According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has fluctuated narrowly recently (12.18-12.28). On December 28th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6530 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the benchmark price was 6510 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

International crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, and there is short-term support for the cost of toluene

Recently (12.18-12.28), international crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 27th, WTI02 contract settlement is 74.11 yuan/barrel; Brent 03 contract settlement is $79.54 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance and spot supply is normal. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX prices have slightly increased due to this impact. As of the 21st, the closing prices in Asia are 992-994 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1017-1019 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. PX supply in the Asian region is normal, and crude oil prices have slightly increased recently. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

The rebound in external market prices has slightly eased the supply of toluene compared to the previous period

On the one hand, with a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 27th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in January was between 839-841 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, the domestic production of toluene and the slight decline in port inventory have eased the pressure on the supply of toluene slightly. As of December 21st, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 40000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 13000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; The demand support for industries such as downstream mixing of toluene is relatively weak, and although the supply side has slightly decreased in the short term, the port inventory base is still relatively large. It is expected that the toluene market will experience a weak consolidation in the later stage.