1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3433 yuan / ton on November 1, and the average ex factory price of% powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.97% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on November 1 and 3590 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 50%, down from last week. At present, the demand for monoammonium is low, the trend is weak, and the transaction of new orders is limited. The manufacturer’s mentality is unstable and takes a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the poor market atmosphere, the transaction focus was lowered. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 46%, down from last week. At present, the diammonium market operates weakly and stably, the autumn fertilizer has basically ended, and the market demand is insufficient. The winter storage market has not been opened, the market has no clear guidance, and the enthusiasm in the venue is not high. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3500-3700 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated, and the main order is issued in the early stage.

As for the raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market situation has been sorted out and consolidated at a high level this week. The overall supply of phosphorus ore market in some regions is still tight. The site continues to supply orders from old customers. The downstream stock of phosphorus ore terminal is normal, the market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and most mining enterprises maintain high and firm quotations. As of November 7, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 663 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, the market demand for monoammonium is insufficient and the price is under pressure, so it is a single discussion. The demand for diammonium is weakened and the on-site wait-and-see attitude is obvious. The price of ammonium phosphate raw material is strong and the cost is favorable. It is expected that monoammonium will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and the price may continue to decline. Diammonium is dominated by weak and stable operation.

1、 Price summary on November 5:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6650 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6850 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 6702 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + has no plan to increase production. Saudi Arabia raised the official price of crude oil, and the international oil price rebounded significantly on Friday. Data released by Baker Hughes on the 5th showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 6 month on month and 224 year-on-year this week. The increase of US crude oil production and the late resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations may be bad for oil prices.

Crude oil prices rebounded last Friday, boosting related commodities; Terminal gasoline rebounded, and the price of toluene remained stable today.

Plasticizer DOP prices continued to fall this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DOP prices continued the downward trend in October this week, fluctuated and fell, and the overall DOP market fell weakly this week. As of November 4, the DOP price was 12450 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton or 3.49% from 12900 yuan / ton on October 29 last weekend; DOP market fell this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol failed to rebound and rise this week, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell slightly. This week, the price of isooctanol fell slightly due to the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas; Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise, the cost of isooctanol is reduced, the price of isooctanol is under great pressure, the price of isooctanol is reduced, the cost of plasticizer DOP is reduced, and the downward pressure of DOP is increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell steadily this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week, and the phthalic anhydride market fell steadily. Affected by the rising price of phthalic anhydride, the cost of phthalic anhydride is still supported, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride is weak, and the upward momentum still exists.

PVC fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price fell sharply this week. As of November 4, the average price of PVC was 9470 yuan / ton, down 8.06% from 10300 yuan / ton last weekend; PVC prices fell sharply this week, plasticizer demand remained weak, downstream customers of plasticizer had poor purchasing enthusiasm, and DOP prices fell under great pressure.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the support of DOP raw materials is not available this week, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride decreased slightly this week, and the cost of DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the price of PVC fell sharply, the demand for DOP was weak, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream customers was poor, the acceptance of high priced DOP was poor, and the downward pressure of DOP was great. Generally speaking, the cost of DOP has decreased, the demand is insufficient, the upward momentum of DOP is insufficient, and the downward pressure is great. DOP prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose in a wide range in October. After the national day, the price rose rapidly, and the rising trend continued in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11300-11500 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 14500 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.87% over the beginning of the month and 111.44% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw material, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell after a wide rise this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7880 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 7600 yuan / ton. The highest price of this month appears on October 13, and the price is 8580 yuan / ton. The lowest price appears on October 29, and the price is 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid: nitric acid fluctuated and fell after a slight rise this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3516.67 yuan / ton on October 1 and 3286.67 yuan / ton on October 29, down 6.54% from the beginning of the month and up 103.3% from the same period last year.

During the national day, a set of 100000 t / a equipment in Nanhua was restarted on October 5; Due to raw material problems, Shanxi Tianji plant was operated at reduced load; Jinling aniline plant operates under reduced load due to power limitation. The overall operating rate of aniline decreased and the spot supply in the market decreased; The demand for downstream terminal additives is good, the downstream delivery mood is good, the inventory of aniline enterprises remains low, and the supply in the spot market is tight, supporting the wide rise of prices. The raw material level rose to a high level, with strong support for aniline and high cost of aniline.

On the 14th, due to an accident in Jiangsu Fuqiang, the restart time of aniline plant was delayed, which led to another rise of aniline. The operating rate of aniline plant was not high, the demand for downstream additives increased, the resistance to high priced aniline was not strong, the market continued the tight supply pattern, and the factory was reluctant to sell, which supported the continuous strengthening of aniline prices throughout October.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the cost support of pure benzene is still strong in the short term. If the production capacity of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical is improved, the supply of pure benzene will increase in the later stage. Some downstream still limit power, reduce load and stop, and weak demand limits the recovery of pure benzene prices. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly in early November.

Cost side: the expected trend of raw material side is weak, and the cost side support is weak. Supply side: the aniline units of Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao were shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, the restart of Jiangsu Fuqiang unit was delayed, the operating rate of Aniline Unit was low, and the supply was expected to be reduced. Demand side: at present, the downstream demand is stable. Overall, aniline is expected to run at a high level in the short term. In the later stage, if the raw material level continues to decline, aniline may fall. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.

In October, domestic ethyl acetate reversed the rise of last month, and the price fluctuated downward. The price of upstream acetic acid continued to decline after the festival, with a deep decline and weakened cost support. In addition, the main enterprises resumed production and local supply increased, resulting in oversupply in the market. After superposition, the price has reached a high point, and the callback is inevitable. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate decreased by 3.97% in October, and the current price is in the range of 9400-9800 yuan / ton.

First of all, according to the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid fell in October. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline of acetic acid was 24.5%. Domestic acetic acid enterprises have more devices, stable operation and increased inventory, while the downstream is affected by limited power production, the downstream operation is low, there is no significant increase in market demand, the market purchase is still rational, and the on-site trading is light, resulting in the continuous increase of acetic acid inventory. In addition, the market source consumption is slow, and the quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is constantly reduced in order to maintain shipment.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, firstly, at the supply end, the supply of ethyl acetate increased significantly compared with the previous month, mainly due to the resumption of production of main manufacturers in Shandong. At the same time, Anhui and Jiangsu plants have also resumed production one after another. The supply expectation has amplified the market bearish effect, and the market has changed from short supply before the festival to oversupply.

On the demand side, the market demand has not improved much except for the normal rigid demand, and the downstream goods preparation before the festival also leads to more cautious delivery after the festival. In addition, the downstream industries are affected by power rationing, and the demand is weaker. This became the last straw to crush the price of ethyl acetate.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that the current ethyl acetate Market has sufficient supply, and it is expected that the downstream will be difficult to return to normal in the short term. Therefore, the oversupply in the market will continue for some time, so the price of ethyl acetate is easy to fall and difficult to rise. However, considering that the current price has reached a relatively low level, the downward space in the later stage is also limited.

The MIBK market fluctuated downward in October. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 23275 yuan / ton on October 1 and 22025 yuan / ton on October 31, with an overall market decline of 5.37%. As can be seen from the trend chart below, the offer tends to be stable, and the MIBK market in East China is negotiated at 22000-22500 yuan / ton.

In the first ten days of October, the MIBK market rose above, the raw material end rose rapidly after the National Day holiday, and the operating rate of MIBK is expected to decline after the holiday. Among them, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical decreased to 50% operation, and the 50000 T / A units of Ningbo Zhenyang and Zhenjiang Li Changrong plan to stop for maintenance for one month on the 18th. The news of reducing the negative parking of devices in the yard continued to spread, the downstream inquired one after another, and the offers of cargo holders increased, The low level is not out, and the support from the raw material side is strong, and the market intention is higher.

Since mid September, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical has returned to 90% operation, and since the 13th, the whole industrial chain at the raw material end has turned around and experienced a significant downward trend. In the downstream, except for the consumption and balance of antioxidant, the market demand for other downstream solvents and coatings is general, and the purchase volume is expected to decrease. Therefore, the good times are not long, the increase is small, but it quickly enters the downward channel, By the end of the month, the negotiation in East China had reached about 22000 yuan / ton.

Devices in the industry: the 50000 T / a MIBK device of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang was shut down on October 18 for about one month, the monthly operating rate of 15000 T / a MIBK device of Wanhua chemical was adjusted from 50% to 90%, and the 15000 T / a MIBK device in Zhenyang, Ningbo was shut down.

From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market has entered a cooling off period. After a round of decline, the market has gradually stabilized. The high price of the carrier has been reported and the low price has been reported. The demand for antioxidant in the downstream is OK, and other downstream replenishment is general. The 50000 T / a device maintenance of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang in late October is expected to start in mid November. In November, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply pressure of the carrier is only increasing, Business community expects MIBK market to be weak in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on October 29, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 10400 yuan / ton, down 17.43% from the beginning of the week, 18.17% from the beginning of the month, and 45.22% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market fell sharply, down about 17%. The daily decline of enterprises was about 500 yuan / ton, and the price mostly hovered around 10000 yuan. PVC futures continued to fall. Although they rebounded, it was difficult to change the overall situation. The price in the spot market continued to fall, the profits of PVC enterprises were damaged, the price of raw calcium carbide fell to about 7200 yuan / ton, the cost support fell, and the mentality of the industry was negative, The market price is relatively chaotic, with most single discussions, but the downstream procurement is still cautious and continues to maintain just needed procurement. The market is shrouded in pessimism. The holders have a strong intention to make profit and ship, and the focus is moving down rapidly. In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9880-9950 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Tianjin is 9700-10000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 10450-10600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.

On October 28, the international oil price stabilized after falling. The WTI crude oil futures of the United States rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $82.81/barrel, up US $0.15 or 0.18%. Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $83.66/barrel, down US $0.21 or 0.25%. The previous trading day, affected by the surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and rumors of the resumption of Iran’s nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell sharply. At present, the market gradually returns to rationality and stops falling and stabilizes.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in October. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1186.75/t, an increase of 5.47%. The current price increased by 6.10% month on month, and the current price increased by 58.13% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil, the economy is gradually recovering, the demand continues to improve, and the high raw material price supports the cost of ethylene. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

For calcium carbide, on October 29, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide fell sharply to 7200-7600 yuan / ton, the downstream PVC market fell slightly recently, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. At present, with the relaxation of power restriction and the increase of calcium carbide production, it is expected that it will fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that under the guidance of macro policy information, the disk continues to be weak, the price of raw materials falls, the negative factors in the PVC market are obvious, and the market is weak.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17200.00 yuan / ton, down 0.77% compared with October 1, and up 2.38% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In October, propylene oxide market rose first and then fell. After returning from the National Day holiday, the price of raw propylene was high, the cost support was strong, the market supply was tight, the downstream purchase was stable and followed up, the factory shipment was pressureless, and the market was up. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene weakened, but the price of liquid chlorine operated strongly, the cost support remained, the tight supply situation continued, but the demand side was weak, and the market was deadlocked and operated at a stable price. Near the end of the month, the propylene market continued to weaken, the price of liquid chlorine fell, the cost support weakened, the market supply increased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, the market atmosphere was weak, and the market fell. On the 28th, the mainstream of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 17000-17100 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of October 27, the reference price of propylene was 8537.17, up 5.5% compared with October 1 (8092.17). Propylene (Shandong) market continues to decline, among which the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 8300-8350 yuan / ton. Propylene is now in the downward channel, the downstream demand support is weak, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. In particular, the main downstream polypropylene has poor recent performance, upside down market price and low start-up of enterprises.

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 24166 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (propylene glycol reference price was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3066 yuan / ton, or 14.53%; For the downstream soft foam polyether, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong decreased on the morning of October 28. At present, the mainstream quotation is around 17200-17500 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, on the whole, the current cost support is general, and the new orders of downstream polyether have increased. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may focus on wait-and-see consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 68796.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 72063.33 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 4.75%, an increase of 24.34% over the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 39.77%. Since the national day, copper prices have risen all the way to the second highest level of the year on October 18, and then fell slightly.

According to the current chart of business society, most of the copper spot prices in October were higher than the futures prices. The main contract is the expected price in two months. Now the basis has widened, indicating that everyone is not very optimistic about the future of copper price.

Macro factors: in early October, crude oil hit new highs and the US dollar fell sharply, boosting metal prices. Later, the economic data of China and the United States were lower than market expectations, which increased investors’ concerns about the slowdown of economic growth and put pressure on metal prices. In order to ensure market order, LME conducted copper trading investigation and made copper prices lower.

In terms of supply: the electricity price soared, the pressure on the supply side increased, and the maintenance of smelters in Guangxi was completed, but there is still a certain gap between the output and full production; The capacity utilization rate of local smelters in Jiangsu is about 50%. In September 2021, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 406000 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. From January to September 2021, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4019000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and the average price was 60400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%.

In terms of demand: power rationing in some main copper rod production areas in East and South China will affect the commencement. In September 2021, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 84.32%, an increase of 0.55% month on month. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to be 82.32% in October.

Inventory continued to decline

Based on the above situation, power restriction has an impact on the supply and demand of copper. The supply of copper and scrap copper in China is increasing, but the demand slows down. Although the power shortage may inhibit smelting, it also suppresses the growth of consumption. Although the domestic downstream end consumption performance is average, the refined copper inventory continues to fall, and will continue to decline in the future, which supports the copper price. November is the off-season for consumption, and demand is expected to weaken further. Copper prices are expected to remain weak in November.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 26, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 8200.00 yuan / ton, and the pet price was mainly stable (10.19-10.26). Compared with the same period last week, the price did not change, and the price fell by 5.03% compared with the same period last month. Pet remained weak and the negotiation atmosphere was general.

This week, the domestic pet price is stable and weak, the price is stable, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is positive. At present, the overall market operating rate is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, the atmosphere is weak, the mainstream price is about 8200 yuan / ton, there is a narrow downward trend, the manufacturers actively ship, the logistics is smooth, and the supply side is normal.

Upstream PTA operated in a narrow range, and the mainstream price was about 5300 yuan / ton. On the 20th, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5390 yuan / ton, down 2.45% yuan / ton from the previous day, up 56.58% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 5440 and settled 5410, down 90, down 1.63%.

Pet analysts of business society believe that the pet market will remain stable and weak in the short term. (to know more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods and grasp the price of commodities).