According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP market fluctuated strongly in the third week of August, and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 21, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.14% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, with a weekly increase of 0.84%.

Cause analysis

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the recent price fluctuation of propylene is cyclical, and the recent fluctuation price range has broken through. In the third week of August, the domestic propylene market price rose slightly, with the weekly low price of 6956 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the weekly high price of 6978 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of only 0.33%. At the beginning of August, the prices of some enterprises were at a high level in the range. On the 4th, the prices of some enterprises went down slightly, and on the 5th, they held steady. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month was started. On the 11th, the prices of some enterprises went down. On the 14th, the prices of some enterprises continued to decline. On the 17th, the prices of some low-cost enterprises began to rise. Some low-cost enterprises went up, and the prices were flat again today, At present, the market transaction is still between 6950 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory pressure is small. On the whole, there is no pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price dropped slightly, most of the profit margins in the downstream sector rebounded, and the overall market purchasing enthusiasm was good. At present, the market situation of propylene is fair, but the price is already at a high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly flat.

The upstream propylene breaks through the recent price fluctuation range and tends to be strong, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, in the third week of August, the market performance of PP (drawing) was stable, and the spot price was adjusted slightly. At present, the monthly high point was still about 8000 yuan / ton on August 5. In terms of inventory, PP production enterprises including two barrels of oil this week had a decline in inventory, while social inventory decreased by a small margin. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In addition, the recent extreme weather has affected the arrival of cargo, and the port inventory has also declined. In the middle and late August, there was a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply was not obvious. In June, the apparent consumption of PP also increased year on year, indicating that the consumption demand was acceptable. It is expected that the price of PP (wire drawing) will continue to be stronger.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 21, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7916.67 yuan / ton. 71% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. Previously reported Baolai petrochemical, Zhongke refining and chemical, Quanzhou, etc. are expected to be put into production at the end of August, and their impact on PP price is still small. The recent extreme weather has led to a decrease in the number of ships arriving at Hong Kong and a stronger futures market. Although the current situation has declined, it still has a positive effect on the spot market. At present, the supply and demand of domestic PP fiber material and drawing material are stable, and the operation situation is similar. It is expected that PP (fiber) will continue to be strong finishing in the near future.

The market weakness of PP melt blown materials continued, the price of domestic PP melt blown materials continued to fall, the domestic epidemic situation was generally stable, the demand for epidemic prevention products fell more seriously, the current market supply exceeded demand, and the price of PP melt blown materials continued to decline. Although the overseas demand is not decreasing, but with the collapse of several large export factories in China, the atmosphere of export market is affected and the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is intensified. The number of domestic mask factories increased by 1200% to 74000. The industry competition was strong and the profit was diluted seriously. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the news that Sinopec’s Yanshan Petrochemical and Yizheng Chemical fiber changed from directional supply to national customer sales also impacted the current market. At present, the epidemic prevention materials are more diversified, and the demand for meltblown materials is also scattered. The demand for PP (melt blown) has not improved, the business mentality is negative, and there are still many departures. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: August third week domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) rose steadily, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to fall back. At present, although news of new equipment put into production is bad for the supply side, there are also extreme weather hindering shipping, and news such as rising futures are good for spot prices. Downstream factory stock situation is general, merchants actively shipping. It is expected that the spot price of PP will continue to be stronger in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China this week was weak and fluctuated slightly, falling slightly. On Monday (August 17), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 5250.00 yuan / ton, while on Friday (August 21), the price of sample enterprises was 5133.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The price fell 39.37% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of styrene was weak and fluctuated slightly. On August 17, East China styrene closed at 5250.00 yuan / ton, while on August 21, 5100-5200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 150 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang export price. On August 17, South China styrene closed at 5200-5250 yuan / ton, and on August 21, 5150-5200 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, and the prices of the above factories were delivered.

In terms of raw materials, the recent international oil price showed a narrow wave dynamic trend, and the prices of pure benzene and ethylene both dropped slightly.

As of Thursday (August 20), the mainstream ethylene quotation was 693.25 yuan / ton, down 9.25 yuan / ton or 1.32% from 702.50 yuan / ton on Monday (August 17). The operating rate of styrene and ethylene oxide in the downstream of ethylene decreased, and the demand for raw materials procurement decreased. At the same time, the recent import of ethylene ships to the port, the supply increased significantly. Good supply and demand factors, weak market support.

As of Thursday (August 20), the mainstream quotation of pure benzene was at 3410.00 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.29% from 3420.00 yuan / ton on Monday (August 17). The price of pure benzene in East China is affected by the high level of port inventory and the forced withdrawal of spot goods, and the downstream styrene price drops, the market is short of buying gas, and the pure benzene center of gravity fluctuates and weakens, and the price drops.

In terms of inventory, the short-term oversupply situation has not changed, and the mainstream inventory is still at a high level. The arrival of styrene in port is stable, the warehouse capacity is tight, and the spot selling pressure is huge. Total inventory in East China this week was 347000 tons, down 1.81% from 353400 tons last week. This week, some of the cargo ships that failed to unload last week queued up for unloading this week due to the delay, and the de stocking progress of mainstream high inventory was slow. For domestic styrene, the domestic styrene operating rate increased slightly this week, with an average operating rate of 82.96% last week and 83.92% this week, with an increase of 0.97%. Domestic styrene supply is sufficient.

On the downstream side, the styrene downstream overall stable this week, ABS rose significantly, still maintain considerable production and sales profits.

In the PS market, as of Thursday (August 20), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 7916.67 yuan / T, which was stable compared with Monday (August 17). This week, the tight supply of goods has eased, the market continues to be weak, and there is no good news to stimulate the market to stabilize and consolidate.

In the EPS market, the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8012.50 yuan / ton as of Thursday (August 20), which was stable compared with Monday (August 17). The market trend was light and the price was temporarily stable. The downstream continues to purchase on demand, and the overall trading performance of the market is poor. Business bearish after the market, the actual operation of more stable down.

In the ABS market, as of Thursday (August 20), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 14250.00 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton or 4.40% from 13650.0 yuan / ton on Monday (August 17). This week, the decrease of ABS imported materials led to the overall supply tension, the terminal demand was fair, the petrochemical plant started to maintain full load operation, and the petrochemical plant was in a strong mood.

3、 Future prospects

Crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, ethylene falls and pure benzene is expected to decline. Next week, the cost support of styrene will weaken, and the styrene supply side will remain unchanged. However, the styrene inventory is still high and the supply pressure is still under. Although the downstream demand is good, the mainstream downstream rigid demand is mainly supported. It is expected that styrene will be dominated by weak finishing next week. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (August 17): 1850.00 yuan / ton

On August 17, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on August 14. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 1820-1900 yuan / ton.

On August 13, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 84.56, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 22.43% from the highest point of 109.01 in the cycle (August 28, 2019), and increased by 0.19% from the lowest point of 84.40 on August 03, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, in the first half of August, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride solid and content ≥ 28% was about 1564.29 yuan / ton, and the price fluctuated slightly. At present, the price range of polyaluminium chloride monitored by the trade organization is generally quoted: liquid: industrial grade, content 10%-12%) quoted price is 390-400 yuan / ton; solid: industrial grade, content 20-21% quoted price 770-860 yuan / ton, content 24% quoted price 1200 yuan / ton, content 28% price 1400-1550 yuan / ton, content is more than 30%, price 1500-1600 yuan / ton, plate and frame type: 28% yuan, price 1500-1550 yuan / ton; spray type: content is more than 30. %The price of drinking water grade is 1700 yuan / ton when the content is more than 28%; the price of food grade is about 2800 yuan / ton when the content is 30%. In the first half of August, the prices of various specifications of polyaluminum chloride were mainly stable, and a few manufacturers increased slightly. According to the manufacturers, due to the rising cost of natural gas, the cost of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers using natural gas increased, while the costs of manufacturers using pipeline gas did not change. Generally speaking, the downstream demand and transaction atmosphere still did not improve; from the middle of July to August 14, the trend showed a slight decrease Adjust the trend, the downward range is about 30 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China decreased slightly in the first half of the month, with the quotation of 357.50 yuan / ton on August 1 and 335.00 yuan / ton on August 14, down 22.5 yuan / ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, in the first half of the month, the quotation of manufacturers in hydrochloric acid market was mainly stable, and the quotation of a few enterprises changed. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shanxi Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei Weiye hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 400 yuan / ton, which is about 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 240 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporary Steady. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increasing, and now it is easy to make poison, and it is difficult to handle the procedures. The supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream enterprises have a good purchasing enthusiasm. Polyaluminum downstream: at present, there is little change in the downstream purchase of polyaluminum chloride, and the demand is relatively light. Polyaluminum manufacturers still have high inventory, high sales pressure and weak market stability. In terms of the industry, the water treatment industry did not improve much in August, and the polyaluminum market continued to be weak. The commodity prices of some enterprises were smaller and smaller than those in July, and they were mainly stable.

With regard to the future market, the business agency believes that in August, the trend of polyaluminum chloride in the water treatment industry will be mainly adjusted in a stable and small range under the premise of no fundamental changes in the industrial environment.

1、 Price trend

According to business agency data, on August 7, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3700 yuan / ton, up 33 yuan / ton or 0.94% over last week.

On August 6, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3725 yuan / ton, up 92 yuan / ton or 2.53% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of August 6, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.37 million tons, 9400 tons less than last Thursday, a decrease of 0.68%, and a decrease of 14500 tons, or 1.05%, compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily shipment volume of Zhangjiagang and Taicang this week is at a low level.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 47%, which is about 3% lower than that of last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is not different from last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 360000 tons of Xinhang energy was put into maintenance on July 25, which is expected to be maintained for about 25 days; the 450000 ton unit of Far East Union will be restarted, and the subsequent operation rate will be increased.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Ethylene glycol inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks. Although it was not caused by smooth shipment, it also improved market confidence to a certain extent. In recent years, overseas enterprises have carried out more equipment maintenance, and domestic coal-based plants are also at a low operating rate, resulting in the expected reduction in supply, which also has a supporting effect on the price. In addition, according to statistics, this week the loom operating rate increased by 3.16%, indicating that the terminal is slowly recovering. Therefore, if the inventory does not rise any more, although the demand will not improve greatly in the short term, the situation of ethylene glycol market may be improved.

At the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia rebounded after falling. At the end of the month, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, and prices in some regions rebounded. The prices in Shandong, the main production area, went up sharply. Hebei also followed the Shandong market to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, in Shandong area, the rising range of liquid ammonia in the week at the end of the month is about 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation is 2700-2800 yuan / ton.

Liquid ammonia in Shandong Province fell sharply last week, mainly due to the temporary overhaul of 800000 tons of urea plant in large factories, resulting in large quantities of liquid ammonia shipped. Affected by the rising inventory pressure, liquid ammonia gradually accumulated in Shandong region, and enterprises passively reduced the price of shipment. However, at present, the unit has returned to normal at the beginning of this week, and the liquid ammonia shipment has greatly eased. The enterprise quotation has also continued to rise, with an increase of more than 300 yuan / ton The amount of liquid ammonia in this area has returned to normal level. In the two days near the weekend, most enterprises have quoted prices to stabilize, mainly to stop rising and stabilize.

Other regions, big steady small movement, Hebei region is closely following the price trend of Shandong region, last week the price of Shandong area went down and closed down, and Hebei market also followed the downward trend. The range is about 200 yuan / ton. The volume of liquid ammonia sold to Hebei decreased this week, so the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei also rebounded, with the range of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the price has returned to the level at the beginning of last week. At present, the price of liquid ammonia in Cangzhou is not large, so the output of liquid ammonia plant in Hebei Province is still in a low level.

In the future, the business agency believes that the price of liquid ammonia has returned to stability at the end of the month. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will not change much in the near future, and the trend of various regions will be differentiated to some extent. It may lead to partial imbalance of supply due to the maintenance of some units in the short term. It is said that the large factory in Shandong may have equipment maintenance in August, which may have a great impact on the prices of Shandong and Hebei markets 。 On the demand side, the downstream procurement may slow down in the later stage, resulting in a certain pressure in the later stage of liquid ammonia supply. In addition, the export of phosphate fertilizer is affected more obviously, mainly by the overseas epidemic situation, and it is unlikely to recover in the short term. Therefore, affected by the two factors of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to be stable in the near future.

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of July 30, the price of nylon filament DTY in Jiangsu was 15366 yuan / ton, down 734 yuan / ton, 4.55%, 15.72% year-on-year; the price of nylon POY was 13080 yuan / ton, 580 yuan / ton, 4.25%, 17.22% year-on-year; the price of nylon FDY was 16150 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton, 3.58% and 19.05%, respectively.

Although the support of pure benzene is strong, the output and inventory of chemical fiber have decreased, and the downstream procurement has slowed down. The market is short-term bearish, generally let the profit to inventory. The supply of cyclohexanone is abundant, polymerization and filament enter the weak period of market, some factories reduce the negative slightly, and the overall supply is surplus. In July, the price of cyclohexanone fell by 592 yuan / ton, by 9.66%, by 834 yuan / ton, by 8.01%, and by 1234 yuan / ton, by 10.11%.

 
In July, the textile market was in the traditional off-season, and under the influence of this year’s epidemic situation, the chemical fiber export had a significant decline. From January to may 2020, China’s chemical fiber output will be 22.94 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16%. From January to may, China’s chemical fiber export was 1.6661 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%, and the export value was 2.67 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%. In July, the ex factory quotation of nylon manufacturers fell again, and the supply of raw materials was sufficient. The enterprises purchased cautiously and on bargain. In the face of weak orders, low price stimulation was the main factor, and preferential policies were auxiliary for shipment. Raw materials and orders support is not strong, nylon filament fell to comply with the market.

Business agency analysts believe that in the past few months, chemical fiber market production and export data, domestic and foreign sales have varying degrees of decline. The nylon industry is under pressure recently, and the order improvement in August may be limited, and the price of nylon filament is expected to continue to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market fell slightly in the first half of the week, and began to stabilize in the second half week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3340 yuan / ton, down 2.05% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of toluene fell slightly, affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene declined, and the superimposed flood led to poor logistics, inactive market transactions and weak prices. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. Due to the demand doubts brought about by the increase of new crown cases and the deepening of international relations confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil caused by the economic restart, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s international oil prices fluctuated higher from Monday to Thursday, fell back on Friday to adjust. At present, the crude oil price is generally in the oscillation range. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.815/barrel, or 1.86%, to close at $42.895. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market rebounded slightly. For domestic goods with bills of lading, the reference for outbound offer of domestic goods is 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10400-10500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geographical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the demand for crude oil for economic restart, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the impact of poor logistics caused by the flood situation. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5266.67 yuan / ton. The market price of DMF was stable, the price continued to rise, and the focus of negotiation shifted upward. Compared with the same period last month, the price of DMF increased by 10.10%, 5.33% compared with the same period last week, and the increase was about 100 yuan / ton.

As of July 27, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 5200 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian 5200 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Xinghua 5250 yuan / ton, Guangdong 5650 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 5400 yuan / ton/ It is 5500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang Province, 5350-5500 yuan / ton in East China market and 5500-5700 yuan / ton in South China market.

The upstream methanol was in a weak position in Guangdong last week, and the spot negotiation in the mainstream reservoir area dropped by 20 yuan / ton to 1630-1670 yuan / ton, and the nearby tanks were exported with tax included. This week, the negotiation focus of East China and South China markets was stable, and the procurement of just needed goods was mainly focused, and the operating rate decreased.

On July 26, the chemical index was 660 points, unchanged with yesterday, 35.04% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 10.37% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts believe: in the short term, there is still room for growth in the DMF market, and the rise may continue. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on July 24, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream manufacturers was 17266.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, decreased by 2.26% compared with the beginning of the month, 2.26% month on month, and 39.06% compared with the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

This week, R134a market in the refrigerant market was weak and stable, with little change. The raw material hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, but the support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, the car market demand was poor, the enterprise’s inventory was high, the shipment was under pressure, the market was not good, and the attitude of the industry was negative. However, the price of R134a was at a low level, and the enterprises had the willingness to support the price for cost reasons, so the price was weak and stable, and the decline was postponed. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 24, the average price of refrigerant R134a was around 17000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 15300-17000 yuan / ton, which was stable.

The upstream domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rose slightly. On July 24, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the supply of goods in the field was normal. Driven by the rising price of fluorite, it became a good support for the hydrofluoric acid market. However, the manufacturers reported that the recent delivery situation was poor, and the hydrofluoric acid was in the business community Acid analysts believe that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the demand for refrigerant R134a is weak, and the company’s goods are not good. It is expected that the refrigerant R134a will operate weakly and stably in the short term with little fluctuation.