1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72926.67 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 70890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.76% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 6 and fell by 5 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

Supply and demand: the supply of copper concentrate is temporarily abundant, but the disturbance of copper mine production in Peru and Chile has increased, raising the expectation of copper mine supply reduction. The supply of recycled copper has been tightened, and the tax reform policy of renewable value-added tax affects the short-term domestic supply of recycled copper. Before and after the implementation of CS No. 40 document, due to the obvious increase in the demand for bright copper with tickets in the market, the supply of goods with 13% VAT invoices is scarce and the price is high. The production profit of downstream processing plants is poor, and the demand recovery of cable enterprises is not ideal. In February, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 1.666 million, with a month on month decrease of 34.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.8%; From January to February, 4.196 million vehicles are expected to be completed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.

To sum up: the external conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased yet, the external market has broken through the upward trend, the domestic consumption is expected to pick up marginally, the domestic growth is also expected to be stable, and the copper price shock is expected to be strong.