanone is in short supply. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still be strong.

According to the price monitoring of business society, in September 2021, the market price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China continued to soar in August, and the price remained in the rising range until the end of the month, but slowed down slightly. As of September 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 167800 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 119200 yuan / ton on September 1). On September 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 175200 yuan / ton, an increase of 39.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 125600 yuan / ton on September 1). Until the 28th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 153000-187000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 163000-205000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued the upward trend at the end of August from September, and the rising range continued to increase rapidly. Around the middle of September, the domestic mainstream manufacturers basically completed the spot sales in September, and the market supply is very tight. With the rising price, there is a gap at the raw material end. The large-scale production of overseas mines and salt lakes will start at the end of this year or early next year, and the shortage of raw materials may last for several months. In terms of supply and demand, the state of short supply continues. In the early stage, the inventory of some manufacturers and traders is slowly released. Therefore, the rising sentiment is high and the price is rising.

Until the end of September, the rise of lithium carbonate price slowed down. First, the price slowed down because the price remained high and the acceptance of small and medium-sized material factories was low. Most of them focused on inquiry, but the purchase volume was slightly inferior. Second, affected by the “dual control of energy consumption” policy and import increment, the market reluctance to sell was slightly weakened, and traders and some smelters began to gradually increase their sales to the market.

In terms of upstream raw materials, it is difficult to obtain one ticket for overseas lithium concentrate. On September 14, the auction price of the second batch of 8000 tons of lithium concentrate of Pilbara, an Australian lithium mining enterprise, reached 2240 yuan / ton, continuing to hit a record high, which makes the subsequent lithium salt plants sell their products under the condition of reasonable profits, and the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise. In the fourth quarter of China, with the impact of climate cooling, the output of Salt Lake will also decrease, which makes the demand for raw materials more tense.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market continued to rise as a whole in September. The strong operation of the upstream spodumene price and the rise of lithium carbonate price both led to the rise of lithium hydroxide price. Near the end of the month, affected by the policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the operating rate in some regions decreased. However, when the downstream material factory entered the procurement replenishment season at the end of the month, the procurement volume increased and the transaction price increased.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the lithium iron phosphate market was also in the rising range in September. Due to the continuous rise of upstream raw materials and rapid price transmission, the market price of lithium iron phosphate continued to rise. In terms of demand, near the fourth quarter, the downstream power market demand has increased to a certain extent, raising the demand for iron and lithium.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, although the market shipments have increased and the superimposed demand side has been slightly reduced under the influence of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the limitation of lithium resources in China in the fourth quarter can not be alleviated. There is still a demand gap in the lithium carbonate market before the end of the year, and there is still room for rise. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in an upward trend, but it will slow down slightly.

Domestic cobalt prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, affected by the sharp rise of international cobalt price, the domestic cobalt price continued to rise this week. After that, the cobalt price stabilized and the rise of cobalt Market slowed down. As of September 27, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.71% from 374800.00 yuan / ton on September 20 at the beginning of last week.

International cobalt prices rose sharply this week

time Category specification minimum price Rise and fall Highest price Rise and fall Company

September 17, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 17, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point six zero point one five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point five zero point zero five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five zero point three five twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point eight zero point three twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five 0 twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point nine zero point one twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point one five twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point two twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

From the data released by LME market, it can be seen that after the closing price of LME cobalt rose sharply this week, the cobalt price stabilized, the international cobalt Market stabilized, and the positive impact on the domestic cobalt Market slowed down. From the trend of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price continued to rise this week, but the increase slowed down, and the international cobalt market rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market, but the positive momentum weakened.

Influence of double control power rationing on cobalt Market

Recently, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have introduced power restriction measures. The production of iron and steel, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, textile and other industries in many places has been affected to a certain extent, and production has been reduced or stopped one after another. The national double control large-scale power rationing has a great impact on the production of key energy consuming enterprises such as smelting, and non-ferrous smelting enterprises stop production and reduce production more.

The “power restriction order” in the three northeastern provinces and other places has spread from factories to residents’ lives. According to media reports, recently, many places such as Shenbei New District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province had a sudden “switch off and power failure”, which once led to traffic paralysis and affected residents’ lives. The power shortage has even affected residents’ lives. The growth of electric vehicles is bound to exacerbate the power shortage and increase the pressure on the power grid. In the case of such serious power rationing, it will discourage consumers from buying electric vehicles to a certain extent.

New energy vehicles with soaring costs

Since 2021, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative electrode materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, the raw material cost of lithium battery has increased significantly, and the battery cost has basically increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. Under the dual influence of the continuous rise of raw material costs and the expansion of market share of new energy vehicle enterprises at this stage, in order to control costs, more vehicle enterprises choose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In August 2021, China’s lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 56.9% of the output of power batteries, which has greatly exceeded that of ternary batteries. The fundamental reason may be that the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries can be reduced by 65% – 72% compared with ternary batteries. With the implementation of the “production restriction order”, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery also has an upward trend, and the supply of lithium iron phosphate has long been in an emergency. In the future, the proportion of ternary battery market is expected to slow down, and the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that stimulated by the rise in international cobalt prices, domestic cobalt prices rose this week. Affected by double control power and production restriction, the domestic cobalt salt price continues to rise, and the rise of cobalt salt price drives the rise of metal cobalt price. However, in the future, with the intensification of power restriction, the commencement of non-ferrous smelting industry decreases, the output of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the power restriction intensifies or affects the sales of new energy vehicles. With the continuous rise of lithium iron phosphate price, the decline in the proportion of ternary battery market slows down, the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly in the future, and the rising support of cobalt market still exists. Overall, the cobalt market has risen recently. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize before the festival, and the long-term cobalt price will rise slowly.

This week (September 20-26), the price of domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.76% this week. As of Sunday, the price of liquid ammonia has increased by 26.92% since September. At present, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached 4700-4800 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the boost of high cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer.

On the supply side, the market supply remains tight. The units in northwest, Hubei, Hebei, Shandong and other main producing areas were shut down for maintenance or started with load reduction, the market supply continued to decline, the domestic urea output decreased significantly, and the price began to rise continuously. However, some ammonia enterprises switched to urea, which exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia also rose moderately, Especially from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and other regions continuously raised their ex factory prices, and the market was stable at the weekend.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of power coal at the beginning of the week was about 1407.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1525 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 8.35% and a year-on-year increase of 155.98%. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the recent dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines are still in the shutdown stage, and the overall supply of power coal is tight. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, and the available coal storage days of the power plant are at a low level. The power plant just needs to purchase and passively accepts the high price. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of frequent maintenance by downstream urea manufacturers and significant decline in daily average urea output, large plants in Xinjiang and Shandong have been overhauled or reduced load this week, affecting the daily output of more than 4000 tons. The shortage of supply has led to the soaring price of urea. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 9.27% this week. Although there is no fundamental improvement in downstream demand, the shortage of goods in the market leads to tight terminal procurement. The domestic compound fertilizer market is generally stable, but the “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” has affected the market mentality to a certain extent. The rise of urea price slowed down over the weekend, and the market rigidity is expected to be mild before the festival.

In terms of export, the import and export quarantine policy with high market attention has an obvious impact on the market. The change of China’s export inspection mode has an adverse impact on China’s exporters’ enthusiasm for purchasing ports, and the export increment in the later stage may be restrained.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the short-term market is still good. Although the recent resumption of work by enterprises will bring new output, it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year in the short term, and the downstream procurement is expected to rise near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, which will make the price of liquid ammonia easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply under the background of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, In particular, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, and the market is expected to maintain a high and narrow fluctuation in the near future.