1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 5.71%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6450 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 5.61%.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of phosphoric acid market has declined this month. In the first half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market slightly decreased. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and yellow phosphorus have been lowered, weakening cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and market trading is limited. The company’s quotation has been lowered, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. In the second half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fell again. The raw material yellow phosphorus market continues to weaken, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The market demand is sluggish, trading is weak, and enterprise quotations have been lowered, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of December 27th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 5400-7150 yuan/ton.

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and consolidated after a slight decline this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable overall, and the supply and demand news on the market was relatively calm. As the mid month stage approaches, downstream demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have a mediocre shipping pace. In the early stage, mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, while the price of 30% grade phosphate ore has decreased by about 20-30 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low prices on site has narrowed. At the end of the month, due to the overall tight supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore, although downstream demand is weak, the phosphate ore market still shows a stable operation after a slight decline. As of December 27th, the domestic phosphate ore market price is based on around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will operate weakly